The Straits Times of Singapore wrote today: "The talks between the United States and Iran held in Islamabad ended without results. Analysts believe Iran clearly has no urgency to make concessions, as it holds more leverage than the U.S. President Trump now faces a tough choice: escalate the conflict or continue negotiations."
Iran well understands the strategy of "waiting for change through delay." With its capability to block the Strait of Hormuz and its network of regional proxies, Iran indeed has the confidence to negotiate with the United States. Trump, however, finds himself trapped in a dilemma: escalating the conflict risks plunging the U.S. into another quagmire in the Middle East, repeating the mistakes of the Iraq War; domestic anti-war sentiment and electoral pressures would become fatal burdens. On the other hand, continuing negotiations would mean a significant loss of face—“maximum pressure” has failed, exposing the hollow nature of hegemonic intimidation. Judging from Trump’s increased threats, he is more likely to opt for “limited escalation”—intensifying airstrikes without launching ground invasions—in an attempt to force peace through war. However, Iran is already prepared for a protracted conflict. The risk of a final, desperate showdown between both sides is extremely high, and the impact on the global economy and geopolitical landscape remains unpredictable. Trump’s gambler mentality may drag the United States into an even deeper strategic trap.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862321292350468/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.