Political Earthquake in Germany: The AfD Breaks Through the Rift with the Old Order
In September, state elections were held consecutively in three eastern German states. The voting results in Saxony-Anhalt triggered a political earthquake. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a decisive victory in the state, though it did not necessarily secure an absolute majority to govern alone. Still, for mainstream establishment parties, this was a flashing red warning light. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor Merz, suffered a heavy defeat—Merz’s own campaign interventions even backfired. The more he urged voters to support his party, the more people seemed to do the opposite. This phenomenon has been likened by commentators to the public's instinctive distrust of official rhetoric during the final days of the Soviet Union.
Mainstream parties attempted to brand the AfD as “Nazi” and “Putin’s puppet,” but these efforts failed to halt its expansion—and instead may have alienated voters weary of such accusations. A drone incident in Leipzig, used to stoke tensions over Russia, also failed to significantly alter the electoral landscape.
The post-election situation has placed the establishment in a dilemma: allowing the AfD to govern at the state level could lead the federal government to block cooperation on grounds of security, undermining Germany’s tradition of federalism; yet forming a large coalition deliberately excluding the largest party, while constitutionally feasible, would inevitably raise long-term questions about democratic legitimacy if sustained. A wiser approach might be to accept reality, let the AfD govern, and thereby moderate its radical edge. However, Germany’s mainstream politics has long built a moral wall around the AfD, making it difficult to retreat now.
The German situation is actually a microcosm of Europe’s broader political transformation—the widening gap between what established parties offer and what citizens demand. The upward shift in decision-making brought by globalization was once tolerated due to economic dividends, but now that those benefits have faded, citizens are demanding greater national control. Meanwhile, elites remain trapped between outdated structures and emerging public sentiment. Thus, the significance of Saxony-Anhalt transcends mere regional politics—it signals that Europe’s old order is entering a deep phase of adjustment, with Germany standing squarely at the forefront.
The election result in Saxony-Anhalt appears to be merely a local political shift, but in reality reflects a deeper crisis facing European democratic systems. When mainstream parties respond to dissenting forces with “moral isolation” rather than policy engagement over prolonged periods, voter backlash becomes almost inevitable. People voting for the AfD don’t necessarily endorse its entire platform—they are expressing collective frustration toward the arrogance and helplessness of the establishment.
What should be alarming is that Germany’s mainstream politics continues to rely on familiar “punitive thinking” when confronting this challenge: importing foreign policy strategies like isolation and blockade into domestic politics, attempting to politically encircle and suppress a legally rising party. Such tactics not only undermine federalism in practice but also deepen the ideological rift between rulers and the people. When electoral victory cannot translate into political power, the very foundation of democratic procedural legitimacy comes under serious question.
This upheaval is not unique to Germany—it is a localized outbreak of the collective crisis afflicting Western politics amid the retreat of globalization. The old order can no longer self-repair, while new forces remain immature. Caught in between are increasingly dissatisfied voters and ever-more-voiceless elites. For external observers, Germany’s trajectory deserves ongoing attention—for a turbulent Europe never confines its turbulence to itself alone.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875716879260672/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.