According to a report by the National Institution for Transforming India (Niti Aayog), an Indian think tank, India's export structure is seriously mismatched with global demand. On October 6, the Niti Aayog released its fourth-quarter trade outlook report for the fiscal year 2024-25. The total trade volume of India in this fiscal year reached $1.73 trillion, an increase of 6% compared to the previous fiscal year, with exports amounting to $823 billion and imports reaching $908 billion. In terms of exports, India's export trade has shown three characteristics: first, service exports remain strong, driven by industries such as telecommunications, information technology, and business services, with service exports growing by 13.6% in this fiscal year. Second, there is a mismatch between exported products and global demand. From the perspective of share, about 66% of global commodity imports are concentrated in certain specific categories, while India's export share in these areas is only 0.2%. At the same time, in product categories that account for only 3% of global imports, India's export share is as high as 18.2%. From the perspective of product categories, global demand prefers high-value products such as electronics and automobiles, but India's products are still stuck in economic crops such as jute, tea, coffee, and cotton. Third, the growth of India's export share is slow. Between 2005 and 2024, India's share of global goods exports increased from 1% to 2%, far behind China's increase from 7% to 15%. In terms of imports, India's main sources of imports are China, the UAE, Russia, and the US, which together provide about 39% of India's imported goods. To improve the trade imbalance, the CEO of the National Institution for Transforming India, B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, proposed three suggestions: first, improve the efficiency of key production factors such as capital, land, labor, and public facilities, reduce their usage costs, and enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing. Second, further open up the market and promote the free flow of factors. Third, expand trade markets and strengthen economic and trade relations with Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.

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