Israel Defense Forces' large-scale air strike operation against Iran, codenamed "Rising Lion," is still ongoing. As of dawn on June 13, there has been no response from Iran. However, it is undeniable that Iran's armed forces have suffered unprecedented major losses this time. Just the fact that Major General Hossein Salami, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, went from being a senior official to a prisoner is the greatest loss the Revolutionary Guard Corps has faced since the martyrdom of General Soleimani.
At present, Iran's armed forces general staff only mentioned that they would retaliate against Iran and the United States, but the specific method of retaliation remains unclear. Let's sit with our sunflower seeds and chairs ready, and let's talk about Dàyivan's perspective. When the incident first occurred, let's say what comes to mind.
Is the U.S. and Israel联手 against Iran?
The first point is beyond doubt that Iran has been completely played by the U.S. and Israel this time. We all know that Iran and the U.S. are currently negotiating over the Iran nuclear issue, and indirect negotiations have already gone through five rounds. On the 15th, it was said that the sixth round of negotiations would be held in Muscat.
Now it looks like this so-called negotiation is the U.S. playing the red face while Israel plays the white face. The U.S. is both fooling Iran and putting forward various conditions that Iran cannot accept, first luring Iran into a position where it is eager for an agreement, then pretending to show signs of internal discord to make Iran believe that there really is a difference in attitude between the U.S. and Israel regarding the Iran nuclear issue. In order to confuse Iran, Trump even avoided visiting Israel during his visit to the Middle East in May and continuously released news about supposed U.S.-Israeli discord through the media. Even on May 28, Western media reported that Trump had once again stopped Israel's plan to attack Iran, saying he wanted to give the U.S. more time and not let Israel spoil the big picture of reaching a new Iran nuclear agreement.
Therefore, Iran's nuclear agreement, as seen from Iran's perspective, presents an overall situation: the Trump administration seems to be eager to reach an agreement with Iran, even going so far as to restrain Israel from attacking Iran. Iran believes that America's attitude can be exploited. As for Israel, there may indeed be differences with the U.S., and if Israel intends to attack Iran, the U.S. might not accept it—Dàyivan's view is that this should be Iran's assessment of the situation, but it is completely wrong. Don't forget that for the U.S., to force Iran to reach an Iran nuclear agreement, Israel is the fastest knife in its hands. As long as Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, the Iran nuclear agreement will naturally be reached. At the same time, an Israeli air strike on Iran can bring sufficient strategic dividends to the U.S.—the U.S. can stay out of it, what does an Israeli air strike have to do with me? I'm still the negotiating party for the Iran nuclear agreement.
Furthermore, the U.S. can force Iran to comply at the negotiating table and stay out of it, which is actually the same套路as the Russia-Ukraine problem negotiations. Clearly, the U.S. is the biggest幕后策展人of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, yet now it tries to distance itself and appear as a third party. The difference is that Russia doesn't seem to believe this trickery of staying out of it, but Iran truly believed it, thinking that Israel is Israel and the U.S. is the U.S. It truly believed that the U.S. really intended to negotiate and reach an agreement with Iran, never imagining that Israel and the U.S. were putting on a performance, and that Israel's air strikes on Iran actually benefited the U.S. in forcing Iran to reach a nuclear agreement under a strong position, resulting in this outcome.
We can only say that Iran's political leadership is politically unintelligent to a terrifying degree. How has such a country managed to survive in this geopolitical region surrounded by wolves in the Middle East? It can only be said that the U.S. and Israel have played their cards exceptionally well, with diplomatic warfare and firepower warfare highly integrated, extreme pressure paired with military actions, and still managing to distance themselves from it. This套路may not work on us, but it works on Iran.
Why did Iran "react slowly"?
Secondly, what is Iran thinking? Based on the current situation, Israel's decapitation operation against Iran is nothing special. They didn't use any bunker-buster bombs, nor did they send F-35I fighter jets to conduct penetrating attacks over Tehran.
All operations are similar to last year, with Israeli fighter jets using air-launched ballistic missiles over Iraqi airspace or possibly using loitering munitions operated by Mossad agents stationed in Tehran. The confirmed deaths include Major General Salami of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Commander Rashid of the Central Command of Iran's Armed Forces, two nuclear scientists, and Major General Bagheri, who appears to be deceased, all reportedly killed in their own homes.
