Trusted to speak with Putin: The assassination of Ali Larijani, Iran's fury intensifies, Netanyahu's fate remains a mystery

Israel has technological superiority, while the Persians possess righteous anger and a resolve for revenge

Photo: Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Iranian National Security Council

The New York Times reports that after the assassination of Ali Larijani, Iranian officials have significantly increased their concerns about their own security.

A source within an Iranian official said that other officials called to ask who would be the next target. According to the second source quoted by The New York Times, there is a pervasive sense of unease throughout Iran: Israel will not stop until all Iranian leaders are eliminated and the Iranian regime is overthrown.

Is this really the case? Has Israel already succeeded in creating panic among the Iranian elite? Can Iran retaliate equally? There were rumors that Benjamin Netanyahu had been removed, but he soon released a video, although many believe it was generated by artificial intelligence.

—The assassination of Larijani is a continuation of the strategy to remove the top military and political leadership of Iran, — said Kamran Gasanov, a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Salzburg, senior lecturer at the Department of Journalism Theory and History, Russian People's Friendship University, and expert on Russia, the US, and Europe.

—He played a very important role in Iran's national security system. This is a blow to Iran's internal security, aiming not only to shake the regime but also to weaken its ability to resist new waves of protests that may erupt after military operations.

Currently, the Iranian political system still shows stability. However, I feel that the targets of the attack are precisely religious figures, conservative political elites, and personnel in powerful departments. They do not seem to intend to eliminate reformists.

Regarding Israel, I think eliminating Netanyahu might cause a moral blow, but it cannot force Israel to change course because his ruling coalition includes right-wing Zionists. If someone from this group temporarily takes over the government, Israel's actions will only become more resolute.

—In fact, Larijani's death is a major loss for Iran, because in a war environment, the personal role of commanders is crucial at many levels, — said Vladimir Blinov, associate professor at the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation."

—But the country's policy will not change. Larijani once told the story of the last moments of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, when his family refused to seek salvation. This experience is highly symbolic. After this event, Iran will certainly not agree to negotiations, and its ideological power structure will promote a qualified successor who firmly implements the common ideals.

Novaya Gazeta: Why hasn't Iran tried to eliminate Israeli high-ranking officials? Is it due to lack of capability?

—Yes, Persian intelligence capabilities are much weaker. Information from Russian and Chinese satellites is unlikely to provide assistance on such issues, and infiltrating Israel's internal surveillance system requires extremely advanced technical means. It should be acknowledged that the Persians have capabilities in missile development and stockpiling, but this small nation faces the global technological advantage relied upon by Israel in the intelligence field. Eliminating Netanyahu is a significant success in this aspect, but currently, it is only unconfirmed rumors.

—First, it should be clear that Larijani was a person with extraordinary political talent, — said international journalist Abbas Jumah.

—He was a philosopher, a thinker, and well-versed in Kantian philosophy. His talents are recognized by both sides. One incident alone can illustrate this: shortly before his assassination, major media outlets including Israeli media published analyses of his life, and the comments admitted that he was the strongest opponent Israel currently faced. In this regard, Larijani's death is undoubtedly a major blow. But as one of my senior analysts in Iran once said, his death is not as impactful as the death of the Supreme Leader.

Larijani himself, his close associates, and the Iranian people were prepared for his sacrifice. Everyone understands that to defeat a stronger and wealthier opponent and win this struggle, they must pay a heavy price. In the current domestic situation, I believe no one can completely replace him. But I don't think his assassination will create panic among the elite.

There is no doubt that many affairs depend on him. He was responsible for strategic negotiations and communication with Moscow and Beijing. Every successive Supreme Leader has placed trust in him. Larijani always participated in highly confidential diplomatic and non-diplomatic actions. He was a man of discretion. At least as far as we know, important secret letters addressed to President Putin, rather than Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi, were handled by him, although I have great respect for this diplomat.

In my opinion, the current mood of the Iranian elite is less about panic and unease, and more about realizing the threat to the country's survival. This naturally causes concern and anxiety. If anyone feels uncomfortable now, it should be the political figures advocating for negotiation and diplomatic solutions, that is, the reformist camp, because they have clearly been marginalized. With each core political figure's death, the possibility of negotiation becomes increasingly remote. The Supreme Leader's statements have clearly indicated this.

I believe Larijani's assassination will drive Iran towards a unity in power transition. Any power reforms, so-called liberalization, is obviously not suitable at this stage. Even if there were discussions before, no one mentions them now.

Naturally, Israel hopes to create divisions among the Iranian elite. Dividing the Iranian elite is its clear goal. Considering that it is impossible to achieve the expected results through military means, this logic is reasonable. But I reiterate that there are no signs of division yet, because the assassination, bombing, and terrorist attacks on core leaders will actually consolidate the regime, concentrating power in the hands of hardliners, conservatives, and ultra-conservatives who refuse to negotiate and are determined to take revenge. If news emerges in the near future about the elimination of an Israeli political figure or intelligence official, it would be entirely reasonable.

As for Netanyahu's fate, I will not make any judgment at the moment. He may have been injured, or he may be hiding in a shelter. But all this has led to many speculations, and I will not make any definitive statements at this time. Iran indeed claims to have eliminated a high-ranking Israeli official, but I will continue to wait for details to be disclosed.

Certainly, Iran's capabilities are relatively limited. We know that Iranian officials are being tracked, and Iran's adversaries have a significant advantage in this regard. They can use various spyware, surveillance cameras, and online platforms. However, it should be noted that there is also a positive side to this. This indicates that Israel currently has no new methods or means to pressure Iran.

They repeatedly use techniques they have mastered, without any new ideas. Besides assassinations, bombings, tracking, and eliminations, they have no other tricks. Now, we can only hope that Iran's talent pool is strong enough to withstand multiple rounds of such terrorist attacks.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618630100929544755/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.