As the Canadian federal election campaign focused partly on national sovereignty, Canada's two major parties adopted starkly different advertising strategies. A close analysis of digital ad impressions on Facebook and Instagram reveals that the battleground extends beyond ideology to include demographic and geographic factors.
While both the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party invested in advertising in Canada's most populous province, their strategies reveal a deeper story.
According to a study conducted by the Social Media Lab at Toronto Metropolitan University, the Conservative Party is betting on Gen Z and millennial voters, while the Liberal Party is doubling down on older voters and francophone voters in Quebec.
As part of the "Election Transparency and Accountability" initiative, researchers used PoliDashboard, an open-source platform they developed, to examine political ad spending on Facebook and Instagram under Meta's umbrella for Canadians.
Researchers conducted a detailed analysis of ad exposure data for all major party campaigns. This article focuses specifically on the online ads purchased by the Liberals and Conservatives, which are currently leading in polls.
The Conservatives Target Young Voters
Based on ad exposure data from March 23 to 30 (the week following the election results), there was a clear generational gap in digital promotions. The Conservatives primarily targeted Canadians under 45, while the Liberals focused more on those aged 55 and above.
A significant portion of the Conservatives' Facebook and Instagram ad exposure came from males aged 25 to 34, who accounted for 16% of the party's total ad exposure. Additionally, males aged 18 to 24, females aged 25 to 34, and females aged 35 to 44 also contributed to the exposure; these three groups collectively accounted for 10% of the total. This indicates that the Conservatives are clearly making efforts to connect with Gen Z and millennial voters.
In contrast, the Liberals' ads received higher exposure among older age groups, with women aged 65 and above contributing the largest share (21%) to the exposure. Women aged 55 to 64 and men over 65 respectively accounted for 12% of the Liberals' ad exposure. This distribution suggests that the Liberals are strategically focusing on older voters, who are known for high voter turnout on election day.
[Estimated percentage of conservative and liberal meta-ad displays by demographic group. (PoliDashboard/Social Media Lab), CC BY]
The conventional view holds that young people prefer progressive politics and parties, but opinion polls show that, against the backdrop of a housing and affordability crisis, Canadian youth are increasingly leaning toward conservatism. The Conservatives appear prepared to use online ads to turn young voters' economic dissatisfaction into votes.
Meanwhile, the Liberals seem to be consolidating support from long-time voters, particularly older women, who represent the largest age and gender group likely to vote for the party. This is a story of two constituencies and two distinct paths to victory.
Exposure data alone cannot confirm clear age or gender targeting or guarantee support. Sometimes, a particular group may simply have a greater interest in a party's content, resulting in more exposure. These numbers can reflect both how parties distribute their ads and how voters are drawn to content that resonates most with them.
Differences Exist Regionally
The differences between the two parties extend beyond age and gender to geography. Both parties prioritized advertising in Canada's most populous provinces—British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec—but their approaches varied.
The Conservatives garnered a larger share of ad exposure in British Columbia, accounting for 17% of their total ad exposure;相比之下，自由党仅获得11%。安大略省的反差更为明显，保守党54%的广告曝光量集中在安大略省，而自由党仅为31%。
This difference is likely a deliberate strategic targeting approach. Ontario, with its 122 federal ridings (approximately 36% of all seats in the lower house), is a key battleground. The Conservatives' strategy seems to depend on flipping crucial seats in the province, especially in the suburbs and exurbs, where the outcome of the election may hinge. Combined with their influence among younger voters, this strategy indicates that the Conservatives will go all out to make progress in the most important areas.
[Bar chart showing estimated percentages of meta-ad displays by province. (PoliDashboard/Social Media Lab)]
Meanwhile, the Liberals are doubling down in Quebec, one of Canada's largest and culturally unique provinces. The Liberals are clearly launching an offensive here. 29% of the Liberals' ad exposure comes from this province, compared to only 3% for the Conservatives.
Quebec has long been a stronghold for the Liberals, particularly in urban areas like Montreal. Despite the province's turbulent situation and being deeply affected by local issues, the Liberals' extensive ad campaign shows that they are working hard to defend their current 33 seats and possibly increase their number of new seats.
Two Parties, Two Visions
Both the Liberals and the Conservatives condemned former U.S. President Donald Trump's frequent suggestions that Canada would become the "51st state," and the vast majority of Canadians agree with this stance.
With external pressure from Trump's tariff threats increasing and democratic norms being tested across the border, this election is not just about policies or parties: it's about protecting Canada's independence, values, and global standing.
However, the trends found in the research indicate that each camp has its own advantages and targets different voters. The Conservatives are betting on young, digitally engaged Canadians, particularly in Ontario. The Liberals are strengthening their support among older voters and seeking to solidify their foothold in Quebec, where cultural identity and party loyalty remain crucial.
Of course, ad exposure is just one piece of the puzzle. Factors such as grassroots enthusiasm, candidates' appeal, and regional dynamics also play a role. Nevertheless, ad exposure data still provides a unique perspective on each party's campaign strategies and reveals which voter groups each party believes they must win over to succeed in Canada.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496710583379673600/
Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone. Please express your opinions by using the "thumbs up/thumbs down" buttons below.