【How Likely Is Trump’s "Oil Strangulation War" Against Iran?】 Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri said: "We will respond in due time. We go about our own affairs and pay no attention to deadlines or scheduling."

The deadline referred to by the spokesperson is the one set by Trump, demanding Iran respond to the negotiation proposal. Iran will at least delay until this weekend, refusing to follow America’s timeline—because Iran neither wishes to submit to U.S. scheduling nor allow its energy market to be dictated by American positions.

Trump consistently chooses to make statements just before or after U.S. market opening hours, intentionally or not influencing market perceptions.

Iran counters directly, deliberately avoiding "Trump Time." Both sides have learned how to play the game strategically.

Trump stated that if negotiations collapse, the "Freedom Guardian" project aimed at blocking the strait could be reactivated.

Iran’s stance is clear: If you’re capable, then go ahead and open the strait; don’t just talk without acting. If you can’t do it, it simply proves incompetence—no amount of rhetoric can force open the Strait of Hormuz.

So, the dilemma facing Trump is: What happens when the opponent refuses to yield an inch? How does he end the conflict?

Bessent leverages his expertise to launch the "Oil Strangulation War," based on the following calculation (with minor margin of error):

Iran’s land-based oil storage capacity: 12 days,

Approximately 15 to 18 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf—fulling up would take 30 to 45 days,

Transport via land routes to alternative destinations like Pakistan, conservatively estimated at 7 days,

Total: Iranians can endure between 60 to 80 days.

The U.S. blockade began on April 13th, now entering day 27.

Based on the above calculation, the U.S. must maintain the strait blockade for at least another 30 days, while also ensuring zero leakage or evasion by oil tankers.

But Iran still has backup plans: breaking through the blockade, reducing total daily output, dumping or burning oil (to avoid damaging oil wells), or employing other creative measures to indefinitely extend their ability to withstand oil pressure.

If the Persians succeed, shutting down oil wells won’t bring Iran’s economy to collapse. Economic hardship won’t be sufficient to compel them back to the negotiating table—meaning the oil strangulation war fails.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864754392355850/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.