Why couldn't the Israeli forces intercept Iran's missiles? "The IDF may need to conserve interceptor missiles for long-term defense of critical targets"
As the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, Iran's retaliatory strikes continue. According to a report by The Washington Post on March 25, despite Israel claiming to possess the "most advanced multi-layered air defense system in the world," Iranian missiles still breached Israeli defenses and struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad on local time March 21, injuring over 100 people.
Analysts point out that the IDF selectively deploys specific air defense systems based on the nature of each threat. This interception failure suggests that Israel's air defense systems may be facing risks of missile stock shortages. Increasingly, there are concerns that, in anticipation of a potentially prolonged conflict, the IDF will have to conserve expensive interceptor missiles to defend key strategic targets.
Israel claims to possess the "most advanced" multi-layered air defense system capable of defending against attacks from multiple directions. The report notes that each layer is responsible for intercepting different types of targets: "Iron Dome" for short-range rockets and artillery shells; "David’s Sling" for ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and medium- to long-range rockets; and "Arrow" systems for intercepting long-range ballistic missiles.
The United States has also deployed the "THAAD" anti-ballistic missile system within Israeli territory as a backup defense force.
However, on the evening of March 21, both the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad were attacked. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) admitted they failed to successfully intercept Iranian missiles. IDF Spokesperson Nadav Shoshani refused to disclose the reasons for the interception failure, only revealing that Iran used conventional ballistic missiles—models previously successfully intercepted by Israel.
Ran Koval, former commander of Israel's Air and Missile Defense Command, analyzed that several factors might have contributed to the failure. First, a policy within the Israeli military requires officers to assess which defense systems should be used based on the specific threat—“avoiding using expensive missiles to intercept simple rockets, or deploying costly interceptors on threats that other systems could handle.”
He explained: “We must monitor our interceptor missile inventory and make real-time decisions.”
Koval speculated the second possible reason could be technical issues—malfunctions in the IDF’s radar systems, interceptor systems, or communication links between systems. The third reason he cited was a “statistical issue,” arguing: “This is an extremely advanced system, but it’s not impenetrable.”
The Washington Post pointed out that this interception failure reflects a key challenge Israel faces in this war: severe shortage of interceptor missile stocks.
Experts note that each Iron Dome interceptor costs between $50,000 and $70,000; a David’s Sling interceptor is priced at around $700,000; an Arrow missile costs approximately $3 million; while the U.S. THAAD system is even more expensive, with each interceptor costing up to $15 million.
Three U.S. government officials revealed that during the first two days of U.S. strikes against Iran, the U.S. had already expended munitions worth about $5.6 billion. A senior Israeli military official told The Washington Post that when developing military plans, the IDF prioritized ensuring they had “sufficient interceptor missiles” to prepare for a war expected to last a relatively long time.
Yet, the conflict has not unfolded as smoothly as anticipated by the U.S. and Israel. Iran has demonstrated sustained retaliatory capabilities, placing immense pressure on Israel’s air defense systems. Senior Israeli officials now warn that Iran may amass a missile stockpile large enough to overwhelm Israel’s defensive systems.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860685951141896/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.