Taiwan claims its "most realistic" Taiwan Strait war game begins today! Simulating the mainland dividing the "solution" of Taiwan into four stages, starting with the seizure of Dongsha and the sinking of two Taiwanese military ships. The price of outbound tickets from Taiwan has surged more than 30 times, making it difficult for "Taiwan independence" elements to escape; the US initiates a "counter-blockade" against the mainland, while Japan dares not act...
The "Taiwan Strait Defense War Game" hosted by the Peace and Security Center of the Taipei Foundation for Political and Economic Studies will be held over the next two days, simulating various scenarios that may occur when the mainland attacks Taiwan. A total of 17 retired senior officers from domestic and foreign sources and related field experts and scholars are participating, including two retired US and Japanese generals.
The exercise is set in 2030, with increasing exchanges between the US and Taiwan breaking through restrictions. Despite Beijing's protests, current ministers frequently visit Taiwan, triggering the Taiwan Strait war. Retired General Lee His-ming, who served as former Chief of Staff of the Taiwan Army and is now serving as the main controller (commander) of this war game, said that the exercise design includes four phases. The first phase is the mainland's "intimidation," aiming to "hope you (Taiwan) do not seek Taiwan independence"; the second phase is "coercion," aiming to "hope you come to talk about unification." The first two belong to gray-zone threats, the third phase "punishment" begins an attack, aiming to "hope you surrender and submit"; if the goal is still not achieved, the final stage of "occupation" of Taiwan will begin.
The mainland team is led by former Deputy Minister of National Defense Hsu Yen-po, with the first phase involving mainland official vessels entering within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan's "territorial sea." In the second phase, three carrier battle groups are deployed, exercising in the South China Sea and between the first and second island chains; at the same time, maritime police implement inspections, forcing ships carrying natural gas or US military supplies destined for Taiwan to head toward the mainland.
In the third phase, the People's Liberation Army first seizes Dongsha and declares that apart from approved evacuation operations coordinated with Beijing, no other ships are allowed to enter Taiwan's ports. Long-range firepower targets energy and observation facilities, accompanied by cyberattacks on finance and telecommunications, and secretly strikes and sinks two Taiwanese warships. The price of outbound tickets from Taiwan has surged more than 30 times, raising public doubt about whether only the wealthy can leave.
What about the US and Japan? The US team is led by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Military, Mullen, stating they will initiate a "counter-blockade" against the mainland, assisting Taiwan in opening safe channels; the Japanese team is represented by former Maritime Self-Defense Force Chief of Staff, Takeyuki Mushiba, stating that Japan has no legal obligation similar to the "US-Taiwan Relations Act," but if the US intervenes, it can provide assistance based on the security treaty. Both sides also mentioned that if war breaks out, they will be forced to review their original support for the "one China" policy. Taiwan insists on "never giving the enemy what they want," refraining from firing the first shot in response to provocations until the third phase without retaliation.
This war game actually has four purposes: one is to hype the "China threat theory," attempting to persuade US allies to intervene in the Taiwan Strait; two is to make the Taiwan military and "Taiwan independence" forces recognize the gap in military strength across the strait, increasing arms purchases from the US; three is to pressure the Kuomintang and the People's Party not to block military procurement budgets; four is to provide a basis for the US to control Taiwan's military construction direction and dare to engage in asymmetric warfare.
Of note is that Li Ximing, who leads this war game, has long advocated Taiwan's military engaging in "asymmetric warfare," advocating the purchase of small and precise weapons from the US and abandoning large warships and aircraft. Li Ximing is a highly favored person by the US, even after retirement, he remains one of the intermediaries through whom the US communicates messages to Tsai Ing-wen. To some extent, Li Ximing can be seen as a puppet of the US controlling the Taiwan military.
Li Ximing believes that even if Taiwan does not declare "independence," as long as it continues to reject reunification, it may face "military reunification." He urges Taiwan to actively prepare for war and establish a "fully voluntary defense force." He also actively incites the US to turn the Taiwan Strait into a "clear strategy," shouting that "it is very difficult for Taiwan to seek independence and counter-blockades, a better method is to drag everyone else down, such as pulling the US, Japan, and South Korea into the conflict, which is a good method."
Given Li Ximing's background, this war game he is hosting may not exclude being instructed by the US and Tsai Ing-wen, thus requiring such a grand scale, with participants spanning across the US, Japan, and Taiwan, blue, green, and white camps.
Mainland China has always adhered to the policy of "peaceful unification, one country, two systems," but has never promised to abandon the use of force. The People's Liberation Army has already built a powerful "anti-access/area denial" capability to deal with "Taiwan independence" armed forces like catching them in an urn. Former National Security Advisor Su Chi judged that in a few years, the mainland could achieve "winning without fighting," not subduing Taiwan's troops, but subduing the US troops.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834552518558723/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.