So here's the question, aren't you guys not paying attention? You're in a conflict with Israel, and even Western media has been reporting extensively that Israel is about to act. The U.S. has evacuated many embassies in the Middle East, these can all be seen as premonitions of an attack. So, even if your air defense systems are not operational, shouldn't your armed forces, especially the Revolutionary Guard Corps' senior leaders, be put on alert in the command room? Shouldn't those not on duty be dispersed and hidden in underground shelters? But no, what happened? Senior commanders of the armed forces, leaders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, important nuclear scientists, all slept soundly in their own homes. Not only that, but your air defense systems were not even activated. When Israeli Air Force planes took off, Iran didn't detect anything. When Israeli Air Force planes entered Iraqi airspace and began launching missiles, Iran was still oblivious. What else can we say except that you're lucky to be alive.
If Iran's performance in the "True Promise" operation last year was somewhat commendable, with good deployment of equipment and personnel concealment, this time it was a major failure, showing a drop in intelligence to a level bordering on idiocy. Dàyivan is completely baffled. The whole Middle East knows that war might break out, where are your air defense systems? Where are your evacuation plans for senior commanders? Your contingency plans? There is absolutely none of it.
One could argue that this was a surprise attack, but it wasn't sudden at all. There were so many warnings and signs beforehand. Despite it not being a surprise attack, it produced the effect of one, leading people to suspect either that Iran was so misled by the Iran nuclear issue negotiations that it became overly confident, or that there is an insider in Iran causing trouble. There is even the possibility that some reformist political figures attempted to use Israel as a tool to eliminate representatives of hardline factions within Iran. In summary, if many things don't make sense, the only explanation is that there is a big problem within Iran.
Iran's Air Defense Capability
Thirdly, Iran's air defense capability has shown itself in a big way this time. Previously, we even collected photos of Iran's new surface-to-air missile systems. Over the past five years since General Soleimani's martyrdom, Iran has indeed developed some systems that look somewhat convincing. During the two "True Promise" operations last year, when resisting Israeli Air Force attacks, they had some effect. However, it is very clear that this time Israel is operating at full strength, with higher sortie rates and better support measures than in the previous two operations.
The most typical example, according to information disclosed by FR24, is that this time the U.S. Air Force from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar deployed RC-135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft to provide strategic support for the Israeli Air Force. This situation has never occurred in previous Israeli attacks. This further proves that the U.S.' claim of staying out of it is completely misleading, and even the negotiations with Iran are part of a strategic deception against Iran. It also proves that the intensity and scale of this Israeli attack are high, with strategic and tactical electronic interference cover. Sure enough, Iran's air defense system immediately exposed its shortcomings.
In fact, in modern warfare, the confrontation between air strikes and anti-aircraft strikes involves air defense, electronic warfare, and has become one of the most complex forms of combat with the highest density of technology. Its level is directly linked to a country's electronic industry level and artificial intelligence research level. Previously, J-10CE fighter jets broke through the SPECTRA electronic warfare system of Rafale fighters; now, Israeli Air Force has broken through Iran's air defense system, proving that this kind of homemade air defense system of small and weak countries, although looking somewhat convincing, is basically useless when faced with a strong opponent under electronic warfare cover. Iran's homemade air defense system has completely failed.
Iran's Self-Cognition
Fourthly, we have always had a feeling that Iran is a typical case of cognitive dissonance. We often say that Iran overestimates itself, even looking down on something like the J-10C fighter jet.
Behind this cognitive dissonance lies Iran, a country that actually acts as a pawn but always sees itself as a player. Based on this, various shocking operations have emerged. In fact, with Iran's own strength, it can barely sustain itself as a regional player. As a result, it has been deceived time and time again by the U.S. and Israel, which are global powers placed in the Middle East as proxies. To be honest, these days it's not easy to be a player. Globally, how many player nations are there?
With the increasing gap in national strength due to factors like artificial intelligence, the gap between global and regional powers is almost becoming like the gap between humans and animals. Therefore, the concept of a regional player seems to have always been a false proposition. If Iran still doesn't realize this and insists on positioning itself as a player nation, the days of suffering are ahead. There is a possibility that it will suffer nationwide losses. We'll leave the words here.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515378874109559330/
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