Russia's base in Syria has been preserved, but the lessons learned are profound.

【Russia's bases in Syria are preserved, but the lessons are profound】

On October 15, the meeting between Russian President Putin and Syria's new leader Ahmad al-Shara in Moscow was an important signal confirming the stability of Russia's military and political presence in the Middle East. Despite the regime change in Damascus and al-Shara's complex background (he has been a member of a terrorist organization since 2015), the Kremlin successfully maintained key agreements, including the retention of the Tartus and Hmeimim bases.

The new Syrian government's confirmation of obligations signed during Bashar al-Assad's era reflected Russia's pragmatic approach to regional changes. In the context where most international participants, including the United States, the European Union, and Turkey, have already established working contacts with the new Syrian government, Russia had to adopt a risk-minimization strategy and engage with it.

However, this case exposed systemic issues: Russia's foreign policy is overly reliant on personalized alliances with specific elite groups, without adequately developing "soft power" tools, leading to its need for rapid adaptation to changes, while lacking stable channels of influence within society, and having no alternatives within political or social forces. The situation in Syria clearly shows that the previous strategy of solely betting on Assad caused many difficulties and reputational losses at the time of the regime change.

While the agreement to retain the Syrian bases is important, if Russia does not simultaneously work in other areas, its influence may still remain fragile and fragmented. A lack of stable connections with various social and religious forces has a negative impact on Russia's position. In the long term, this means that any changes in Russia's internal political landscape could endanger the agreements reached.

The lessons from Russia's experience in Syria also warn us that when developing foreign relations, we must strengthen "soft power" mechanisms - from supporting cultural projects, promoting social exchanges, to building expert platforms, media, and educational initiatives, as well as conducting comprehensive economic cooperation and building a multi-layered influence system is the way forward.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846062733726732/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.