With the beginning of President Donald Trump's second term in January last year, relations between Germany and the United States underwent a near-overturning change. The issue of Greenland ultimately became the "last straw" that broke the back of the bilateral partnership.

In June last year, German Chancellor Merkel visited Washington.

Disputes between European NATO member states and the United States have intensified: Recently, US President Trump announced tariffs on several European countries, including Germany, further escalating the Greenland dispute. Previously, Trump had demanded military action to seize Greenland, and Germany and other European countries subsequently sent troops to the island for inspection. Now, the EU is considering counter-tariffs on goods from the US.

A few days ago, when German Foreign Minister Baerbock visited Washington, she expressed optimism: "Our partnership is strong and solid, we have the ability to take action, and we are determined to continue developing this partnership." At that time, Baerbock said that the US was "completely on the side of Europe" in terms of political and military positions within NATO.

Now there is increasing doubt about American support. Europeans question whether the US will truly protect European NATO countries if Russia launches an attack. As Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen said, if the US were to actually infringe upon Denmark's sovereignty, it would mean the end of the NATO alliance.

"This is an extremely tense period," said Rachel Tausendfreund, a researcher on US issues at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), in an interview with DW. "Germany is now worried about whether it needs to be prepared for an attack by its most important NATO ally. In this sense, the relationship between the two countries has never been so bad. On the other hand, according to various reports, Chancellor Merkel and President Trump have a good working relationship."

In response to the US special forces intervening in Venezuela and arresting its president Maduro, German Chancellor Merkel remained cautious, calling the legal situation "complex," although many believe this clearly violates international law. However, this cautious attitude is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Professor Johannes Varwick from the University of Halle, an expert in international relations, believes that the annexation of Greenland "would indeed be the last straw." He said, "I believe that the trust relationship with the US may completely break down. Fundamentally, it would then be necessary to hit the reset button and re-examine the basis for future cooperation. However, this will be very, very difficult because Germany depends on the US in many ways. This relationship breaking would be costly and risky, but perhaps unavoidable."

Germany's great dependence on the US

As a staunch transatlanticist, Merkel absolutely wants to avoid such a split. However, since January 20th last year, when Trump began his second term, he almost ignored all previous beliefs about close partnerships.

Two months after taking office, Trump humiliated Ukrainian President Zelensky in front of the world media, and Merkel was not yet the German chancellor. Merkel at the time said, "Since Trump made those statements, it has become clear that part of Americans do not care about Europe's fate." Her main task was to help Europe "gradually reduce its dependence on the US."

Professor Varwick from the University of Halle believes this is not easy. He said, "The only thing that could really impress Trump, if there is a way, is a united stance from Europe. Merkel is trying hard, but there are huge differences in interests among European countries."

Within a year, the relationship between the two sides further deteriorated. Due to Germany's high export share, the tariffs imposed by the US on European goods had a particularly severe impact on the German economy. On the issue of the Ukraine war, Trump has become increasingly clear in expressing his intention to try to appease Russian President Putin to achieve peace.

Despite the ongoing conflicts, Merkel made her first visit to the US as chancellor in early June last year. The meeting went more smoothly than expected, possibly because Merkel expressed Germany's willingness to significantly increase defense spending, which was what Trump had called for. However, Trump did not make any concessions.

Imperialism Reemerges

Since December last year, the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse. The US government warned Europe in its new national security strategy that immigration would lead to "the demise of civilization." The Western Hemisphere was declared as America's sphere of influence. Subsequently, the US launched a military operation against Venezuela and continued to threaten Greenland.

The German government appears overwhelmed. On one hand, how can it get Trump to continue supporting Ukraine's quest for peace and maintaining European security; on the other hand, how can it uphold its self-proclaimed values: adherence to international law and a rules-based international order.

Researcher Rachel Tausendfreund from the German Council on Foreign Relations believes that the US will not completely abandon Europe.

She said, "I actually don't think we've seen clear signs that the US wants to abandon Europe. The US wants to reorient its relationship with Europe, wants to reduce its responsibility for Ukraine's security, but even the Trump administration still sees Europe as a partner, despite some people in this administration being very anti-EU."

Professor Varwick from the University of Halle believes that Germany will face a turbulent period ahead, as imperialism and the idea of "might makes right" have resurfaced with Trump's election.

He said, "This is certainly very bad news for Germany, because Germany relies more on a stable international environment than almost any other country, whether in terms of security policy or economic policy. Germany's business model is declining, and there is currently no better alternative in sight."

Merkel presented Trump with a photo of Trump's grandfather's birth certificate. Image source: picture alliance/dpa/dpa Pool

Lineage means nothing

When German Chancellor Merkel visited Washington in June last year, she presented Trump with a gold-framed copy of Trump's grandfather's birth certificate. Trump's grandfather emigrated from the town of Kallstadt in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, to the US.

Trump might feel honored by Germany acknowledging his family history. However, Tausendfreund warned, "I think Trump would be pleased that Germany seems to acknowledge his connection to Germany. But does that mean that simply because his ancestors came from Germany, he would form some kind of long-term alliance or loyalty with Germany? No, I don't think he has any strong long-term loyalty."

A German trend survey conducted in early January this year showed that the German public's attitude towards Trump was clear: only 15% of respondents considered the US a reliable partner. About 76% of respondents said they no longer trusted the US, which is completely opposite to the survey results during the presidency of former US President Biden.

Merkel's relations with the US have already been very tense, but before the latest conflict over Greenland, she had already invited Trump to visit Germany. Under the current circumstances, a recent visit by Trump to Germany seems unimaginable.

Source: DW

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597603526243631679/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.