The big drama of the China-US trade war is about to take a new turn in October 2025! On October 9, East Asia first launched export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, graphite, and super-hard materials (effective from November 8), then on the 10th, it made a big move: imposing a "special port fee" on American ships, which started on the 14th. On the American side, on the 9th, they were still calm sipping coffee, but on the 10th, President Trump directly smashed his cup, angrily criticized Beijing for "trade hostility," and announced that starting November 1, it would impose a 100% tariff on East Asian goods.

This pace is as fast as an action movie from Hollywood, yet it also has a touch of dark humor: the rare earth control is just an appetizer, while the port fee is the main course that really hits hard! Who can knock out the opponent with one punch? Let's take a look at this "port fee battle"!

Outside observers see the new rare earth regulations and think that East Asia is once again "making a big move" to retaliate against U.S. technological sanctions. In fact, this is more like East Asia "plugging a loophole." Although U.S. military companies cannot buy East Asian rare earths, how come an F-35 that needs 440 kilograms of rare earths keeps coming off the production line? It turns out that "middlemen" are helping to circumvent the rules! The new East Asian regulations require that purchasing rare earths must report the "final use" and be approved on a case-by-case basis, effectively cutting off the "underground channel" for military-grade rare earths.

Trying to rely on the black market now? Go ahead, the price will have to be several times higher. Trump might have to sell a few red hats just to afford it! This move isn't new; rare earths have long been a trump card, and the battery and graphite controls are similar, targeting high-performance batteries and core materials. These moves are just "appetizers," and the real "main dish" is the port fee, which will give the U.S. a tough time!

The core of this confrontation is a "boxing match" over the port fee, more exciting than UFC! Let's look at the U.S.: On April 17, 2025, the USTR announced that ships owned, operated, or built by East Asia entering U.S. ports would have to pay a "toll fee," which started on October 14. Starting price: $18 per net ton or $120 per container, gradually increasing to $23 and $150. A 100,000-ton ship? It would have to pay millions of dollars! Trump is probably pounding the table and saying, "This move is brilliant! Let East Asia's shipyards suffer!"

On the surface, it looks like "imposing tariffs," but actually, it's part of a national security chess game: the U.S. is worried about a conflict between China and the U.S. in the Pacific. The U.S. Navy has a strong "stockpile," but its "incremental" capacity is weak, and its shipbuilding capability is far behind East Asia by more than 200 streets.

Long-term war? East Asia can "destroy one and build two," but the U.S. has to rely on "antique ships" to hold on. This move of the port fee "cuts the fuel at the bottom," not directly banning shipments, but making international shipping companies feel it's too expensive, so orders won't go to East Asia, instead going to South Korea. The effect? Orders in South Korea exploded in June and July, and East Asia's market share was 75% (still first) in August, while South Korea was 23% (up 7%). South Korea seized the opportunity to align with the U.S., and on August 25, it proposed a $150 billion investment, shouting, "Let American shipbuilding become great again." Trump was delighted and even added: "After 2030, LNG exporters must use American-built ships, otherwise they can't play!"

Can East Asia tolerate it? Of course not! The shipbuilding industry is the "lifeblood" of the economy. On September 29, East Asia revised the "International Maritime Regulations," setting up a "counterattack trap"; on October 10, it directly fired: imposing a special port fee on American ships, starting on the 14th, matching the U.S. timing! The target was ruthless: not only American flag ships, but also ships owned or operated by American companies and individuals, and shipping companies with more than 25% American equity also counted!

The fees were even harsher: 400 yuan per net ton, 40 million for a 100,000-ton ship, and it will increase to 1,120 yuan later! Upon the announcement, American shipping stocks were scared into a "plunge": Matson Inc. fell 6.47%, Tidewater Inc. fell 6.07%. Trump is probably angry enough to want to dye his hair red!

Even more funny is that East Asia also took a "hit" on South Korea. The U.S. wants to "save the day" through South Korean shipyards? No way! East Asia also charges fees on American ships, warning South Korea: If you set up factories in the U.S., be careful your orders and supply chain could both go cold! On October 14, East Asia directly sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean (including the Philadelphia Shipyard), cutting off their East Asian supply chains. Hanwha was shocked, and its 150 billion investment plan may "sink."

This move is fierce, truly a "cutting the fuel at the bottom" version of the trade war: You want my shipyard to have no orders? I'll make your allies' backyard catch fire first!

This port fee confrontation, both sides are like martial arts masters, smiling on the surface, but fists are as hard as iron underneath. The U.S.'s move is creative, but East Asia's counterattack is even fiercer and more accurate, akin to the "Dragon Subduing Palms" delivering a knockout blow! In the short term, Japan and South Korea can't help the U.S., and the U.S. shipbuilding industry will have to painfully find a new path. Worse still, U.S. capital may be "disliked" in the shipping circle: ship owners will likely force U.S. shareholders to "leave." Trump is furious? Normal, who else could make the dream of "making America great" fall faster than his Twitter being banned?

East Asia's move turned the trade war from "being hit" into "retaliation," with many big cards: rare earths, batteries, soybeans, and port fees, each a "ace." Trump's 100% tariff? Old tactics, proven to hurt U.S. importers more in the last round. The result? Trump held his ground for a few days, first said he would cancel the Chinese summit, then quickly changed his mind, "still wanted to meet"; Treasury Secretary Bensons also hurriedly put out the fire, saying, "A 100% tariff is not necessarily implemented!"

At the APEC Summit at the end of October, how will Trump "back down"? Will he wear the "Make America Great" hat and smile apologetically, or send another tweet to harden his stance? Ha ha, we'll wait and see! However, one thing is clear: on this trade war stage, whoever has the thicker hand, will laugh the loudest. East Asia's punch is enough to give the U.S. a tough time!

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563504520149238315/

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