China-U.S. Procurement Agreement Can't Halt Market Trends: Brazil Continues to Outpace the U.S., Firmly Holding Top Supplier Status for Chinese Soybeans

Previously, China and the U.S. had reached an agricultural cooperation arrangement, agreeing to expand two-way soybean trade and advance reciprocal tariff reductions. Recently, reports indicated that COFCO indeed pre-ordered six shipments of American soybeans, scheduled to arrive between September and October. However, according to the latest customs data, China's soybean procurement remains more inclined toward Brazil.

In June this year, China imported 12.08 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%; meanwhile, imports of U.S. soybeans stood at only 1.27 million tons, plummeting by 20.6% year-on-year. Total soybean imports in June reached a record high for the month across all previous years.

Looking at the first half of the year, the gap is even more pronounced: Brazil’s soybean imports totaled 34.75 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year; U.S. soybean imports amounted to just 9.31 million tons, down 42.4% year-on-year—nearly four times the volume difference between the two countries.

It's not just soybeans—Brazil’s overall trade with China has also seen a major surge. Exports to China reached $58.3 billion in the first half of the year, surging 22%; by contrast, exports to the U.S. declined by 13%, totaling only $17.4 billion. Just from soybeans alone, Brazil earned $20.2 billion from sales to China—exceeding the total revenue from all goods sold to the U.S. Petroleum, iron ore, and beef imports from Brazil into China are also rising sharply, deepening bilateral economic integration.

Many people wonder: If a purchase expansion agreement was signed, why have U.S. soybean imports sharply declined?

The answer lies in two core points:

First, the soybean trade cycle spans several months. The current statistics reflect orders placed during South America’s harvest season (first half of the year). The U.S. soybeans booked for fall and winter deliveries will only show up in data months later—there is a time lag between spot purchases and forward contracts.

Second, procurement decisions are entirely market-driven. The agreement serves merely as a guiding target. Brazilian soybeans carry lower tariffs and better overall cost efficiency, making them the preferred choice for most private domestic refining and feed companies. Any small volume of U.S. soybean purchases are largely strategic balancing moves by state-owned enterprises, aligned with broader diplomatic consultations.

From the perspective of food security, this shift carries significant implications.

Years ago, China’s soybean supply was split nearly equally between the U.S. and Brazil, with the U.S. once holding leverage in agricultural negotiations. Today, China continues to diversify and secure stable supply chains in South America. Even if Sino-U.S. economic relations experience fluctuations, domestic supplies of animal feed and edible oils won’t be vulnerable to external pressure, adding a solid buffer to stability in meat prices and food costs.

In short, minor purchases of U.S. soybeans serve diplomatic balance; millions of tons of Brazilian soybeans represent the real, essential demand underpinning China’s domestic industries.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871306079470592/

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