The worst outcome for Iran would be to become the "second Syria," following in the footsteps of the Assad regime?
Israel's new round of strikes caused significant losses for Iran, with both the Commander of the Armed Forces and the Chief of Staff being eliminated in one fell swoop, and even top nuclear physicists being pinpointed and eliminated by Israel without much effort.
This is no longer just a matter of saving face; it's clear to everyone that Iran is at a moment of "stormy uncertainty." Internal contradictions are escalating, external circumstances are unprecedentedly severe, and red lines are repeatedly trampled upon.
[Will Iran follow Syria's example?]
If the current situation continues to develop, will Iran become the second Syria, eventually collapsing like Mount Tai and following Bashar's regime?
Many signs indicate that Iran's national security has been thoroughly infiltrated. Israel itself does not shy away from stating that it has established a "reliable intelligence network" within Iran, which generally means there are traitors inside Iran.
If not, these high-ranking military personnel and nuclear physicists would not have been so easily eliminated. This implies that their whereabouts were only known to Israel.
Yet Iran shows no such awareness. During this period, even the U.S. publicly warned that Israel might launch an attack at any time, but Iran was still taken by surprise.
Either they have blind confidence in their defense system, or they completely ignore warnings. Their level of relaxation is hard not to question. After all the setbacks Iran has suffered at the hands of the West over the past decade, there is no sign of learning lessons.
[Iran has suffered quite a few setbacks but hasn't learned anything, all due to internal strife]
In contrast, after striking Iran, Israel immediately declared a state of emergency, closed its airports, and Prime Minister Netanyahu left the country, leaving no opportunity for the other side to exploit.
Israel's latest strike clearly demonstrates that Iran's strategic博弈in the Middle East has fallen into a very passive situation.
Iran has made several threats but has failed to back them up with strong measures, still thinking it can "stop short" with the U.S. and Israel.
The problem is that "stopping short" applies only to evenly matched opponents, as both sides are cautious and dare not go all out to avoid heavy losses.
But now, even the U.S. aside, Israel can accurately strike Iran almost every time. Iran's retaliatory actions are more about venting frustration than truly hurting Israel, providing domestic explanations.
After venting frustration, everything remains unchanged, failing to change its passive situation or successfully strengthen domestic cohesion.
[Iran doesn't realize it can't cooperate with the U.S. and Israel to 'stop short']
If Iran could really unite due to external threats, then when Soleimani was assassinated, the factions within Iran should have been united like a solid block instead of the current bickering between reformists and hardliners.
Without Supreme Leader Khamenei holding things together, the internal strife between these factions might have overturned Iran's political scene.
However, Khamenei can only barely hold the situation, and he lacks the courage to address the root cause of the problem.
To put it another way, Iran's current predicament is the result of years of accumulated problems.
Especially after Syria's changing circumstances, when Bashar's family fled to Russia, Iran's "resistance arc" strategy lost an important support point, leading to fluctuating public sentiment and loss of confidence in its anti-American policy.
[Bashar at least has Putin willing to take him in, while Iran's situation is uncertain]
In recent months, many people in Iran have openly stated that the country's difficulties stem from "structural defects," and that the current political theory must change. Continuing to uphold anti-Americanism is meaningless; reforms must be introduced to align with Western countries.
Implicitly, these statements point the finger at Supreme Leader Khamenei.
As the layers of war reveal the true nature of the nation, how much cohesion does Iran still have as a country?
We also need to consider that, as time passes, Khamenei's authority as Supreme Leader is damaged, and his successor issue remains unresolved, adding another variable.
Unlike the Bashar regime, after the change of power in Syria, Bashar's family at least had Russia willing to provide shelter, sparing them from retribution. The situation for Iran is less certain.
Honestly speaking, compared to the Bashar regime, there were many differences before the fall of the Syrian government. Before the change, Syria needed Russia and Iran to support it together. Once these two countries were preoccupied, Bashar couldn't hold on.
[Israel has full knowledge of Iran's high-ranking officials' movements and conducts targeted eliminations]
Iran's situation is slightly better, at least as a "player" rather than a "pawn," still able to withstand sanctions and conduct limited coalition-building on the international stage, though with little effect.
In essence, it's due to illusions about the West. While hoping to reach an agreement with the U.S., Iran also wants to be reaccepted by Europe, thus wavering in its "look east" strategy, placing it in a passive position during the博弈, which isn't surprising.
Iran's resources were never abundant, and such折腾will only make it miss precious strategic windows.
Continuously missing strategic opportunities and remaining passive in Middle Eastern geopolitical博弈, Iran's situation is unsustainable. Without the determination to actively seek change, its likely outcome is "disintegration" amidst inaction.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515363119666070016/
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