Asahi Hayashima's dream of becoming Japan's first female prime minister seems to be in doubt.

On the 10th, the Japanese "Mainichi Shimbun" reported a big news, stating that the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party has announced its dissolution.

This is the case: In March this year, Komeito proposed a plan to limit the political donations of the Liberal Democratic Party, claiming to "eliminate the malpractices of money politics," allowing only the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party and the prefectural and municipal organizations to accept donations.

Komeito made this proposal as a condition for the joint governance with the Liberal Democratic Party. Now that the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party has been elected, recently Komeito has raised this demand again, requiring the Liberal Democratic Party to "completely accept" it.

If Komeito really leaves the ruling coalition, there will be some interesting developments.

The Liberal Democratic Party's attitude is simple: they refuse. One of the reasons the Liberal Democratic Party can govern for a long time is that it obtained a large amount of political donations by colluding with the business circles, industry associations, and local forces. Therefore, Komeito's proposal is essentially asking the Liberal Democratic Party to cut off its own legs.

However, it is very strange that even though the Liberal Democratic Party's black gold political scandal has led to its consecutive losses in the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors elections, Asahi Hayashima still lied when responding to Komeito's request, claiming that limiting political donations "would reduce the transparency of the parties."

Therefore, since the Liberal Democratic Party is stubborn, Komeito is also ready to give up.

Komeito leader Tetsuo Katagiri publicly stated that if the Liberal Democratic Party does not give a satisfactory response, he will refuse to support Asahi Hayashima in the prime minister nomination election. The rupture of the two-party joint governance is inevitable.

After the meeting between the two parties, Katagiri will announce his final decision.

The prime minister nomination election was originally scheduled for October 15th, but due to the deadlock in the negotiations between Komeito and the Liberal Democratic Party, the election may be postponed to the 20th or 21st. Currently, the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito are preparing a meeting between the leaders of the two parties. Katagiri's intention is "to make a decision after listening to the Liberal Democratic Party's response."

A recent report claims that the talks between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito have broken down, and after talking with Asahi Hayashima, Katagiri "expressed the intention of Komeito to withdraw from the coalition government."

The breakdown of the ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito could become an unprecedented spectacle in the history of Japanese politics:

Currently, both the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito have not reached a majority in the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, which puts them in a "legless duck" situation. Moreover, since the result of the prime minister election usually depends on the House of Representatives, Asahi Hayashima would not be able to become Japan's first female prime minister just with the votes of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. She must secure support from a slightly larger opposition party in the House of Representatives.

Japan's first female prime minister? It seems to be questionable.

But since the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito have already gone their separate ways, if Komeito turns to support the opposition, then as long as the opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Nippon Ishin no Kai unite slightly, they have a chance to pull the Liberal Democratic Party out of the seat of power. At that time, Asahi Hayashima would basically not be able to pass the first round of the prime minister nomination election.

And now these opposition parties are planning exactly that. According to Japanese media, the Constitutional Democratic Party has been communicating with other opposition parties recently, discussing the issue of cooperation, trying to nominate the leader of the Nippon Ishin no Kai, Yūichirō Tamaki, as the prime minister candidate of the opposition alliance.

Although Tamaki has denied the rumors, several opposition parties such as the Restoration Party have revealed their intentions to move forward.

Last time, Asahi Takashi lost the ruling power of the two parties.

It is worth mentioning that the last time the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost power was during the administration of Asahi Takashi; and since the assassination of Shinzo Abe, Asahi Takashi has basically become the behind-the-scenes "kingmaker" and arbitrator of the Liberal Democratic Party. But now, he is facing the situation of the two-party alliance losing power, or even the collapse of the cooperation - this is indeed a satire.

In short, the time left for Asahi Hayashima is limited. Whether she can become Japan's first female prime minister depends on whether the Liberal Democratic Party can still gain the support of allies and other parties.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559488006537740854/

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