By Sanxuan

Japan's new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader, Takahashi Sanae, is in big trouble. According to the latest reports from Japanese media, the Komeito Party has decided to dissolve its ruling coalition with the LDP. This means that Takahashi Sanae may not be able to become the Prime Minister in the upcoming House of Representatives' prime ministerial designation election.

LDP Leader Takahashi Sanae

The Collapse of the Ruling Coalition

According to Japan's electoral rules, the Prime Minister is usually the leader of the majority party. For a long time, the majority in the House of Representatives was formed by the LDP and Komeito's ruling coalition, so the LDP leader was implicitly considered as the Prime Minister. In this LDP leadership election, Takahashi Sanae defeated Koizumi Shintarō and emerged victorious. However, whether she can become the Prime Minister still depends on whether Komeito supports her.

Over the past few days, Takahashi Sanae has tried several times to communicate with Komeito Party leader Saito Tetsuo to sign a joint ruling agreement. With this agreement, she could feel secure enough to participate in the prime ministerial designation election. To achieve this, Takahashi Sanae has made concessions on historical recognition and foreign immigration policies, which can be seen as a compromise of "not knowing the cost of living until you have to manage it." However, the differences between the two parties are not limited to these two issues. The Komeito Party, along with other opposition parties, believes that Takahashi Sanae went too far after winning the election.

Komeito Party Leader Saito Tetsuo

For example, Takahashi Sanae appointed Masayoshi Sonoda as the vice president of the LDP, brought in many members of the "Sonoda faction," and even promoted politicians involved in the "black money case." Such blatant deals have left everyone in shock. The Komeito Party has clearly stated that unless the LDP shows a convincing attitude on the issue of "politics and money," they will not support Takahashi Sanae.

The Aggressive Opposition Parties

Now, the situation has been confirmed, and the Komeito Party has indeed withdrawn from the ruling coalition. Takahashi Sanae and her LDP face an unprecedented governing crisis. In October 2024, during the House of Representatives election, the LDP-Komeito coalition only secured 220 seats, failing to exceed the 233-seat majority. During the administration of former Prime Minister Ishibashi Shigeru, Japan has been in a state of "distorted Diet," where bills proposed by the LDP faced significant resistance in the House of Representatives.

Now, with 24 seats, the Komeito Party has decided to withdraw, leaving the LDP with 196 seats, further away from the majority. Other opposition parties are likely to take action. In fact, before Ishibashi Shigeru resigned, some opposition party members had urged him not to act impulsively but to stay in office to prevent Takahashi Sanae from becoming Prime Minister. Unfortunately, Ishibashi's resignation was an internal struggle within the LDP, and the opposition party members could not influence the outcome.

Takahashi Sanae's rise is backed by Sonoda Masayoshi

After that, Takahashi Sanae was elected as the LDP leader, and all the political parties were on high alert. Now, the opportunity to stop her from becoming Prime Minister has appeared, and the opposition parties will not miss it. Recently, some opposition party members have proposed putting forward a unified candidate to challenge Takahashi Sanae for the Prime Minister position. However, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has only 148 seats, and whether the various parties can unite remains a big question mark.

Takahashi Sanae's Troubles

In short, the current Japanese political scene is one of chaos and power struggles. It is possible that Takahashi Sanae may not get enough votes in the upcoming prime ministerial designation election, leading to a vacant Prime Minister position. According to Japan's electoral system, if no Prime Minister can be selected, the two houses of parliament will form a conference to negotiate, and ultimately, it will return to a vote in the House of Representatives. There has never been a situation in Japan's constitutional history where the Prime Minister position remained unoccupied for a long time.

The Japanese Prime Ministers are getting worse each term

As for Takahashi Sanae, who has been criticized as a "Sonoda puppet," she either needs to make more concessions on domestic and foreign policies and personnel appointments to persuade Komeito to change their mind or form a new ruling coalition with other opposition parties. Otherwise, she will face more challenges in becoming the Prime Minister. As bystanders, we just need to patiently watch the show, as this intense struggle in the Japanese political arena is likely to continue for a long time.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559493648279241279/

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