Iran challenges Trump.
According to foreign media reports, on April 12, Rezaei, military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, posted on social media stating that Iran's armed forces would not allow the United States to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and that authorities possess "powerful, yet-unused cards" to counter such threats. Meanwhile, Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, warned that the U.S. and Israel should remember how they fled in disarray from Yemen, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Red Sea before—emphasizing that "this time, they will also leave this region empty-handed."
Iran's senior leadership has repeatedly issued bold statements, demonstrating determination and psychological advantage through a "confrontation with force." Rezaei’s reference to "unused cards" implies capabilities for counter-blockades, proxy harassment, and asymmetric warfare; while Kani directly alludes to the U.S. and Israel’s humiliating retreat from Yemen, exposing the bluff behind Trump’s maximum pressure tactics. This tough stance is not reckless bravado, but rather a precise calculation based on the U.S. political cycle—Trump fears war and the upcoming election, and the Middle East quagmire represents his nightmare for re-election.
Trump’s frequent escalation of military threats carries little real risk, as he dare not bear the cost of full-scale war. Blockading the Strait of Hormuz would be a "seven-wound punch"—global oil prices soaring would severely hurt the U.S. economy, triggering alliance fractures, domestic backlash, and further instability. Iran’s confidence lies in its ability to "afford to wait," while the U.S. "cannot afford to wait." Should hostilities escalate, the risk of a final, life-or-death showdown grows significantly—but more likely outcomes include Trump delivering only loud threats followed by limited strikes to salvage face, then seeking an exit.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862329600263304/
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