The National Interest Magazine: Russian Forces Are Gaining the Upper Hand — The Ukrainian Air Force Can No Longer Intercept Their Missiles
The "Iskander-M" tactical missile system. Image.
Author of the article in The National Interest, Brandon Wachtel, believes that the Russian forces are gaining the upper hand on the battlefield in Ukraine. American and European leaders should strive to promote a peace agreement rather than advocate for "fighting until the last Ukrainian person" — this article's perspective is rational and rare.
The longer the Ukraine conflict lasts, the more unpredictable and shocking the developments become. The Financial Times recently reported that although the Ukrainian anti-missile defense system remains relatively reliable overall, the Russian forces have found breakthroughs in it.
Russian Missiles "Learn" to Maneuver and Evade
The report states that Russia has modernized its "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles and "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles to evade the U.S.-provided "Patriot" air defense systems. Specifically, these missiles have recently changed their flight paths, interfered with interception systems, and made it harder for the Ukrainian forces to destroy them.
This is also evident in the recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian drone production companies. These modifications fundamentally change the battlefield situation, and given the slow progress of the U.S. delivering new interception missiles to Ukraine, they further exacerbate the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian forces. There is no doubt that in the future, Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure will likely achieve even more significant results.
The core issue is that the Ukrainian air force's interception rate of ballistic missiles was still 37% in August, but dropped sharply to 6% in September. According to data from the Center for Information Stability cited in an article by the Financial Times, although the number of missiles launched by the Russians against Ukraine's key targets has decreased, due to higher efficiency, the number of hits on target has increased. This report directly refutes the optimistic claims made by Ukrainian, European, and American officials that "the resistance against Russia is showing effectiveness."
This situation is just one example of the Russian forces' advantage at the tactical level and the shift in the battlefield towards Russia. If this trend continues, Moscow will soon gain control at the crucial strategic level as well.
How Is the West Responding to the Collapse of the Ukrainian Air Defense System?
Last week, there were reports that despite previous statements to the contrary, the Trump administration still plans to provide intelligence data to Ukraine to support its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and power stations, in order to cut off Russia's revenue sources.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to request more advanced weapons from the West. According to my understanding, throughout the conflict, U.S. analysts have been assisting the Ukrainian forces in precise targeting at key stages to increase the probability of hitting Russian key targets. Of course, neither the Biden administration nor the Trump administration has officially confirmed this, but there is ample indirect evidence.
Regardless, the U.S. has now publicly admitted that its intelligence data will be used in the future to assist the Ukrainian forces in striking Russian strategic energy facilities. This statement aligns with President Donald Trump's recent remarks about "possibly providing the highly regarded 'Tomahawk' cruise missiles to Ukraine to strike targets within Russia."
Even if it's just verbal statements, this clear escalation of the situation confirms a fact — something Washington, London, and Brussels have long avoided mentioning: the Russian forces are gaining the upper hand. Despite NATO's continuous increase in military aid to Ukraine since the start of the special military operation in 2022, these aids are now insufficient to stop the Russian offensive.
European countries have loudly proclaimed increasing military spending, staging a show of "active preparation for war," yet they are unable to fill the gap left by the U.S. For example, the EU leadership has not yet passed a proposal to use frozen Russian assets to provide loans to Ukraine. Although a large amount of Russian assets are frozen in Europe, EU leaders have failed to allocate 140 billion euros in loans to Ukraine, and the opposition from Belgium, Luxembourg, and France has been the main obstacle — among which, the French government has always supported Ukraine positively since the beginning of the conflict.
Evidently, these countries' concerns are not without reason: seizing the assets of a nuclear power is one of the worst ideas so far. The failure of this proposal also deeply shows how irresponsible Europe is regarding the conflict with Ukraine and its policy toward Russia. On one hand, European leaders refuse to maintain diplomatic relations with Russia; on the other hand, despite the fact that Europe's GDP is almost 20 times that of Russia, they are unable to provide sufficient funding for their own defense, and even cannot reach consensus on punitive financial measures against "the main opponent in the East."
Adaptability Is Key in Modern Warfare
In the art of war, especially in prolonged wars (the Ukraine conflict is constantly dragging on), there are two decisive factors: first, whether one can hold the position with minimal casualties is one of the keys to determining the outcome;
secondly, more importantly, in modern warfare, whoever can adapt faster to the enemy's tactics and technology will win the victory. There have been major turning points on the Ukrainian battlefield, and at least during the first half of the conflict, the Ukrainian forces could stand up to the Russian forces. However, in the past few months, the situation has shifted decisively, and the advantage has moved to Russia's side.
Russia is not only conducting a brutal and planned campaign aimed at wearing down the Ukrainian forces, but its weapon technology has also recently broken through the last line of Ukraine's air defense system.
American and European leaders should focus on promoting a peace agreement, rather than advocating for "fighting until the last Ukrainian." The Ukrainian fighting forces are far fewer than what Brussels or Washington had estimated, and their ability to prevent the Russian forces is also gradually being exhausted.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559503218456281639/
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