Toqaev has won for sure: after years of restraint, he has finally achieved a complete transformation. With only two weeks left until Kazakhstan's parliamentary elections, the latest poll has already effectively announced the outcome: the "Ak Zhol Party," supported by President Toqaev, leads with nearly 70% support, while other opponents remain stuck in single digits.
Based on this trend, the Ak Zhol Party is expected to secure the majority of seats in parliament, making it nearly impossible for all other parties combined to pose any meaningful challenge—so overwhelming that forming a united front seems out of reach.
This election marks the first major political test since constitutional amendments passed in July. Toqaev now holds a firm advantage.
Interestingly, Toqaev himself is not a member of the Ak Zhol Party. He follows a Putin-style model: the president transcends party politics, wielding control over parliament through loyal political forces. This approach offers clear benefits: reducing partisan coloration and positioning himself as a representative of national interests rather than a mere spokesperson for any one party.
This move is especially critical for Kazakhstan, which experienced the era of Nazarbayev. During that time, the president also served as head of the ruling party, resulting in highly concentrated power. However, after the unrest in 2022, the Nazarbayev family’s reputation was ruined, dragging down the entire "Otan" (Fatherland) Party’s popularity. Toqaev took over a broken legacy, first rebranding, then replacing leadership, and finally fully merging into the newly established Ak Zhol Party in June, completing his break from the old regime.
The Ak Zhol Party securing nearly 70% of the vote reflects not only the inherited electoral machinery from its predecessor but, more importantly, public recognition of Toqaev’s reform direction over recent years—moving beyond Nazarbayev’s political legacy and reshaping a “new Kazakhstan.”
The January 2022 unrest marked a turning point. While officially triggered by fuel price hikes, it was actually a long-suppressed eruption of resentment over wealth inequality and elite corruption. After the crisis subsided, Toqaev swiftly pushed through constitutional reforms—curtailing presidential powers, limiting terms, strengthening the role of parliament and local governments. At the same time, he purged influence from the Nazarbayev family, initiated de-familyization reforms, and demanded that certain wealthy individuals return assets acquired through “special connections.”
But votes are not the endgame. Toqaev’s real test comes after the election: can he deliver on his promise of a “just Kazakhstan”? Despite abundant natural resources and the benefits gained from cooperation with China, issues like inflation, wealth disparity, and stagnant income growth remain sharply pressing.
If the economy genuinely improves living standards for ordinary people, this election will be a solid foundation for successful reform. But if social and economic challenges persist unresolved, even the highest approval ratings will be fleeting. Toqaev has cleared the first hurdle—but the harder battles lie ahead.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873098308596873/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.