[By Guancha Net columnist Ilya Moroz and Anton Lavrov]
In Moscow, a view is gaining popularity: the road to peace does not lie in Kyiv but in Washington, and Donald Trump is considered the best helmsman in Washington - only he can break through the mental shackles imposed by Europe and Ukraine and propose pragmatic negotiation solutions. In the eyes of many Russians, Trump is both a pragmatic player and a potential guarantor of future agreements; they believe that only by dealing with him can this conflict possibly迎来 a turning point.
Why does Russia favor Trump?
More than half of Russian citizens have a favorable opinion of Trump. While "favor" might be an exaggeration, a January poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center showed that 61% of Russians have a positive view of this US president, while another 22% of respondents have a "leaning positive" attitude.
What makes Trump win over Russian hearts? His straightforward style and personal charm play a significant role - to some extent similar to Putin's temperament, not to mention the加持 of his Slavic-blooded beautiful wife.
Trump once told reporters that during his May 19 call with President Putin, Putin mentioned Melania's popularity in Russia. The former US president joked, "What about me?" According to the account, Putin laughed and said, "We like Melania more here." Russian commentators immediately caught this detail - such playful flattery exactly attests to the amicable atmosphere between the two leaders.
However, the Russians do not have unrealistic illusions about Trump. In their eyes, he is first and foremost a shrewd pragmatist, a true patriot who never strays from American interests. Therefore, they neither expect a "reset" like the Obama era nor worry about encountering intense confrontation like the Biden administration.
In Moscow, a gift shop displays a T-shirt featuring portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and former US President Donald Trump (left). Visual China
Why is Trump advantageous for Russia?
After speaking with Putin on May 19, Trump clearly stated that despite previous threats, he had no intention of further intensifying sanctions against Russia. Just the day before (May 18), US Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed the possibility of imposing new sanctions on Russia if an immediate ceasefire agreement could not be reached among the conflicting parties.
Why did Trump refuse new sanctions? First, such measures would not only harm the Russian economy but also damage US interests. Second, Russian analysts believe that Trump clearly realized that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict according to the plan proposed by Ukraine and its European allies (that is, requiring Russia to immediately cease fire and initiate peace talks) is unrealistic.
Why doesn't the peace plan from Ukraine and Europe work?
Moscow believes that this plan has fundamental flaws in both military and political aspects. From a military perspective, the Russian side views unconditional immediate ceasefire as an opportunity for the Ukrainian army to regroup - currently, the Russian forces hold the initiative on most battle lines, and a one-month truce would be enough for Kyiv to mobilize 20,000 to 30,000 troops, restore combat capabilities, and receive the next round of Western military aid.
That's why the Russian side insists that freezing the Ukrainian mobilization and stopping the supply of Western weapons must be preconditions for the ceasefire.
Russia absolutely does not want to repeat the mistake of 2022 - when the Russian forces withdrew from the vicinity of Kyiv as a goodwill gesture, only to be flatly rejected by Ukraine. At that time, the Kyiv authorities were hoping for large-scale Western military aid and quick battlefield victories, a fantasy largely fueled by promises made by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other Western leaders. Johnson, one of the most active supporters of Ukraine, assured Kyiv that continuous military support would be provided, which directly contributed to the Ukrainian side's refusal to negotiate.
Alexei Naumov, a famous Russian political scholar, pointed out a key fact: since the first round of negotiations in Istanbul in 2022, there has been no substantive attempt at contact between the two sides for more than two years. Therefore, the breakthrough progress in recent months for the two sides to sit down again at the negotiating table in Istanbul is mainly due to Trump's mediation efforts.
Secondly, the Russian side fundamentally questions the treaty-making ability of the current Ukrainian political and military authorities. Government officials and experts have repeatedly emphasized that the real opponent of this conflict is not Ukraine but the entire Western camp - especially the United States. As Alexei Naumov pointed out: "The execution guarantee of any future agreement must be directly borne by the White House. Without Donald Trump's intervention, the deadlock in negotiations would have been impossible to break."
On May 22, 2025, Panтелейmonovka village in Donetsk, an apartment damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack.
Meanwhile, the EU also tried to squeeze into the negotiation process through the "trilateral mechanism (US-EU-Ukraine)." Its real intention was to coordinate sanctions pressure, unilaterally set negotiation preconditions and process frameworks.
