Amid the dual pressures of tariffs and geopolitics, the United States and Vietnam have finalized a crucial preliminary trade agreement. The Trump administration's goal is not to promote free trade, but to push China out of the global supply chain. Vietnam, a country sandwiched between China's formidable manufacturing capacity and its desire for more Western market orders, is being pushed to the front line of "de-Chinization."

A Deal Under Tariff Threats

Trump had threatened to impose punitive tariffs as high as 46% on Vietnamese exports, causing nerves among many multinational manufacturers. But the final agreement gave Vietnam a "breathing space": most of its exports would pay only 20% tariffs, while goods deemed "transit products from China" would face up to 40%.

This means that Chinese goods that use Vietnam as a transit route and are rebranded for export will be hit first. This is exactly what the Trump administration intends: to cut off China's trade routes through "third countries."

This clause has become a model, and the Trump administration is considering embedding similar provisions into negotiations with other Southeast Asian countries, especially Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. The purpose is clear: anyone who wants to do business with the U.S. must "filter out" China.

Vietnam's Dilemma and Bargaining

On the surface, Vietnam is the winner — at least better than a full 46% tariff. But behind the agreement, Vietnamese companies remain highly tense.

"A 20% tariff is already tough enough, but at least it's not a disaster," said a senior executive of a home fragrance export company with a bitter smile. His company exports almost all of its products to the U.S., now hoping that the tariffs won't escalate further.

At the same time, there has been a certain "split" within the Vietnamese business community. Some entrepreneurs privately support the U.S. imposing heavy taxes on "transit products," because Chinese small enterprises are flooding in under the guise of Vietnamese exports, squeezing the survival space of local manufacturers.

A shoe factory owner in Vietnam said, "Many Chinese companies just use Vietnam as a transit point, change the label, and continue to head to the U.S. While we, the honest producers, end up losing out."

But the problem is, how to define "Chinese products"? If a product contains 30% Chinese raw materials, is it considered a Chinese good? Or 50%? Or 80%?

This traceability mechanism presents an unprecedented challenge in Southeast Asia, where customs officers lack the technology, experience, and transparent enforcement framework. This could lead to a lot of compliance uncertainty, putting companies into a "compliance hell." Experts warn that if implemented improperly, it could evolve into widespread trade friction.

To comply with U.S. requirements, the Vietnamese government has begun a new round of audits and training for customs, while setting up special task forces to track the origins of products. However, whether such a complex system can cope with the vast import and export system remains questionable.

Vietnam Is Not an Island: Collective Tension in Asia

The Vietnam agreement is just the appetizer. Trump's trade team has already been pressuring Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand to actively "exclude China" from their supply chains.

Thailand faces the threat of a 36% tariff. The Thai government estimates that if strict scrutiny of transit exports is enforced, it could lose $1.5 billion in exports to the U.S., one-third of its trade surplus with the U.S. A Thai economic ministry official warned, "If the U.S.-China conflict continues, we will have to dance between two elephants."

Malaysia and Indonesia have taken preemptive actions, strengthening export document reviews and concentrating on issuing licenses. The Malaysian government has established a cross-ministerial working group to monitor the composition of exported goods, while Indonesia has introduced AI review systems at major ports to identify suspicious labels.

A Indonesian economist said directly, "Everyone understands that this is not a simple trade agreement, but a geopolitical maneuver."

However, the cost of these measures should not be ignored: additional export process costs, corporate confusion, delayed investments, and even the risk of regional supply chain fragmentation.

U.S. Companies: Relocate Back Home? Or Move to China Instead?

The Trump administration portrays its "de-China" trade war as a movement to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but reality is more surreal.

Cocona Labs, a high-tech textile company in Colorado, is an example. It has built a complex processing and recycling chain with several Asian countries through exporting functional masterbatches. Faced with high tariffs between the U.S. and China, they are considering relocating part of their production — not back to the U.S., but further to China.

"We're thinking about survival, not ideology," said CEO Jeff Bowman. He is ready to set up a factory in China, moving part of his production there to avoid interruptions in the existing customer chain due to U.S. tariffs.

More ironically, Cocona's business model is a prime example of "American-made, Asian-manufactured, global sales" — a reflection of the global supply chain. But now, this model is branded as "hostile" in the Trump trade strategy.

Bowman said, "We're not traitors, we just don't want to go bankrupt. We make functional materials, not flag pins." He pointed out that the majority of American consumers are unwilling to pay higher prices for domestic products, and bringing factories "back" is an empty slogan that will never be fulfilled.

China's Counterattack and Southeast Asia's Experimentation

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has started to "assess" the U.S.-Vietnam agreement, warning that any transaction that harms China's legitimate interests will be "firmly countered."

Southeast Asian countries are highly sensitive to this. On one hand, they rely on China's trade, investment, and geographical proximity; on the other, they dare not anger the U.S. market and strategic protection.

An anonymous Vietnamese commerce official said, "We are not choosing between the U.S. or China; we just want to keep our orders."

Uncertain Future: Traceability, Compliance, and Risk Premium

A variable that is generally overlooked but has significant influence is the technical and regulatory capability of "traceability rules."

Currently, Asian countries do not have a unified origin determination standard, and many countries even lack systematic records of raw material flows. What the U.S. hopes for is accurate data on the "Chinese production ratio" at the time of export declaration.

This almost means that every exporting country must establish new tracking systems, companies must cooperate with complete and transparent origin disclosure, and governments must have the personnel and capabilities to deal with intense inspections.

This could result in "pain for those who comply and punishment for those who don't," even distorting the entire regional production layout. Many companies are already considering establishing "dual supply chains" for the U.S. and Chinese markets, with cost increases of over 30%.

Epilogue: Not Isolating China, but Isolating Logic Itself?

Trump is trying to arm the global trade system with tariff tools to build a supply chain "free of Chinese components." But he has overlooked one thing: the complex structure of globalization has already made such a division costly and difficult to implement. The result is: American companies are anxious, Southeast Asian countries are hesitant, and the trade system is in constant fear.

This is not "making America stronger," but making every participant more nervous. And this complex geopolitical economic war has just begun.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523776185042616883/

Statement: This article represents the views of its author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.