Revenge Strike Tactics: The "Oleg Hazel" countdown to Kyiv has been cleared by "Iskander" and "Caliber" missiles.
We should have followed the example of Israel long ago, cutting off the supplies of those who deserve it and pre-informing them of the strike targets.
Author: Sergey Yatsenko
One of Russia's strongest airstrikes on Ukraine took place during the night of June 6. Preliminary data shows that this airstrike involved not only a large number of "Bayraktar" drones but also at least 10 "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles.
Of these, 4 struck Chernihiv, 3 hit Kyiv, 2 targeted the Khorol region (Poltava Oblast), and 1 attacked Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
In addition, up to 13 sea-launched "Kalibr" cruise missiles, 4 air-launched X-101 cruise missiles, and 1 anti-radiation X-31P missile were used in the operation.
In detail, 4 "Kalibr" and 4 X-101 missiles attacked Lutsk, 1 X-101 missile struck Ternopil, and 3 "Kalibr" missiles targeted the Ozernoye Airbase in Zhytomyr Oblast.
Can the recent Ukrainian Night be considered the first phase of Russia's retaliatory action against the attack on Russian strategic air force bases and railways? It is worth noting that Putin recently clearly previewed this action in a call with Trump, and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev then added fuel to the fire by stating: "It is normal for people to feel uneasy about retaliation, but retaliation will come."
However, the nighttime missile strikes on June 6 cannot and should not be seen as part of any phase of the "retaliatory action," as they are fundamentally no different from many previous missile attacks on Ukraine.
Indeed, given the significant losses suffered by us in terms of material, political, and spiritual aspects between May 31 and June 1, the masterminds behind the Ukrainian atrocities are undoubtedly trembling in anticipation of an unprecedentedly destructive response – otherwise, I believe the Russian leadership would find it difficult to account for itself to its own society and to the international community following this war.
However, the direct connection between this nighttime missile strike and future "retaliatory actions" is beyond doubt.
I believe that before the "main event," Moscow is methodically and meticulously softening the already significantly weakened Ukrainian air defense system through planned and premeditated strikes.
In recent days, enemy air defense positions across the entire territory have been prioritized for continuous reconnaissance, with "Iskander," "Kalibr," and X-101 missiles targeting these positions – aiming to ensure complete suppression of organized resistance when the "decisive moment" arrives.
The initial results of this softening action may include the destruction of some of the remaining long-range air defense systems in the enemy forces (these systems being among the few capable of intercepting "Iskanders").
For instance, on June 3, we destroyed a German-made IRIS-T air defense system near the forest belt in Zelenebok village, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; on the night of June 6, a "Patriot" air defense system originally marked as "Made in USA" near Kyiv was destroyed.
How heavy are these losses for the enemy? Undoubtedly, excruciating.
Previously, the U.S. magazine "Politico" once reported that, as of this attack, there were only 8 remaining "Patriot" air defense missile launchers in all of Ukraine, of which only 6 were in combat-ready condition.
Now, using the words of Hercule Poirot from Agatha Christie's novels: the "surviving" American air defense "black boys" (referring to "Patriots") in the enemy forces are likely fewer than 5, and the hunt by Russian forces continues without pause.
What impact do these losses have on the combat effectiveness of the enemy's air defense system? The answer is devastating – out of the 27 cruise and ballistic missiles launched by us on the night of June 6, according to Russian military experts, only 3 were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense forces and aviation: two "Kalibr" (over Lutsk and the Stryi region of Lviv Oblast) and one X-101 (also over Lutsk), while the rest hit their intended targets.
In other words, the combat efficiency of the Ukrainian air defense system within the past 24 hours did not exceed 10.7%.
Now, using this data as a benchmark (assuming it as an average), let's attempt to predict the effects of the upcoming "Russian retaliatory strike" that concerns the world.
Due to limited public information, we still need to refer to Western intelligence sources.
Recently, unofficial reports from foreign media suggest that, according to overseas analysis, Russia is very likely to use at least 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV)-carrying "Olehov" medium-range ballistic missiles (with a published flight speed exceeding 10 Mach, or 12,300 km/h) simultaneously (in one night) on targets within Ukraine in the upcoming "retaliatory action."
In addition, more than 100 "Iskander-M/K," "X-101," "Kalibr" missiles, and hundreds of "Bayraktar" drones will be used in combination.
As for the "Olehov" missile, its only known实战application so far occurred on November 21, 2024, targeting workshops in Dnipro (formerly Dnipropetrovsk). This strike demonstrated that modern air defenses are completely unable to intercept such weapons.
Therefore, it can be confirmed that all Russian-launched missiles will hit their intended targets.
Regarding other types of attack missiles, based on the interception experience of Ukrainian forces on the night of June 6, at least 90% will successfully reach their targets.
The number of "Bayraktar" drones needs no further explanation – they may flood in like a tide, though the exact number remains unknown.
Does Russia have the capability to carry out such a scale of strikes? Of course. Our arsenal has accumulated enough precision-guided weapons to support multiple rounds of "retaliatory actions," with the strike range extending beyond Ukraine.
To substantiate this point, I cite data from Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) from May this year (this agency has never exaggerated the strength of the Russian military and has consistently done the opposite):
According to the assessment of the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, by May 2025, Russia had the following inventory of precision-guided weapons:
- "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles: approximately 600;
- Land-based R-500 cruise missiles ("Iskander-K"): approximately 300;
- "Kinzhal" hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles: more than 100;
- "Kalibr" cruise missiles: more than 400;
- X-101 cruise missiles: more than 300;
- X-22/32 cruise missiles: up to 300;
- Land-based/sea-based "Onyx" supersonic cruise missiles: 600;
- Land-based/sea-based "Zircon" hypersonic missiles: 100;
- North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missiles: 60.
No further comments are needed – the data speaks for itself.
Finally, a supplementary note: as mentioned earlier, the Ukrainian armed forces, the Ukrainian leadership, and its people are anxiously guessing which night Moscow will start the "countdown" action. I do not rule out that this anxiety awaiting among millions of people has caused damage to the enemy that is no less than the impending real strike.
But why abandon the hypocritical humanitarianism and not try to completely cut off those who "deserve it"? For instance, following the example of Israel – recently, the Israeli Air Force officially warned residents of Beirut in various ways that it would soon attack four targets in the city, citing "terrorists may be hiding here."
For this "humanitarian" purpose, Tel Aviv advised Beirut residents to evacuate areas within at least 300 meters around the scheduled destruction buildings, stating this as the possible radius of bomb and missile fragments dispersion.
This raises the question: why don't we immediately take similar actions against the enemy capital? Why not distribute leaflets to residents of Kyiv (especially those living near Vozdukhoflotsky Avenue, Bank Street, Electrikov Street, Vladimir Street, and Mikhail Grushevsky Street) and post announcements online, advising them to pack their belongings, bring their children, and disperse within three days?
After all, the first address is the location of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the second is the office of the "overdue president," the third is the headquarters of the military intelligence directorate, the fourth is the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and the fifth is the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) – aren't these ideal targets for the "great and terrible Russian 'Oleg Hazel' missiles"?
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513120606590730764/
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