Could Israel potentially use nuclear weapons if the war with Iran does not end quickly?

Recently, David Sacks, the artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency affairs chief appointed by Trump, expressed this concern, stating that now is the best time to "declare victory and end the war," as Iran's military forces have already been severely damaged. Otherwise, Israel is likely to consider using nuclear weapons.

But Trump doesn't believe it

However, shortly after, Trump directly denied Sachs' statement and emphasized that Israel "will never do this."

Later, as expected, Trump changed his tone again, turning his attention to Iran, claiming that if Tehran had nuclear weapons, they would not hesitate to use them, "destroying the entire Middle East."

In fact, whether Israel actually has nuclear weapons has long been a controversial topic. At least until now, the Israeli government has never officially admitted to possessing nuclear weapons, but it also does not explicitly deny it, maintaining a rather ambiguous stance.

Israel's nuclear strike targets documents exposed in 2025

On the official level, the most explicit statement came in 2023, when the Minister of Heritage, Amichai Eliyahu, publicly advocated using nuclear bombs to flatten Gaza.

Although Israel has repeatedly hinted at having nuclear weapons in a subtle way, under the protection of the US and Western countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency has long ignored this issue, never conducting on-site inspections of Israel's nuclear facilities. On the other hand, it has been harshly targeting Iran, frequently imposing strict supervision and sanctions on Iran.

In addition, Israel has always refused to accept the international oversight of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, yet has never faced any substantial sanctions for this.

In contrast, Iran merely tried to play the "nuclear card" to gain relief from the Western sanctions, but even the right to peacefully use nuclear energy was not allowed - such double standards highlight the distortion of the international non-proliferation system dominated by the US and Western countries.

If Trump had any sense, he wouldn't plunge into the quagmire of the Middle East war

Although Trump solemnly assured that Israel would not use nuclear weapons, if his words were effective, he wouldn't have been led around by Netanyahu for so long.

In fact, Israel's military decisions are almost not entirely controlled by the United States. The recent operation that killed Raisi was another "independent move" by Israel.

Therefore, we should not underestimate the possibility of Israel panicking and taking extreme actions. After all, Israel has already killed over 70,000 civilians in Gaza despite international criticism, and even dared to use white phosphorus bombs against residential areas in Lebanon. Therefore, it is not unthinkable that Israel might use nuclear weapons in a war with Iran if the situation turns unfavorable.

Israel dares to throw white phosphorus bombs into residential areas, what else can't it do?

In short, the fundamental reason why Israel is so arrogant and dares to defy the world is because it has the United States behind it, which will cover up for whatever "unthinkable" things Israel does.

If Israel really decides to use nuclear weapons against Iran, the nuclear warheads are likely to be carried by the "Jericho-3" ballistic missile - this is currently the most reliable strategic strike platform theoretically available to Israel, with a range exceeding 4,000 kilometers. However, there is no conclusive evidence indicating that Israel has conducted "two-way combination" tests between missiles and nuclear warheads. Previous test launches of the "Jericho-3" mainly used conventional warheads, maintaining Israel's ambiguous nuclear deterrence strategy.

The number of "Jericho-3" test launches is extremely limited

On the other hand, the nuclear dilemma that Israel faces is also obvious: its territory has no strategic depth at all. If Israel uses nuclear weapons against Iran, it may lead Iran to break Supreme Leader Khamenei's decree - Iran does not even need to manufacture proper nuclear bombs, as dirty bombs alone could cause severe damage to Israel.

Therefore, while using nuclear weapons against Iran may appear to be a one-sided destructive strike, it could actually result in a disastrous outcome for both sides.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7618549963047420435/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.