【Gao Shi believes that provoking China's core interests is more beneficial than harmful, the key lies in whether Japan's "resilience" is sustainable】The South Korean JoongAng Daily published a commentary on January 8th, stating that facing China's "rare earth retaliation," Japan has no means of counterattack, and the Gao family business is "in a desperate situation," facing a risk of losing 2.6 trillion yen. The commentary said that China has taken a high-profile approach, using rare earths, known as the "lifeline of high-tech industries," to continuously increase pressure on Japan, and the policy options of the Gao administration are also "continuously narrowing." The current situation in Northeast Asia is somewhat strange; the elite groups and media of Japan's neighboring countries do not seem to have much confidence in the Gao administration and its foreign and economic policies, but the Japanese people appear to be "calm," not feeling that it is a crisis, but rather viewing it as an opportunity for Japan to "achieve self-reliance."
The commentary pointed out that this is the second rare earth export dispute between China and Japan. China first used rare earth countermeasures in September 2010, when the Diaoyu Islands dispute escalated, and China implemented a de facto restriction on rare earth exports to Japan, causing severe damage to Japan. Although Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earths has decreased from 90% during the first dispute to about 60% now, "it remains at a high level." The commentary analyzed that the Gao administration has few countermeasures, but considering the domestic political situation in Japan, she finds it difficult to accept China's request to withdraw her "wrong statements," while China is gradually escalating the pressure. The commentary pointed out that "facing China's comprehensive pressure," some analysts speculate that Japan may restrict the export of core semiconductor materials - photoresist (photosensitive materials) to China.
Professor Hiroshi Shiratori from the Department of Sociology at Hosei University believes that apart from the "dialogue card" of calling for resolution through diplomatic channels, the Gao administration currently "seems to have no immediate measures to take," and the possibility of changing position in the short term is low. Instead, it may "take advantage of China's pressure" to accelerate the process of strengthening defense forces. However, he also believes that in the medium to long term, the impact of China's rare earth export control measures will be "unavoidable."
Evidently, Japan still believes that taking an aggressive stance on the Taiwan issue presents more opportunities than risks. Gao can not only consolidate the support rate of right-wing forces but also achieve the "normalization" of Japan's Self-Defense Forces, which is a win-win situation. Of course, unpredictable situations may arise: since it involves China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, China will continue to retaliate against Japan, and the intensity may be even greater, potentially leading to a new Cold War model between China and Japan, including military confrontation, fully testing the sustainability of Japan's "pressure resistance."
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853752601066700/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.