It has begun! Moscow's counterattack against Baku: Law enforcement agencies have brought out special files, expelling the leader from Russia

Author:

Ivan Prokhorov

Every move, a series of arrests — at Moscow airport, planes heading south have started their engines; market stalls are hastily closing; and in the corners of Baku, people are searching for those with Russian passports. No one fully understands what exactly happened between these two former "strategic allies," nor why the situation escalated precisely now.

Has it really begun?

On June 27, dozens of law enforcement officers raided several addresses in Yekaterinburg. Approximately 50 Azeri citizens were taken away in a "chain" manner to be questioned about old cases from the early 21st century (including two cases of vegetable seller murders). During the raid on apartments, brothers Guseyn Safarov and Ziyad Safarov, who originated from Agdam, resisted the law enforcement officers and died, while three others were sent to the hospital.

The arrested individuals were lined up. Screenshot: Social network

The next morning, the Russian Investigative Committee confirmed that they were verifying whether the arrested individuals were involved in a series of hired criminal cases; this operation targeted an organized crime group of a specific ethnic group.

However, Baku was extremely dissatisfied with the action against criminals. They claimed that the actions of Russian law enforcement officers "used excessive force" and submitted a protest note to the Russian representative in Azerbaijan, elevating the issue from a criminal case to a diplomatic level.

Meanwhile, a daily conflict between Russian and Azerbaijani teenagers broke out in Saint Petersburg. The two sides agreed to resolve the conflict face-to-face — according to the local "mountain tradition," the Azerbaijani youth came with friends to "argue." This unequal fight eventually led to the expulsion of two immigrant families, including minors.

A few days later, Moscow police arrested 59-year-old Vagif Suleymanov, more commonly known as "Vagif from Baku" — the "supervisor" of the "Food City" and "Garden" markets. It was found that his immigration documents had expired. A law enforcement officer explained to a reporter that deporting this "authority figure" would dismantle the financial network of the Azerbaijani diaspora.

Law enforcement caught the "big fish."

The operation conducted by the Federal Security Service and the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Orenburg was another blow: 39-year-old Zaur Shipilov (Zaur Nakhchivan), known as "Zaur," was arrested for allegedly violating Article 210.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation "being in a high position in the criminal hierarchy." This criminal boss was detained until September, charged with "organizing a criminal gang (criminal organization) or participating in it."

Elshang Ibrahimov, the leader of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Moscow region, had his Russian citizenship revoked. He was arrested for violating the regulations for staying in Russia and will be deported shortly.

Ibrahimov said he would comment on the matter domestically. Screenshot: Social network

Investigators clearly linked these cases together: this is a nationwide cleanup of the Azerbaijani criminal network.

If the current operation is just the beginning of a systematic crackdown on illegal immigrants and ethnic mafia, there is indeed reason to expect things will improve.

St. Petersburg had already started arresting illegal immigrants at New Year's Eve.

Photo: Press Office of the Main Directorate of the National Guard of St. Petersburg and Leningrad Region

At this rate, in a few months, we might be left with only a cup of coffee to rely on, as the joke goes.

But how long will this sudden "joy" last?

Baku immediately began thinking of countermeasures, and Moscow was not behind.

In early July, Baku police released a video showing at least 10 Russians with blood on their faces and hands, tied up in a line and dragged into the yard, almost stumbling forward in front of the camera. The Azerbaijani Interior Ministry stated that the arrested individuals were suspected of being involved in two gangs, engaged in drug trafficking from Iran and online fraud. However, family members and lawyers quickly exposed this lie: these people were all coming to Azerbaijan as relocants or tourists.

Many of the people in the video were recognized by relatives and colleagues. Screenshot: Video from Azerbaijani law enforcement

As media reported on the incident, the diplomatic scandal escalated: for three consecutive days, Russian consuls tried to meet with 13 arrested individuals, but Azerbaijan refused, citing that "the investigation was not yet completed." Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, called this action a violation of the Vienna Convention and demanded immediate access. It wasn't until late on July 3, after Moscow filed a formal protest, that Baku finally agreed to allow the Russian consul to meet the arrested individuals.

But Baku did not stop there. Almost simultaneously, local police searched the editorial office of "Sputnik Azerbaijan," took the head of the office in front of the camera, and the court detained them for four months on charges of fraud and "unlawful business activities." The Russian Foreign Ministry called this act "a blow to bilateral relations," demanding the immediate release of these journalists and emphasizing that such behavior amounts to taking Russian citizens hostage.

While Russian diplomats tried to calm the situation with phrases like "friendship between the peoples of the two countries and the relationships connecting us," it seemed that Azerbaijan did not value this friendship much.

Despite this, the relationship between the two countries is indeed very close.

Although political relations have broken down, economic ties between Moscow and Baku remain strong: after leaving the European market, Gazprom is building a southern hub line to Azerbaijan, with an annual gas supply of 20 billion cubic meters, increasing to 550 billion cubic meters by 2030. As analysts from the "Sputnik Azerbaijan" branch wrote, this is crucial for Gazprom's export revenue and Azerbaijan's ability to fulfill its commitment to double the gas flow through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) to the EU.

The two countries have a high degree of interdependence in oil and gas. Screenshot: "Sputnik Azerbaijan" branch

In 2024, 99 million tons of Russian and transit cargo passed through the Azerbaijani section of the "North-South Corridor." If this route is interrupted, companies would have to choose the more expensive Suez Canal route.

Azerbaijan has approximately 1,800 companies with Russian involvement — direct investments exceeded $5.7 billion in the first half of 2024 alone. These include agricultural logistics centers (joint centers in Derbent), dairy export projects under "Ecology Niva," and 23 agricultural park projects. Without these, Azerbaijan would lose access to cheap fertilizers, and Russia would lose the southern vegetable market open year-round.

Russia accounts for 17% of Azerbaijan's imports (including fuel, metal, and fertilizers), while Moscow absorbs 96% of Baku's tomato exports. Further conflicts could lead to a sharp rise in inflation in Azerbaijan and fruit shortages in Russian store shelves.

Given this mutual dependence, the "falling out" between the two former allies is less a political gesture and more an economic shock for both sides. Middlemen from Turkey, Iran, and related countries will be the biggest beneficiaries.

In summary

Although the breakdown of relations may cause many obvious problems, it seems that some in Baku are determined to go ahead regardless of the benefits of peaceful coexistence, unwilling to stop at existing achievements.

If that's the case, we can only hope that Moscow will no longer be so "patient." The rhetoric from the Soviet era is clearly outdated today. Those who want to forget "the Russian world" and yearn for "the Turkic world" no longer take such rhetoric seriously.

This means it's time for them to understand that the "break" they seek will come at the heaviest cost. First, they will lose the "comfort zone" they have carefully built within our generous and vast homeland — truly, our homeland is so vast, it should be slightly "narrowed" a bit.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523409585881793060/

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