Word count: 3212
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
Author | Hemant Krishan Singh, translated by Lin Xilang, reviewed by Hu Keyi, editor of this issue | Ren Zhengmiao
Reviewer of this issue | Shan Minmin
Editor's Note
This article argues that the recent reversal in U.S.-India relations does not stem from irreconcilable differences between the two sides, but rather primarily due to the unilateral policy shift of the Trump administration—intensifying confrontation between American unilateralism and India's strategic autonomy. The United States has demanded India to fully align with its interests on policies toward Russia, trade arrangements, and global strategic positioning. This "zero-sum" demand ignores India's practical needs and deviates from the logic of a "win-win" partnership. The article emphasizes that India has demonstrated mature diplomatic behavior in the face of external pressure: it has retained strategic room for maneuver to stabilize the relationship while firmly refuting "misleading narratives." If the U.S. fails to fully recognize India's strategic value, it will not only fail to achieve the expected returns, but may also weaken its influence. However, although the article reveals the short-sightedness and unilateral tendencies of U.S. policy, its argument always implicitly follows a "India-centric" logic. Rather than being a calm analysis of U.S.-India relations, it is more like a declaration for India to seek the "supportive dividends" from the U.S., attempting to guide the U.S. to refocus on containing China. If one understands U.S.-India relations solely through a "India is blameless, the U.S. should adjust" narrative without addressing the structural constraints in India's strategic game, it would be difficult to deeply understand the complexity of this relationship and the fundamental problems underlying India's diplomatic effectiveness. The South Asian Research Newsletter translates this article for readers' critical reference.
Image source: The Week
The Modi-Trump summit on February 13, 2025, achieved positive and forward-looking results. Now, however, U.S.-India relations are once again at a turning point, an outcome that surprised everyone. Currently, mutual trust between the U.S. and India is being undermined, confidence is shaken, and uncertainty is quietly emerging. Public support within India for developing U.S.-India relations has significantly weakened, and there is a clear risk of regression in bilateral relations.
So far, India has consistently shown strategic restraint in dealing with the situation, leaving room for the relationship to return to its original track. However, in response to some misleading statements and "radical economic pressures" from Trump, India has promptly and confidently clarified them without hesitation.
We can only hope that this strategic partnership, built over generations and spanning multiple governments and leadership changes in both countries, will not ultimately collapse. Disputes on trade and various strategic issues have cast a shadow over the future of U.S.-India bilateral relations, and both governments are still actively engaging to seek solutions.
High-level exchanges between the U.S. and India in the coming months remain worth expecting and achievable, but this requires greater diplomatic efforts and more thorough preparation. The Trump administration, citing the need to address the threat posed by the Russian government to the U.S., imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, which is unprecedented. America's actions against India's purchase of Russian oil, while ignoring other larger-scale purchases of Russian oil, are hard to view as anything other than intentional hostile behavior.
Additionally, the appointment of Sergio Gor, a private assistant to Trump with no diplomatic background, who lacks understanding of India and the complexity of the region surrounding it, as the U.S. ambassador to India, and his simultaneous role as special envoy for South and Central Asian affairs, has already raised widespread concerns in Indian politics. By adopting showy and talkative postures to pressure and push a transactional diplomacy under the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) agenda, this approach will further erode the already limited strategic consensus between the U.S. and India. The challenges facing the U.S. and India are continuously intensifying, and their already tense relationship seems to be spiraling downward.
India and the U.S. were once referred to as "estranged democracies," and their relationship has had many difficult moments and periodic tensions, never smooth sailing. Trust and mutual understanding between the two sides were painstakingly built. Even the most solid bilateral relationships require careful nurturing. As the world's two largest and most powerful democratic nations, the U.S.-India relationship is no exception.
Evidently, the uncertainties and obstacles in U.S.-India relations are increasing. Negative narratives about India are prevalent, many of which either deviate from the facts or are disconnected from the reality of India, a vibrant democratic country. In this context, the U.S. leadership still seems not to have fully determined what kind of partnership it wants with India.
These narratives persist, not only blaming India for its strategic autonomy and sovereign decisions, but also deliberately downplaying India's vision of building a more democratic and multipolar world order. From a strategic perspective, such rhetoric essentially demands that India compress its strategic space and align closely with U.S. interests; however, the returns that such alignment could bring are either highly uncertain or minimal. For India, this is certainly not a reasonable and feasible path.
The recent dispute between the U.S. and India over tariffs has long gone beyond the scope of fair, balanced, and equal trade. The core of the issue is using coercive means to gain geopolitical leverage and unilaterally reshape the world order. In pursuit of its own convenience, the U.S. forcibly ties trade and non-trade issues together, claiming to be "applying pressure to third countries." Furthermore, the U.S. seems to demand that India present a satisfactory commitment plan, and these requirements must align with the ever-changing expectations of the U.S., which is highly uncertain.
