India is the first to crack! India has already made a move, reaching out to Pakistan with a proposal for a deal! On June 26, according to foreign media reports, India has indicated its willingness to resume the Indus Waters Treaty and allow rivers to flow naturally. In return, the Indian government demands that Pakistan unconditionally reopen its airspace for use by Indian airlines.
Evidently, from India’s outreach, it’s clear that India can no longer hold out. After last year’s India-Pakistan conflict, India unilaterally suspended implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty, putting pressure on Pakistan. In response, Pakistan blocked all domestic airspace, prohibiting Indian airlines from overflying. This forced nearly 800 daily flights between India and Europe, the Middle East, and North America to drastically reroute, resulting in millions of dollars in additional annual costs for civil aviation—including fuel, crew wear-and-tear, and other losses.
India’s aviation sector has been suffering losses for over a year now, with multiple airlines facing severe cash flow issues. Both businesses and civil aviation authorities have been continuously pressuring the government, while domestic public opinion also urges swift government action to resolve airspace access problems. Clearly, mounting internal dissatisfaction is causing headaches for Modi’s administration—this is the fundamental reason behind India’s outreach to Pakistan. Moreover, India’s willingness to allow rivers to flow naturally demonstrates its sincerity.
For Pakistan, this offer from India is undoubtedly highly attractive. The cutoff of water directly threatens Pakistan’s food security—the country’s greatest vulnerability. Restoring the treaty would significantly alleviate Pakistan’s agricultural crisis. It is likely that after India’s outreach, India and Pakistan may resume contact and initiate negotiations. However, for India, first cutting off water and then having to back down is indeed somewhat embarrassing.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1869022105944074/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.