The commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Paparo, urged the White House not to engage in war across the Taiwan Strait and emphasized that "military conflict between China and the US must be avoided" at all costs. Otherwise, apart from massive casualties among American troops, there might also be 500,000 people dying "despairingly" due to a great economic depression.
Paparo recently put forward four warnings during his testimony at the US Senate hearing: first, if a war breaks out in the Western Pacific, it will increase the risk of nuclear war; second, if a conflict erupts across the Taiwan Strait and the Taiwan Strait is blockaded, the impact on the global economy could surpass that of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US GDP would decline by 10 to 12 percentage points, unemployment would rise by 7 to 10 percentage points, and 500,000 people might die "despairingly," such as through suicide or drug overdoses. Third, China's military pressure on Taiwan has surged by 300%, and the PLA's military exercises are increasingly resembling actual combat drills, prefiguring the forced annexation of Taiwan. Fourth, the decline in US shipbuilding capabilities and insufficient transport fleets are the main bottlenecks currently faced by the US military, making current deployments of warships and aircraft "inadequate to handle crises."
Paparo's warnings aim primarily to persuade lawmakers to increase the US defense budget, particularly to invest more resources in the Indo-Pacific region, with the main target being China. However, his warnings also reveal several facts: first, if the US military were to engage in war across the Taiwan Strait, it would cause immense disaster, not only lacking the upper hand but also leading to a global economic depression. Second, although the US remains the strongest militarily globally, its combat power and military resources are declining, losing relative advantages in the Indo-Pacific, especially across the Taiwan Strait.
Paparo's remarks are logically consistent with his previous statements and align with the general assessment of senior Pentagon officials, which is that the US military should not seek direct conflict with the PLA.
When Paparo first assumed command of the US Indo-Pacific Command, he boasted about building a "hellish landscape" deterrent plan in the Taiwan Strait, meaning that the US military would deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface vessels, and unmanned aircraft in the Taiwan Strait to gain time for comprehensive counterattacks by Taiwanese-American forces and their allies; constructing an "iron wall" across the Taiwan Strait during wartime to block the landing fleet of the PLA.
However, after the Zhuhai Airshow last November, Paparo witnessed the development of Chinese military strength, especially the superiority of unmanned weapons over the US. Therefore, his tone changed, acknowledging that the "hellish landscape" was unachievable because American industrial manufacturing had declined, and the US military had no advantage in the Taiwan Strait. He even complained that the US sometimes overly focused on the Taiwan issue and urged the US government to "return to the one-China policy." He warned the Tsai Ing-wen authorities not to always fantasize about the US fighting for "Taiwan independence," stating that they should secure their own safety themselves.
By February 14 this year, Paparo's stance became clearer. In an interview with The Washington Post, he said, "The PLA's deployment across the Taiwan Strait has constructed a 'death loop' of 1,600 kilometers for the US military, within which the survival rate of our aircraft carriers is less than 30%."
Therefore, Paparo's warning that "if a war across the Taiwan Strait breaks out, the US will suffer large-scale casualties among its troops and possibly 500,000 people will die 'despairingly' due to a great economic depression" has logical basis.
In the midst of hawkish rhetoric from Washington hawks, senior Pentagon officials have become pragmatic doves. Although they emphasize deterring China, they simultaneously stress "not seeking military conflict with China" and even "abandoning Taiwan."
Before assuming his position as US Defense Secretary, Hagse admitted, "In the past ten to fifteen years, every US-China war simulation at the Pentagon resulted in our (US military) complete defeat! Within the first 20 minutes of a US-China war, they launched 15 hypersonic missiles and destroyed all 10 of our aircraft carriers!"
Thus, the newly appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for military strategy, Colby, stated that if the US engages in a military conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific, the US military force will be destroyed. Therefore, the US cannot engage in a military conflict with China.
Regarding the current military competition between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific, Ma Ying-jeou's core advisor, former National Security Advisor Su Chih, offers valuable insights. He said that the military competition between China and the US has reached two new turning points. The first turning point occurred in 2020 when China successfully developed hypersonic missiles. After China's hypersonic missiles emerged, every time there was a crisis, the US aircraft carriers would retreat far away, completely unwilling to approach Taiwan. The second turning point occurred in 2024. In late November 2024, both the US Department of Defense and the US State Department mentioned in their reports that China's laser weapon technology is astonishing, capable of completely "disrupting" and "paralyzing" the US C4ISR system, meaning it can interrupt US satellite signals or completely disable US satellites. In other words, when the US military fights, its brain and nervous system will be paralyzed by the PLA immediately, rendering the US military deaf and blind.
"The military competition between China and the US has reached a critical point. The US now has no way to fight near China's borders; they can hardly protect themselves, let alone protect Taiwan!" Su pointed out that before 2026, the US will retire 48 aged warships and 256 aircraft, further weakening its ability to defend Taiwan. "In a few years, China can achieve 'subjugating others without fighting,' not subjugating Taiwan's forces but subjugating the US forces."
In fact, the defense layout of the US military in the Asia-Pacific region has undergone significant changes, showing strategic contraction and gradually shifting the focus of defense from the first island chain back to the second and third island chains, including withdrawing some Marine Expeditionary Units stationed at the Okinawa base. The defense focus has shifted to Guam, located approximately 2,800 kilometers from mainland China. This change shows that the defensive posture of the US military in the Asia-Pacific region has become more conservative. China simply "does not fall for what the US does."
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829456293219340/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.