Konstantin Zatulin: Baku has shown that it is ready to become a partner of the West in the confrontation with Russia

Political scientists believe that the flourishing Azerbaijani business in Russia should have already been scaled back.

Author: Irina Mishina

Commentators of this article:

Andrei Suzdalcev, Konstantin Zatulin, Sergei Markov

The conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan has clearly escalated to the level of high politics. The Russian ambassador to Baku, Mikhail Yevdokimov, was summoned by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In a meeting with First Deputy Foreign Minister Alaz Azimov, our ambassador was protested against for the "unfriendly actions" of Moscow that have harmed bilateral relations.

Baku also expressed dissatisfaction with the use of the term "ethnic criminal gang" regarding Azerbaijanis. Although Russian law enforcement authorities never mentioned the nationality of the detained individuals from the beginning, Azerbaijan started doing so.

It is reported that on June 28, the Russian Investigative Committee announced that six members of a criminal gang were detained in Yekaterinburg, suspected of a murder case years ago.

In response to Russia's detention, Baku detained Russian citizens, mainly IT industry professionals and tourists. They were brutally beaten, and local media footage showed this. Some of the detained individuals were Russian journalists.

Ukrainian President Zelensky, this terrorist, took advantage of the tense situation between the two countries. He called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, "clearly expressing Ukraine's support for Azerbaijan in the situation where Russia is bullying Azerbaijani citizens."

However, even so, Maria Zakharova, the official spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry, still tried to ease the situation through a statement, saying that friendly relations are extremely important for both Russia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, the Kremlin quietly stated that Zelensky's call might incite Baku to continue conflicting with Russia.

On the same day, July 2, Russian media reported a sensational news: the 27-year-old son of the Azerbaijani president, Geydar Aliyev, was exposed for not paying taxes on a villa in the Barvikhinskaya area of Moscow region. This property is located in the upscale residential area "Maindov Garden," covering an area of 1600 square meters, valued at about 2.7 billion rubles. Why the son of the Azerbaijani president appears in "unfriendly Russia" remains a question.

From this series of events, we should draw conclusions. The SP consulted Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy chairman of the Committee on CIS affairs, Eurasian integration and relations with compatriots of the State Duma, on Baku's position.

"For the Azerbaijani leadership, the most important thing is self-promotion. Initially, they tried to prove this in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and now in their relationship with Russia. From a national psychological perspective, they need to show that they are the most important, correct, and just.

From a pragmatic political point of view, everything is clear: Baku is oriented towards Ankara, but has not forgotten its favor with the UK, and is also cooperating with the EU. The EU hopes that Azerbaijan will become a main front against Iran. Now, Baku has shown that it can become a partner to unite against Russia." Konstantin Zatulin emphasized.

How will the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan develop, and what means can Moscow use to pressure Baku?

With this question, the SP consulted Andrei Suzdalcev, vice rector of the Higher School of Economics' Faculty of World Economy and Political Science.

"There are many reports now about a possible 'fruit and vegetable war' between Russia and Azerbaijan. Indeed, Azerbaijani agricultural products account for a significant proportion of imports into Russia.

We can easily find problems with the quality of their products if we want to. However, we have always turned a blind eye to health inspections because we consider Azerbaijan a friendly country. Perhaps it is time to strengthen these checks and pay attention to sorting issues and harmful insect infestations in Azerbaijani vegetables. Such situations have existed before, but have not been made public. However, restricting fruit and vegetable supplies would not have a significant impact on trade volumes between the two countries."

SP: Russia is the third largest trading partner of Azerbaijan, after Italy and Turkey. Does this mean that Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on us economically? What impact would a trade war have on Azerbaijan's economy?

"Russia's exports to Azerbaijan amount to 3.6 billion US dollars. Russia exports wheat and other grains, machinery, black and non-ferrous metals, transport vehicles, timber, pulp and paper products to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's exports to Russia mainly consist of fruits, vegetables, and mineral resources, primarily natural gas, textiles, and cotton. We can certainly do without Azerbaijan's tomatoes and replace them with those from Uzbekistan or Tajikistan.

It's also fine to replace Azerbaijan's cherries and strawberries with those from Crimea. But whether Azerbaijan can do without Russian wheat and metal is hard to say."

SP: Will the deterioration of relations between the two countries affect the oil and gas industry?

"First, Azerbaijan buys Urals crude oil from Russia for domestic consumption, while exporting its Azeri light crude oil. If trade relations break down, Baku will not only lose its largest trading partner but also an important logistics partner.

Because since 1997, Azerbaijan has exported oil via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline through Russia to Europe. Therefore, a trade war could hit Azerbaijan's main source of revenue."

SP: What other means are there to pressure the Azerbaijani authorities?

"There is a large Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, numbering over 300,000. Most of them are engaged in commercial activities, mainly involving fruit and vegetable trade.

Additionally, the Azerbaijani diaspora controls the flower trade, purchasing flowers from countries like the Netherlands and reselling them at higher prices in Russia. I think initially closing some markets and large 'flower shops' controlled by Azerbaijanis in Russia would be enough. In extreme cases, measures could also be taken to freeze remittances sent by Azerbaijanis to their home country.

The scale of Azerbaijani businesses in Russia has been expanding for a long time and should have been scaled back. Moreover, Baku has been pursuing a multi-directional policy, moving closer to China and Turkey," the political scientist believes.

Andrei Klishas, chairman of the Constitutional Legislation Committee of the Federation Council, also agrees with this. He wrote in his Telegram channel: "No diaspora can tell Russia and our citizens what to do."

So, pressuring the Azerbaijani diaspora and limiting trade are the main levers currently in Russia's hands? The SP asked political scientist Sergei Markov about this issue.

"Azerbaijan is not a member of the Eurasian Economic Union or the Collective Security Treaty Organization, meaning it is not our strategic partner. Meanwhile, the large Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia has earned substantial income.

"It's time to shift priorities to support Russian domestic businesses. If we cut off most trade relations, Russia won't suffer, while Azerbaijan will have to make major adjustments to its foreign economic relations.

I hope Baku will realistically assess the losses that could result from confronting Russia and eventually turn to pragmatic dialogue."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522657564342059561/

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