Such demands are clearly unrealistic. A truly viable solution cannot be one-sided. As a developing democratic country, India must strictly protect the most vulnerable areas of its economy. Those voices demanding that India simply comply obviously ignore this basic fact.
India is not a "dead economy," but rather the fastest-growing major economy in the world, with a vast, attractive, and unsaturated market that offers opportunities to global partners. For U.S. companies driven by technology and services, the Indian market is especially important. Additionally, India faces a significant trade deficit, and it is not a mercantilist country that gains profits at the expense of others. Perhaps another country excels in this regard. Objectively speaking, it is unnecessary for the U.S. to target India, which is a shortsighted strategy.
India's continued rise is a significant geopolitical milestone on the global stage, and this process is certain to bring tangible benefits to the U.S. and the Western world. For the U.S., whether it ignores or minimizes India's strategic value or tries to undermine India's economic prospects, it will ultimately fail and gain no benefits from it.
Over the past decade, the Indian government led by Modi has always prioritized building a comprehensive strategic partnership with the U.S. The foundation of this partnership lies in the shared pursuit of regional and global stability and prosperity between the two countries—there is resonance in terms of values, as well as compatibility in interests. India is aware of the unique weight of the U.S., which is not only the world's leading superpower, but also a key partner in helping India achieve economic and technological advancement, and an indispensable collaborative force in the Indo-Pacific defense and security domain. Looking ahead, people sincerely hope that the situation will move in a positive direction, and all signs indicate that India will continue to fulfill its commitments and deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership with the U.S.
But to achieve this, mutual benefit and mutual respect between the U.S. and India are needed, and so far, these two points seem to be absent.
Some U.S. observers refer to the U.S.'s strategic engagement with India as "strategic altruism," claiming that such interactions are not aimed at gaining returns. But this claim is untenable—the interests between the U.S. and India are actually mutually beneficial. In fact, the strategic benefits gained by India are quite limited, while the U.S. keeps increasing its demands on India. Irony is that the biggest beneficiary of so-called U.S. "altruism" is not the democratic country of India, but China. Over the past half-century, the U.S. has always created conditions and provided space for China's rise as a great power. In contrast, India barely escaped the shadow of U.S. sanctions until this century, and this breathing space is likely to be fleeting.
In today's world, geopolitical competition is rampant, the rule-based international order is being undermined, protectionism is rising, and globalization is slowing down. In this extremely unfavorable global environment, India's influence is growing. Moreover, the U.S. is gradually sending friendly signals to Russia and China, and the real intentions behind this are unclear. These dynamics may also affect issues of concern to India and its own interests.
Indian leadership is keenly aware of this. The more adversity it faces, the more determined it becomes to safeguard its strategic autonomy and accelerate the pursuit of comprehensive strength, injecting stronger momentum into achieving self-reliance in economic development, high technology, and national defense capabilities. India has established a good diversified trade structure with multiple partners and can naturally explore new growth paths in the future. The relationships between India and major Eurasian powers, emerging and developed economies in Asia, BRICS countries, and "Global South" countries have become central topics in India's foreign policy. So far, in this multi-directional alliance strategy, the U.S.-India relationship has always been a priority.
Trust, stability, and reliability are key elements for any relationship to develop positively. India can patiently wait for the U.S. to clarify what kind of U.S.-India bilateral relationship it wishes to build, while continuing to expect the potential of this broad-based partnership. However, reversing the hostile signals currently openly expressed by the U.S. towards India and the speculative geopolitical manipulation targeting India is certainly no easy task. The current sharp decline in U.S.-India relations is not in the U.S.'s interest, and the responsibility to break the deadlock now falls on the Trump administration.
About the Author: Hemant Krishan Singh served in the Indian Foreign Service from 1974 to 2010 and held the position of Ambassador of India to Japan, Indonesia, and other countries. Since June 2016, he has served as Executive Director of the Delhi Policy Group (DPG), an independent think tank in India.
This article was translated from a piece published on the website of the Delhi Policy Group (DPG) on August 27, 2025, titled "India - US Relations at Inflection Point". Original link:
https://www.delhipolicygroup.org/publication/detail/india-us-relations-at-inflection-point
Editor of this issue: Ren Zhengmiao
Reviewer of this issue: Shan Minmin
* Send "translation" to the official account's backend to view the previous translation collection.
We welcome your valuable comments or suggestions in the comment section, but please ensure that they are polite and respectful. Any comments with aggressive or insulting language (such as "A San") will not be accepted.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7558873863656833586/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author and welcomes you to express your attitude in the 【like/dislike】 button below.