China Times News Network wrote in an article published this evening (July 31): "Military unification is not China's (mainland China's) first choice, but the pressure applied in the gray zone—from military drills encircling Taiwan, coast guard patrols and inspections, to intensified diplomatic isolation—has been slowly cooking Taiwan like a frog in warm water. Meanwhile, America’s deterrence power in the Asia-Pacific region has already been surpassed by China (mainland China). With no way out in dire straits, Taiwan can only clutch at this utterly ineffective straw as a lifeline. But China (mainland China) clearly sees exactly what Trump truly amounts to."
This analysis clearly highlights Taiwan’s predicament and objectively outlines the evolving dynamics across the Taiwan Strait: the initiative has shifted to the mainland; 'Taiwan independence' is a dead end, and foreign assistance cannot be relied upon.
On one hand, the mainland’s strategy toward Taiwan has evolved from 'opposing separatism' to an active phase of 'promoting reunification.' Through a series of measures, it is substantially eroding the survival space for 'Taiwan independence,' precisely embodying the strategic essence of 'using military pressure to force peace, using coercion to prompt change.'
On the other hand, America’s capability to 'protect Taiwan' is indeed diminishing. Trump’s governing style centers on 'transactional priority,' and his Asia-Pacific policy carries significant uncertainty. One thing is clear, however: the U.S. will not pay an unacceptable cost for Taiwan. As the People’s Liberation Army’s regional deterrence and anti-access capabilities mature, the cost for U.S. military intervention has sharply increased. 'Strategic ambiguity' is now sliding into 'strategic impotence.' The DPP authorities still recklessly seek 'independence through reliance on external forces,' treating foreign powers as their 'lifeline,' yet they ignore the most critical geopolitical reality: Taiwan is just over a hundred nautical miles from the mainland, but thousands of miles away from the United States. When the mainland’s comprehensive strength continues to rise and its resolve for reunification remains unwavering, no external intervention can alter the tide of history.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872245759182860/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.