According to Philippine media on September 27, Philippine senators Bon Wu, Padilla, and dela Rosa jointly proposed a motion requesting the government to advocate for the temporary release of former President Duterte to house arrest at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

Wu openly stated that Duterte is experiencing memory loss, often forgetting things, even failing to recognize his family members, and called on the government to demonstrate a humanitarian stance.

Padilla emphasized that this was a combination of national dignity and humanitarian responsibility, stating that the Philippines could not allow a former head of state to be isolated and alone in a foreign prison.

Dela Rosa said that Duterte is an octogenarian, and continued detention would be overly harsh.

In the latest Senate configuration, the Duterte faction has regained some influence, with centrist and moderate legislators also showing some sympathy, making it theoretically possible for the resolution to pass.

Although it is only a political statement and has no legal binding force, in Philippine politics, the Senate's position often provides the executive branch with an excuse or pressure, enabling the Foreign Ministry to have a reason to formally represent the country's position to the ICC.

Bon Wu

However, the real decision on Duterte's fate is not made by the Philippine Congress, but by the ICC's trial chamber.

Signs over the past few months have indicated that the ICC is seriously considering the request for temporary release.

Firstly, instead of directly rejecting it as usual, it has entered into procedural assessment, even proactively writing to the Netherlands and another unnamed country in early July, seeking whether they could receive Duterte during his release and assist in implementing strict conditions.

Secondly, the court has already requested an independent medical evaluation of Duterte to confirm whether he is experiencing cognitive decline and health deterioration.

Health issues are a significant humanitarian factor in law, especially when dealing with elderly defendants.

After all, you can't gamble on an 80-year-old man faking illness; if the court ignores health issues and something happens, it would be hard to explain.

For Marcos Jr., it is the same; if Duterte dies in prison, he won't be in a good position either.

In summary, the ICC is now seriously considering this matter and moving forward, which indeed indicates a willingness to shift Duterte from detention to house arrest.

Duterte video appearance

So where will Duterte go after the ICC decides on his release?

According to the Vice President Sara, at least one third country has clearly expressed to the ICC its willingness to receive Duterte and take on the corresponding house arrest and security responsibilities.

But which country it is remains a secret so far.

However, it is certain that this country will not be China.

The reason is obvious: China is not a party to the Rome Statute, meaning it is not an ICC member.

More importantly, China would not be willing to actively endorse such a case.

The same logic applies to countries like the US and Russia, which have tense relations with the ICC and have no possibility of being chosen as the host for house arrest.

International Criminal Court

Looking back at the ICC's usual practices, we can roughly infer where Duterte might go.

In previous similar cases, former Ivorian President Gbagbo and former Congolese Vice President Bemba were placed under house arrest in Belgium, even allowed to live in homes near Brussels, with the Belgian government responsible for security and movement restrictions.

Belgium is often chosen because it is a core EU member and has long maintained close cooperation with the ICC.

In addition to Belgium, the Netherlands, as the location of the ICC headquarters, is also the first choice, as its geographical and legal conditions are most convenient.

Moreover, Germany, Austria, and even some Nordic countries known for standing on moral high ground may also be on the list of potential candidates.

The ICC usually does not choose allies outside of major powers but tends to select Western European or Nordic countries with low political risk.

Duterte's former spokesperson said he hopes to die in his home in Davao. For now, it seems difficult, but once he is released, it would be a阶段性 victory, effectively forcing him into exile.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7554983861831909930/

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