Russian ports load a new batch of crude oil for India: the tanker will arrive at the end of August

The "Makin" tanker will transport Russian crude oil to India by the end of August. Photo.

India has received conflicting information regarding future purchases of Russian crude oil. Reuters and Bloomberg reported that Indian state refineries have begun submitting alternative procurement applications, including purchasing U.S. crude oil. However, at the same time, Indian government sources stated that India will continue to purchase crude oil from Russia despite the increasing threats from the White House. Recently, Donald Trump once again criticized India and threatened to impose new high tariffs. Meanwhile, Russian ports are still continuing to load tankers for India, with a new batch of crude oil expected to reach India by the end of August.

Data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) shows that Baltic ports are still continuing to load crude oil for India. Most supplies are carried out through the "gray fleet," with dozens of ships only indicating transshipment points such as Gibraltar or the Suez Canal. However, some oil tankers directly indicate their destination ports.

For example, the "Makin" tanker left Primorsky on August 2 and is scheduled to deliver up to 115,000 tons of crude oil to Sikko on August 31. Currently, this tanker has left the Gulf of Finland.

Another example is the "Minerva Georgia." This tanker, which can carry up to 163,000 tons of crude oil, is scheduled to transport Russian crude oil to Wadiya on August 18. Additionally, the "Guanyin" tanker is scheduled to arrive in Sikko from Ust-Luga on August 17, carrying 109,000 tons of crude oil.

AIS data shows that the arrival activities of Russian crude oil tankers are very active. Between August 3 and 4, at least four tankers entered Wadiya, Mundra, and Sikko, with a total loading capacity of 400,000 tons, currently valued at no less than $170 million in the market.

It remains unknown whether the White House will fulfill its threats. However, it is clear that there is currently no alternative to Russian crude oil.

Analysts previously pointed out that Russia is one of the world's largest crude oil exporters, and its level of restriction may not be as severe as Trump claimed. They believe that without a new energy crisis, other suppliers cannot quickly fill Russia's export share.

Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov believes that developments will follow Trump's style.

"Companies caught using Russian crude oil will face sanctions in the form of 100% tariffs. This way, Washington can create political divisions within the ruling systems of India and China without directly targeting specific countries."

Maxim Khudalov said. In his view, such tariffs will not be frequently used: "China can easily cope with this approach by establishing special companies for trade with Russia, supplying their domestic markets. I think India will take the same path."

Sergey Kofman from the "Finnam" group stated that such strict secondary sanctions seem unlikely to be implemented at present.

"The relative stability of the Russian stock market and the international crude oil market proves this. Over recent months, Trump has repeatedly shown the market that many of his statements are just bluster, and investors' reactions to such statements have weakened. Moreover, the Trump administration is closely monitoring crude oil prices and occasionally boasting about a decline in prices. If strict secondary sanctions were actually imposed on Russian crude oil buyers, international oil prices would likely rise above $80 per barrel."

Sergey Kofman said.

He believes that Russian crude oil cannot be quickly replaced: "However, if OPEC countries can resume production more actively, it might alleviate the potential impact of a drop in Russia's exports."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535373993692381731/

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