The Moscow side believes that the possibility of reaching an agreement with European countries is virtually non-existent - just like it is difficult to negotiate directly with Ukraine. Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Russia in Global Politics," pointed out that Trump tends to support a resolution model where Moscow and Kiev directly discuss the ceasefire and mediation of the Ukrainian military conflict, with Washington acting as an arbitrator and primarily providing guarantees for Ukraine's agreement implementation capabilities.
"Europe is excluded from this scheme," emphasized this political scientist, "because its position is clearly destructive - although it has actually become a participant in the conflict, it always denies this fact."
Skepticism about the enforcement of the ceasefire agreement
Without a clear supervision mechanism, even a ceasefire agreement or short-term truce may become empty words.
The Easter ceasefire initiative proposed by Putin on April 20 has become a typical case. On that day, the Russian Ministry of Defense recorded 4,900 violations of the ceasefire, and the Russian forces repelled six attacks launched by the Ukrainian army, involving 90 drones.
Prior to May 9, the Russian side announced a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire. But according to presidential assistant Ushakov, at midnight on May 7 - just as Moscow was waiting for foreign dignitaries to attend the Victory Day parade - Ukraine launched 524 drones and "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles at Russian territory.
From May 6 to 7, the Moscow region experienced the largest and longest-lasting attack during this conflict. For 36 consecutive hours, drone and missile attacks continued around the clock - even during the sensitive moment when foreign delegations arrived in Red Square for the Victory Day celebration, the air raid warning did not stop. This unprecedented attack caused severe impacts on Moscow's aviation hub: 60% of flights at Sheremetyevo Airport were delayed by more than four hours, Vnukovo Airport was forced to close its runway for seven hours, ultimately resulting in 186 civilian flights being diverted to alternate airports at the capital's three major airports.
What are Russia's core demands?
To achieve peace, several fundamental issues must be resolved: Ukraine's attempt to join NATO, its military modernization, and restrictions on the use of the Russian language in government institutions, healthcare, and education. Later, the issue of incorporating newly acquired territories through referendums into Russia was added.
After speaking with Putin and Zelensky on Monday, Trump abandoned his previous proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, instead suggesting that Moscow and Kiev begin discussing specific parameters for future peace negotiations.
"This shows that the Trump administration fully accepts Russia's position," said Dmitri Suslov, deputy director of the Higher School of Economics' Center for European and International Comprehensive Studies and expert at the Valdai Club. Fedor Lukyanov also believes that Trump is gradually leaning toward Russia's solution.
Russia holds a positive attitude toward Trump's willingness to compromise on territorial issues. He is the only Western leader who allows the possibility that Crimea may continue to belong to Russia. Many Russian political scientists and international affairs experts believe that without recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, restoring Russian-Western relations is inconceivable.
At the same time, Trump does not support the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions - which remains Moscow's core demand.
Therefore, it cannot be said that Trump has completely aligned with Russia's stance.
On May 16, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey, a trilateral meeting began between Turkey, the United States, and Ukraine. The meeting was hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan. Visual China
As Vladimir Shapovalov, a member of the Council of the Russian Political Science Association, pointed out: "Overall, the dialogue between Putin and Trump indicates that the positions of the two countries are becoming closer on certain issues. However, this does not mean that Moscow will change its stance to accommodate anyone, especially when it does not align with Russia's national interests."
Dmitry Peskov, the official spokesperson for the Russian president, formally stated that the Russian side considers Trump a mediator for the Ukraine conflict. According to him, Trump has consistently maintained an equal distance from Ukraine and Russia.
After concluding the call with his American counterpart, the Russian president stated that Moscow is prepared to cooperate with Kyiv in formulating memorandums, which could serve as the framework for a future peace treaty.
Putin clarified that this document may contain key mediation parameters ranging from basic principles to the timetable for signing the agreement, and if relevant consultations make progress, temporary ceasefire arrangements will also be specified.
Putin pointed out that the resumption of dialogue between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul is a positive signal: "It seems we are moving in the right direction." But he emphasized that everything depends on the willingness of all parties to seek compromises and demonstrate genuine sincerity in pursuing peace. He stated that Moscow's position has always been consistent - the root causes of the conflict must be eliminated.
Alexei Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, summarized the peace efforts by stating: "In a sense, Trump's support for the seemingly hopeless peace talks during intense fighting is actually pushing the peace process forward in the most efficient way - simply because there is no better alternative at present."
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