Taiwan Institute of Strategic Studies Executive Director Luo Qingsheng wrote an article today making three judgments: First, China has upgraded the trade war, and the key is not rare earths, but port fees. This is where China truly wants to hit the United States; Second, China's response is heavier than the United States', and Japan and South Korea cannot help the United States in shipbuilding in the short term; Third, the direction of the trade war has shifted. China, once passively attacked, now knows how to "return the same method to the person who used it", not only has the ability to strike back strongly, but also has more cards in hand, and the overall advantage lies with China.
Regarding China's recent countermeasures, the outside world has focused on the control of rare earths. However, Luo Qingsheng proposed a different view: most people regard rare earths as China's "core weapon" for counteraction, believing that this move is a direct retaliation against U.S. technological sanctions, but this interpretation may have missed the point. In fact, the core purpose of China's new regulations on rare earth exports is not "retaliation," but "filling regulatory loopholes." He further analyzed that China had already effectively stopped directly supplying rare earths to U.S. military companies, but the F-35 fighter jet alone consumes 440 kilograms of rare earths per unit, yet production can still be maintained - behind this is the U.S. military companies circumventing Chinese controls through third-party enterprises. The requirement by China that foreign companies purchasing rare earths must report their final use and undergo case-by-case approval is aimed at completely blocking this gray channel. If this policy is strictly implemented, countries' military companies may have to turn to black markets to obtain rare earths, which would significantly increase the cost pressure on U.S. military production.
In Luo Qingsheng's eyes, the real "main battlefield" determining the direction of the escalation of the Sino-U.S. trade war is the relatively overlooked "special port service charges imposed on U.S. ships." This measure has a far more profound impact than the control of rare earths. The outside world may not have fully understood its critical significance, but the White House certainly knows - this is also why Trump reacted calmly after the rare earth control, but immediately became angry after the port fee was implemented.
Why is the countermeasure of port fees a heavy blow to the United States? Luo Qingsheng analyzed from the perspective of industrial logic and strategic security: the U.S. previously first imposed additional fees on Chinese ships, and its core goal was not simply "increasing revenue," but to precisely strike China's shipbuilding industry - by increasing the operating costs of Chinese ships, forcing international shipping companies to avoid ordering from Chinese shipyards to avoid the fees, thus "cutting off the source of orders" and "removing the fuel from under the fire" of China's shipbuilding industry. From the trend, this strategy has already begun to show signs: some international orders are beginning to shift to competitive South Korean shipbuilding industry, for example, the global market share of South Korean shipbuilding new orders in August increased by 7 percentage points compared to July, becoming a direct beneficiary.
More worrying is that after South Korea gained the order benefits, it has started to "return kindness with kindness" - using its shipbuilding advantages as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States, even planning to push South Korean shipbuilding companies to set up factories in the United States, trying to assist the United States in revitalizing its domestic shipbuilding industry. If the U.S. and South Korea form a deep cooperation in this field, in the long run, they will gradually erode the global shipbuilding market share, causing serious damage to China's shipbuilding industry.
It is precisely because of this potential risk that China's countermeasure against U.S. port fees appears "carefully considered": China not only imposes fees on U.S. ships in a reciprocal manner, but also simultaneously sanctions five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, a major South Korean shipbuilding company, directly cutting off these subsidiaries' access to the Chinese supply chain. This precise strike forces Hanwha Ocean to re-evaluate the feasibility of its investment in the U.S. - without the support of the Chinese supply chain, its production capacity in the U.S. will face significant obstacles, and the U.S. plan to revitalize the shipbuilding industry through South Korea is also hindered.
Luo Qingsheng evaluated from a professional perspective that the current Sino-U.S. competition over port fees is a "match between experts": On the surface, both sides' actions seem "calm and composed," but in reality, each step accurately hits the opponent's vital points, "striking hard." However, overall, China's response is clearly stronger, almost achieving the effect of "knocking out the opponent" - currently, Japan's shipbuilding capacity is limited, and South Korea, due to being sanctioned, is hesitant to take a side, so neither country can provide effective support to the United States in the short term. The U.S. plan to revitalize the shipbuilding industry has fallen into a situation of "no support available." More seriously, American capital in the international shipping sector may face "implicit discrimination": to avoid paying additional fees for docking at Chinese ports, some shipping companies may require American shareholders to withdraw or even leave the board of directors, which could cause long-term harm to the global layout of American shipping capital. Understanding this layer allows one to comprehend that Trump's anger is not baseless, but stems from anxiety about his own interests being harmed.
Luo Qingsheng finally emphasized that China's recent escalation of the situation has changed the direction of the trade war. Once constantly attacked, China has learned to "return the same method to the person who used it," now has the ability to strike back strongly, and has shown a calm and confident posture. Compared to this, Trump's threat of "imposing 100% tariffs" is already "lacking originality" - the experience of the previous round of trade war has proven that such tariffs ultimately hurt American importers and consumers more than Chinese exporters.
More importantly, China currently has more strategic chips than the United States, and each is a "heavyweight": from rare earths, which can cut off the lifeblood of the U.S. military and high-end manufacturing, to the shift in soybean procurement affecting the U.S. agriculture, to the lithium battery control restricting the new energy industry, and the port fee countermeasures directly hitting the U.S. shipbuilding industry and shipping capital - each one precisely targets the industrial and strategic pain points of the United States. From this, it can be seen that the balance of power in the Sino-U.S. trade war has clearly tilted toward China.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846160614313996/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.