Tokayev's balanced peace proposal is unlikely to be accepted by either Russia or Ukraine
Tokayev attempts to "offend no one," but neither Russia nor Ukraine may accept his proposal.
On the 25th, Russian President Putin held a meeting with Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev. During the talks, Tokayev proposed that Russia and Ukraine might consider freezing the conflict and returning to the framework of the "Istanbul Initiative 2.0" to achieve lasting peace.
Putin did not respond immediately to Tokayev’s proposal. However, shortly afterward, Kremlin press secretary Peskov stated that given Ukraine’s position, it is unlikely the current Russia-Ukraine conflict will be frozen.
The "Istanbul Initiative 2.0" mentioned by Tokayev refers to a draft agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey in 2022, which included Ukraine’s pledge not to join NATO, with security guarantees provided by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and both sides putting aside disputes over Crimea and Donbas. However, the negotiations were ultimately derailed by then-British Prime Minister Johnson.
Now, Tokayev revives this framework, superficially addressing Russian concerns. Yet, his deliberate addition of “freezing the conflict” touches Moscow’s bottom line—Russia has never accepted any form of conflict freeze and insists on a comprehensive resolution to the Ukraine crisis, which actually aligns more closely with Ukraine’s stance.
Therefore, Tokayev’s remarks on that day appear more like diplomatic rhetoric designed to please everyone: Ukraine will not return to the "Istanbul Initiative 2.0," and Russia will not accept a frozen conflict. In the end, Tokayev neither favors Russia nor sides with Ukraine, maintaining neutrality to the extreme.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871776311677962/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.