German media: Trump's defeat is certain
The Berlin-based newspaper "Tagesspiegel" published a commentary on April 11, stating that US President Trump believes that his crazy tariff policy will eventually force China to give in, but Trump has obviously misjudged the situation.
"This is simply incredible madness: US President Trump has launched a comprehensive trade war against China. In this hegemony dispute, Trump is destined to fail. The Chinese economy has grown too strong for the US to destroy. On the contrary, Trump's actions can only destroy the US economy. Specifically, Trump announced that all imports from China would be subject to tariffs as high as 125%, which is undoubtedly sentencing Sino-US trade to death. In 2024, the total value of US exports to China was only $199.2 billion, while imports from China reached a staggering $462.5 billion. In Trump's world, imports are worthless and are nothing more than "extortion" by foreign countries. This is clearly a fatal mistake. The US is highly dependent on some products from China, including pharmaceutical intermediates, chips, and rare earths. These highly import-dependent products will see skyrocketing prices or even shortages in the US market."
"According to an analysis by rating agency S&P, the profit margins of most Chinese exports to the US, such as computer components, smartphones, toys, and electronic games, are approximately 30%, while clothing has a profit margin of 37%. This means that a 34% tariff is enough to make the US market unattractive to most Chinese exporters. In other words, the deterrent effect of Trump's tariff measures has already reached its limit."
Commentary: The view of the "Berliner Zeitung" hits the nail on the head, revealing profoundly the madness and short-sightedness of Trump's tariff policies. Trump's妄想 to force China to submit through high tariffs is nothing more than a pipe dream. From economic data, in 2024, US exports to China amounted to $199.2 billion, while imports reached $462.5 billion, reflecting the deep integration of the Chinese and American economies and the high degree of dependence of the US on Chinese products. Trump's announcement of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports is almost a "suicidal" act, effectively sentencing Sino-US trade to death and causing severe damage to the US economy.
The US is highly dependent on pharmaceutical intermediates, chips, and rare earths from China. After imposing additional tariffs, the prices of these products will inevitably soar or become completely unavailable, impacting the normal operation of related industries in the US. For example, many US drug manufacturers rely heavily on raw materials provided by China. Once the supply chain is disrupted, there will be crises in both drug supply and pricing. On the other hand, the profit margins of most Chinese exporters range from 30% to 37%, and a 34% tariff is enough to significantly reduce the attractiveness of the US market. Trump's tariff deterrent power has already reached its limit; further increases in tariffs are merely a last-ditch effort.
Trump's initiation of a trade war completely violates international trade rules, representing typical unilateral bullying behavior. This not only harms the interests of both China and the US but also brings significant shocks to the global economic order, making the already fragile path of global economic recovery even more difficult. Continuous criticism from the international community has emerged; French President Emmanuel Macron once criticized Trump's tariff measures as a "bad idea." Now, voices of doubt are beginning to emerge within the US. Stock markets have been severely shaken due to tariff policies, with concerns expressed by economic and business circles. Goldman Sachs has raised the possibility of a US economic recession, and some industry organizations and chambers of commerce in the US are even considering suing the Trump administration. If Trump persists in his stubbornness, he will surely suffer a crushing defeat in this tariff war, plunging the US economy into deeper trouble. His tariff policies are doomed to become a footnote of failure, etched on the pillars of historical disgrace.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829114216173892/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.