China's crude oil imports plummet by 40%—a retreat that reflects national confidence; foreign media hail China as the "OPEC on the demand side"!

While the Strait of Hormuz was blocked and global energy markets plunged into panic, the world’s largest crude oil importer, China, did not follow suit but instead chose to "step back."

This move left the entire international energy market bewildered.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs: In June 2026, China imported 29.27 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year decline of 41.3%, with daily imports falling from around 11.5 million barrels to approximately 7.1 million barrels—a new low for the past decade in monthly figures.

The Wall Street Journal reported that such a sharp drop in imports by a single country is almost unprecedented even during periods of deep economic recession.

China’s reduced import volumes have helped ease pressure on the global market and curb rising oil prices.

Commodity traders had not anticipated this effect and are now trying to figure out how long China can sustain such a low purchasing level.

Farashahi, head of Kpler’s oil market analysis department, said jokingly: “Sometimes we say China has become OPEC on the demand side.”

Traditionally, OPEC+ has dominated the supply side, coordinating production cuts or increases to regulate global crude supply and control the core lever of oil pricing.

For decades, the global energy logic was clear: oil-producing nations dictated prices; consuming nations could only passively accept them.

But this round of market dynamics has introduced a brand-new phenomenon:

Despite significant supply disruptions globally and widespread expectations that oil prices would surge toward $140–$150, Brent crude remained persistently below $100.

Multiple investment banks, Reuters, and Bloomberg all concluded consistently: China’s proactive reduction in procurement offset the supply gap and prevented a runaway spike in oil prices.

With its status as the world’s top crude oil buyer, China can flexibly adjust “how much oil to buy,” creating substantial market influence on the demand side and emerging as a key balancing force in demand-driven dynamics.

Foreign media analysis points to three solid foundations behind China’s bold stance:

1. Adequate crude oil buffer stocks (strategic reserves + commercial storage tanks).

2. Continuous diversification of the energy mix, reducing reliance on crude oil alone.

3. Diversified import sources, breaking free from dependence on single shipping routes.

However, we must be clear: “Demand-side OPEC” is merely a metaphor used by the media—it differs fundamentally from the real OPEC.

OPEC is a coalition of multiple oil-producing nations engaging in coordinated, long-term, active market interventions;

China, by contrast, is a single sovereign nation whose crude oil procurement adjustments primarily serve domestic energy security and enterprise cost management—internal economic decisions without any mechanism for unified coordination with other consumer countries.

China does not aim to manipulate oil prices.

Ultimately, oil prices remain determined by multiple factors: OPEC+ output levels, global macroeconomic conditions, dollar liquidity, and geopolitical conflicts.

In simple terms: China can moderate the extent of price surges, but cannot unilaterally determine the long-term trend of oil prices;

When global demand recovers and domestic inventories decline, import volumes will naturally rebound.

For decades, the main conflict has been between Western consumer nations and OPEC oil-producing nations.

Now, a new variable has entered the scene: China—the largest single buyer—this alone is enough to shock the international community!

China’s objective hard power is undeniable—but it should not be exaggerated.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872185903041546/

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