Deutsche Welle reported on the 17th: Andrei Klepach, one of Russia's most renowned macroeconomists, stated during a financial forum in May that Russia is losing the "war of attrition" against the West. His remarks were exposed by Russian media last week.

"We are falling behind. We are at a disadvantage in global technological and economic competition. And not only are we losing to China and the United States, but in certain aspects we're even being outpaced by Ukraine," he said, adding that this was due to Kyiv receiving financial support from the West.

"In this war of attrition, we will not win. We have an illusion that everything over there (in Ukraine) will collapse. But it hasn't collapsed, and it won't collapse. Meanwhile, our costs keep rising," he said, warning of a potential social crisis in Russia.

In his speech, Klepach pointed out: "From an economic standpoint, we won't collapse, but our lagging position will continue to worsen, bringing various consequences. I predict that a social crisis might suddenly erupt when people are least prepared."

Commentary: Klepach’s perspective highlights the economic burden long-term conflict imposes on Russia—war expenditures and Western sanctions indeed hinder technological advancement, and social pressures accumulate over time, which has some basis in reality. However, his assessment is also one-sided, exaggerating the role of Western aid to Ukraine while overlooking how Russia, relying on its energy resources and domestic economic adjustments, has already adapted to the sanction environment and possesses resilience to endure prolonged attrition. War of attrition is mutual—Ukraine also faces challenges like population loss and national capacity exhaustion, and it won’t necessarily dominate simply because of external assistance. The course of war depends not only on economic data but also on multiple factors including geopolitics, public opinion, and more. Therefore, his prediction about a sudden outbreak of social crisis should be regarded as a risk alert rather than an inevitable outcome.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1873819707370505/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.