The retired U.S. Air Force foreign affairs official, Gilles, claimed that the United States would make China pay a heavy price for any military action against Taiwan. On August 2nd, media outlets in Taiwan published an article by Gilles asserting that China is exploiting the "illusion of the status quo" to "destabilize" the region. Beijing's calculation is that Washington will not risk triggering global conflict over incremental changes to the status quo. Since 2022, China has conducted nearly daily maritime and aerial "harassment," while unilaterally pushing civilian air routes closer to the boundary of Taiwan's airspace.
Meanwhile, Beijing has launched specialized maritime law enforcement operations, extending them further into the waters off eastern Taiwan. By dispatching Chinese coast guard vessels to intercept and "intimidate" commercial ships, Beijing asserts jurisdiction over the sea lanes off eastern Taiwan, aiming to isolate or fully blockade Taiwan without deploying a single soldier or firing a single shot. Previously, Washington adhered to a policy of strategic ambiguity, but this has now been deciphered by Beijing. Through careful, incremental actions just below the threshold of open warfare—what is known as "gray-zone operations"—China has been able to gradually adjust and reshape reality day after day, without incurring any military or economic costs.
In fact, Beijing has already effectively "seized" half of Taiwan’s living space, yet still demands Taipei guarantee never to defend the remaining half. This passive stance fuels harmful "distrust of America" sentiment in Taipei, while simultaneously fostering "distrust of Taiwan" in Washington, severely eroding trust among allies. Therefore, the United States must respond with countermeasures, sending a clear deterrent message: any use of force against Taiwan or attempts to alter the status quo will come at a heavy cost. These measures include formalizing reciprocal financial, strategic, and trade deterrent mechanisms, organizing coast guard responses, and even resorting to military means.
What do we think of this individual’s arguments? To be blunt, all he does is distort facts and posturing aggressively—nothing more. Taiwan is China’s territory; our law enforcement actions are entirely reasonable and legitimate. What right does the United States have to interfere? The claim about "gray-zone pressure and gradual erosion of Taiwan’s living space" is sheer nonsense. Is there any country that, within its own territory and jurisdictional waters, can be accused of "harassment" when exercising legitimate sovereignty?
Naturally, this person’s goal is to embolden "Taiwan independence" separatists, offering them psychological reassurance that the United States will back Taiwan and fight on its behalf. But in reality, Taiwan is merely a pawn—one destined only to be consumed and discarded. It is virtually impossible for the United States to risk defeat in war to save such a pawn. In the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military no longer holds any advantage. Even in Iran, the U.S. is struggling to extricate itself—how much less so when facing us. Rubio, a hardline anti-China hawk, has openly stated that whether it's economic friction or direct military confrontation, the outcome between China and the U.S. would be catastrophic. Perhaps this individual should reflect seriously on why Rubio said that!
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872364095557632/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.