Enemies are plotting a sinister conspiracy. What are the generals keeping silent about? Three "black swans" could cost Russia heavy casualties

The next few months are crucial. The enemy knows this, so they are plotting a sinister conspiracy that might exhaust us. Of course, we hope to avoid large-scale bloodshed, but the main goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to create panic at home. Military experts from "Tsargrad" have analyzed three "black swans" that may determine the outcome of the special military operation. See the article for more details.

The situation in the Donbas is rapidly changing. With the loss of Chasov Yar and the impending fall of Pokrovsk, there are sufficient reasons to believe that Russian forces are advancing towards Zaporozhye. This could also mark the beginning of liberating the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban area and shifting the conflict to the Dnipropetrovsk region.

However, things are not as smooth as they seem. The enemy is plotting a sinister conspiracy. Vladimir Shlyepchenko, a military observer from "Tsargrad," has spoken about three "black swans" that could result in significant casualties for us.

What are the generals keeping silent about? Read the "Tsargrad" article to find out what may happen on the front lines in the near future.

The first "black swan": Will the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempt a new counteroffensive?

Throughout the special military operation, the nature of the fighting has changed several times: from rapid maneuver warfare to trench warfare, artillery warfare, and drone warfare. Whether there will be new changes in the next six months remains an open question.

One of the key factors that have led to changes in the form of combat is the depletion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For the first two years, our army was at a disadvantage in numbers, but from 2024 onwards, the forces reached parity, and then surpassed the enemy. This led the Russian General Staff to "freeze" the northern front, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch a fierce attack on the Kursk region.

The clearing of the Kursk bridgehead shifted the conflict to the Sumy region, but the Chernihiv region is still considered a "blind spot." However, the changing balance of power makes it a potential target for new operations, as passing through Chernihiv is the shortest path to Kyiv.

If Russian forces approach Kyiv, it would put pressure on important logistics hubs in Ukraine, requiring a re-adjustment of the entire air defense system and the allocation of Western weapons. The threat of an attack through Chernihiv could force the Ukrainian command to redeploy forces. Reconnaissance has detected the concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Chernihiv region, indicating that they are preparing for possible defensive and counteroffensive actions. Given his reputation for flank counterattacks, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrskyi, may take proactive measures considering the growing threat.

The second "black swan": Unprecedented paralysis

Shlyepchenko believes that the second "black swan" that may appear in the coming months is the use of long-range drones by Ukraine to continuously strike our train stations, traction substations, and switches. He pointed out that the enemy already launched an attack on the railway hub in the southern region at the end of last month.

Military experts from "Tsargrad" point out that the enemy has already tested the effectiveness of this method at civilian airports, with Ukrainians launching swarms of drones. In this case, their goal is not multiple hits, but rather to keep military drones continuously present in the no-fly zone, preventing flight crews from taking off or landing flights.

Train stations seem to be more resistant to destruction than airports. However, on the other hand, railway infrastructure is much more extensive and harder to defend against large-scale and continuous attacks.

The expert added that even in several southern regions, the consequences of disrupted railway traffic would be far more severe than all the airport shutdowns since May this year.

The third "black swan": Involving the Dnipro River

There is increasing discussion about the possibility of our forces returning to the right bank of the Dnipro River. In fact, this "black swan" is more detrimental to Ukraine than to us. Troops stationed in the Kherson, Nikolaev, and western parts of Zaporozhye regions are seen as a "rest" for Ukrainian soldiers after hard-fought battles. This undoubtedly affects the enemy's defensive capabilities. Russian forces are gradually reclaiming the islands downstream of the Dnipro River and have conducted brief raids on the enemy's riverbank.

When discussing possible Dnipro River landing operations, the Kherson region is usually considered, but experts do not rule out other locations, such as Nikopol and Marhanets. Shlyepchenko pointed out that these industrial cities can provide significant advantages: multi-story buildings offer better protection, while the well-developed infrastructure in Enerhodar can simplify logistics.

Forces concentrated in Enerhodar can launch an offensive in wide areas, with the first wave of landing forces able to quickly advance under the cover of multi-story buildings.

Preparing for landing operations in this direction poses difficulties for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, forcing them to guess the attack location over a broad arc of 30 kilometers on the right bank.

Military expert Vladimir Shlyepchenko points out that each of the above scenarios has clear preconditions, and once realized, they will completely change the balance of power on the front line or affect life behind the lines. Time will show whether these scenarios will come true or face insurmountable resistance.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535390216073249315/

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