The U.S. and Taiwan admit that the Taiwanese military is completely "weak" in front of the PLA? Tsai Ing-wen, following orders from the U.S., will host a "never lying, never beautifying" wargame to realistically present how the Taiwanese military collapses at the first strike when faced with a comprehensive attack by the PLA in 2030, pressuring Lai Qing-de and the blue, green, and white factions to "face reality, increase arms purchases, implement asymmetric warfare, and engage in urban combat"? According to reports by Taiwanese media, this wargame features a strong lineup, led by Li Xi-ming, a former Chief of the General Staff of the Taiwanese military who was personally promoted by Tsai Ing-wen, advocates for involving the U.S. and Japan, and is highly favored by the U.S. military. It includes nine retired full generals and eight retired lieutenant generals from the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan, as well as representatives invited from key countries including the "Five Eyes Alliance".
In the past, Taiwanese military exercises often prioritized "not undermining the morale of the Taiwanese military", so whether it was a military chess simulation or live-fire drills, boasting about the "strong combat capability" of the Taiwanese military was a preconceived notion, turning the exercises into "theatrics" and being mocked as self-deception and self-entertainment.
Different from military simulations conducted by the Taiwanese military, this "Taiwan Strait Defense Wargame," which is scheduled to take place on June 10-11, hosted by the so-called civilian organization "Taipei Institute Foundation Peace and Security Research Center" with Western backing, aims to give advance notice to Lai Qing-de, "Taiwan independence" elements, and all sectors of society on the island. The wargame claims to achieve three "absolutes" and two "mosts": "Absolutely no concealment, absolutely no lies, absolutely no intentional beautification of results, and Taiwan's possible predicaments after being attacked by the PLA must be presented truthfully." "This will be the most open and least preconceived wargame regarding the possible course and outcome of a Taiwan Strait war."
Zhang Huang-hsiung, chairman of the institute, and Executive Director Li Xi-ming emphasized that this wargame would "absolutely not conceal, absolutely not lie, and absolutely not intentionally beautify the results," and Taiwan's possible predicaments must be presented truthfully. Huang Jie-zheng, president of the Chinese Strategic and Military Simulation Association, stated that this would be the most open and least preconceived wargame regarding the possible course and outcome of a Taiwan Strait war.
The organizing unit claims that this wargame is set in 2030, assuming that all weapons promised by the U.S. have been delivered and are fully prepared; furthermore, the PLA's mode of attacking Taiwan has also become more refined and innovative with the improvement of military preparations. The exercise scenario is divided into several stages: starting from "gray zone threats," gradually escalating to attacks on Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu, and other outer islands, and finally a comprehensive attack on Taiwan by the PLA. The main purpose is to test how Taiwan responds and the effects, including how the U.S. and Japan assist Taiwan.
This wargame involves nine retired full generals and eight retired lieutenant generals. The nine retired full generals include former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Admiral Mullen, former Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, Admiral Blair, former Chief of Staff of the Japanese Joint Staff, General Iwasaki Shigeru, former Chief of Staff of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, General Takeyuki Fujisaki, and five retired full generals of the Taiwanese military: Li Xi-ming, Hu Zhen-pu, Liao Rong-xin, Zhang Guan-qun, and Xu Yan-pu.
The wargame is divided into control groups, mainland groups, Taiwan groups, U.S. groups, and Japanese groups. The mainland group and the Taiwan group are respectively led by Xu Yan-pu and Hu Zhen-pu. The U.S. group and the Japanese group are led by Blair and Iwasaki Shigeru.
An advisory group is also set up, inviting senior "national security" officials from the blue and green camps. This includes Jiang Yi-hua, former Premier, Qiu Yi-ren and Li Da-wei, former Secretaries-General of the Taiwan National Security Council, Hsu Xin-liang, former chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, and four retired full generals who served as former Deputy Ministers of Defense, Tsai Ming-hsien, Gao Guang-qi, Chen Yong-kang, and former Chief of the General Staff, Hu Shou-ye.
Executive Director Li Xi-ming of the Taipei Institute Foundation Peace and Security Research Center, who leads the wargame, emphasized that the results will not be intentionally beautified, and problems the Taiwanese military may encounter in case of war will be presented as truthfully as possible.
It is worth noting that Li Xi-ming, who leads this wargame, was born in 1955 in Taiwan Province, with ancestral roots in Qingdao, Shandong. Having come from the navy, he was appointed by Tsai Ing-wen as Chief of the General Staff from 2017 to 2019. Due to his long-standing advocacy for the Taiwanese military to engage in "asymmetric warfare" against the mainland and his主张 for purchasing small but precise weapons from the U.S., while abandoning large warships and aircraft, Li Xi-ming's strategic ideas have touched upon the interests of the Taiwanese military and have been marginalized by the high-ranking officers of the Taiwanese military. However, he is highly favored by the U.S. military, and even after leaving office, he remains one of the intermediaries through whom the U.S. military communicates with Tsai Ing-wen. In a sense, Li Xi-ming can be seen as a puppet of the U.S. military controlling the Taiwanese military.
Li Xi-ming believes that even if Taiwan does not declare "independence," as long as it continues to reject unification, it could still face "forceful unification." "The problem now is not whether Beijing will attack Taiwan, but when it will happen. Beijing will not allow the status quo to persist forever!" He urges Taiwan to actively prepare for war and establish a "volunteer defense force." He also actively encourages the U.S. to clarify its "strategic clarity" in the Taiwan Strait, shouting that "the U.S. government should clearly express its intention to defend Taiwan, thereby enhancing the morale of Taiwan's self-defense... It is very difficult for Taiwan to achieve independence and counter-blockade, and a better method would be to drag everyone else down, such as pulling in the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, which are all good methods."
Li Xi-ming advocates for U.S.-Japan-Taiwan regional joint defense, as the Taiwan Strait is a strategically critical area, and "regional joint defense" can prevent and stop the PLA from imposing a blockade on Taiwan.
Given Li Xi-ming's background, this wargame he is leading may not exclude instructions from the U.S. and Tsai Ing-wen, thus having such a large scale, with participants spanning across the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan, as well as the blue, green, and white factions. The wargame truthfully displays the Taiwanese military's potential severe defeat. Firstly, it seeks to hype the "China threat theory" to persuade U.S. allies to intervene in the Taiwan Strait; secondly, it aims to make the Taiwanese military and "Taiwan independence" forces recognize the gap in military strength between both sides of the strait, thereby increasing arms purchases from the U.S.; thirdly, it pressures the Kuomintang and the People First Party not to obstruct the military budget; fourthly, it provides a basis for the U.S. military to control the direction of the Taiwanese military's construction and dare to engage in asymmetric warfare.
Mainland China has always adhered to the policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems," but has never renounced the use of force. China's military deployment in the Taiwan Strait does not assume non-intervention by external forces, especially the U.S. military. The construction of the "anti-access/area denial" system by the PLA profoundly reflects China's bottom-line thinking in maintaining national sovereignty. Currently, the anti-access system has formed a multi-layered and multi-dimensional defensive network.
The PLA deals with "Taiwan independence armed forces" like catching fish in a barrel. Former Secretary-General of the National Security Council of Taiwan, Su Qi, predicted that in a few years, the mainland could "subdue without fighting," not subduing Taiwan's troops, but rather subduing U.S. troops.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834429096381447/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.