October 7, 2025, Issue No. 1061
Editor on Duty: Rao Jinshan He Jiawei
Reviewer: Wang Ruotong Du Dazhuang
Executive Editor-in-Chief: Chen Zhuo
*To read today's newspaper, please follow the WeChat official account "South Asia Research Group"
Photo Source: The Indian Express
The Indian Express published an opinion article titled "India Needs to Adopt a 'Chinese Approach' for Dams" on October 4, which states that India's dam construction lags behind China and may struggle to meet future economic and social development needs. The author of the article, Asit K. Biswas, is an Honorary Visiting Professor at the University of Glasgow and a Visiting Professor at the New Delhi Policy Research Center. Cecilia Tortajada is an Honorary Professor at the University of Glasgow and a Visiting Professor at the New Delhi Policy Research Center.
Looking back at history, both China and India started large-scale dam construction projects almost simultaneously, but the differences between the two countries have become increasingly pronounced. In 1957 and 1963, India completed two major dams, Hirakud and Bhakra, which operated successfully. At the same time, China also completed the Sanmenxia Dam in 1960, but due to severe siltation, it lost 17% of its reservoir capacity during the first flood. Since the late 1980s, the differences in large dam policies between China and India have become evident, mainly involving issues related to resettlement of displaced people. In the 1990s, India's dam construction stagnated, which could be called a "lost decade." During this period, the Indian government advocated "small is beautiful, big is evil," encouraging small-scale projects such as rainwater harvesting and small dams instead of large dams. The Supreme Court even halted the Sardar Sarovar Dam for six years when it was nearly completed, and the World Bank and Asian Development Bank also suspended investment in large dam projects in India. In contrast, China continued to build large dams, viewing them as key infrastructure for economic development, and adopted a pragmatic strategy, assessing problems after completing several large dams and revising policies to avoid repeating mistakes in subsequent projects.
After 2000, the capabilities of China and India in dam construction became significantly different. China made significant breakthroughs in planning and constructing large dams, rapidly becoming a leading country in dam construction worldwide, far surpassing countries like India. Especially, China recognized that large dams not only enhance water security but also ensure energy security. In 2000, China anticipated becoming the world's largest oil importer and therefore accelerated dam construction to achieve multiple goals such as flood control, stable water supply, and renewable energy generation. During this period, the gap between China and India in hydropower development widened rapidly: India's total installed capacity was 218 million kilowatts (21.8 GW), while China's was 770.8 million kilowatts (77.08 GW). By the end of 2024, India's installed capacity increased to 427.2 million kilowatts (42.72 GW), while China surged to 435.95 million kilowatts (435.95 GW), more than ten times that of India. Currently, no country in the world can rival China in dam construction. In 2024, the global new hydropower installed capacity was 246 million kilowatts (24.6 GW), with China contributing 144 million kilowatts (14.4 GW), accounting for nearly 60%.
Both China and India have monsoon climates, with highly concentrated annual rainfall. Intense short-term rainfall means that efficient interception and storage are necessary to ensure water supply throughout the year, which requires the combined efforts of large, medium, and small dams, groundwater, and rainwater collection facilities. However, since the 1980s, India's dam construction has performed poorly, leading to severe water shortages over the past few decades. Even in cities where rainfall is abundant, there is still a shortage of water supply during the dry season due to the lack of water storage facilities. Considering that India's population will increase to about 1.7 billion by 2050, its GDP plans to multiply before 2047, and the general public's expectations for their standard of living are rising, if India does not quickly build various water storage facilities, its social and economic development may face risks.
NEWS
Photo Source: National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog)
The Print reported on October 6 that India's export structure is severely mismatched with global demand. On October 6, the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog) released the fourth-quarter trade observation report for the fiscal year 2024-25. The total trade volume of India in this fiscal year reached $1.73 trillion, an increase of 6% compared to the previous fiscal year, with exports amounting to $823 billion and imports reaching $908 billion. In terms of exports, India's export trade showed three characteristics: first, service exports remained strong, driven by industries such as telecommunications, information technology, and business services, with service exports growing by 13.6% in this fiscal year. Second, there is a mismatch between export products and global demand. Globally, about 66% of imported goods are concentrated in certain specific categories, while India's export share in these areas is only 0.2%. At the same time, in product categories that account for only 3% of global import volume, India's export share reaches as high as 18.2%. From a product category perspective, global demand favors high-value products such as electronics and automobiles, but India's products remain focused on cash crops such as jute, tea, coffee, and cotton. Third, the growth of India's export share has been slow. India's share of global commodity exports increased from 1% to 2% between 2005 and 2024, far below the increase of 7% to 15% in China. In terms of imports, India's main sources of imports are China, the UAE, Russia, and the US, which together provide about 39% of India's imported goods. To improve the trade imbalance, NITI Aayog's Chief Executive Officer, B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, proposed three suggestions: first, improve the efficiency of key production factors such as capital, land, labor, and public infrastructure, reduce their usage costs, and enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing. Second, further open up the market and promote the free flow of factors. Third, expand trade markets and strengthen economic and trade relations with Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.
NEWS
Photo Source: Deutsche Welle
Deutsche Welle reported on October 6 that India is accelerating its drone strategic layout to counter threats from China and Pakistan. After the India-Pakistan conflict on May 7, the Indian military took a series of measures to compensate for its shortcomings in unmanned combat: first, Prime Minister Modi proposed the creation of a "Sudarshan Chakra" (literally "Good Sight Wheel", one of the weapons of the Hindu deity Vishnu) in August, aiming to establish a domestic air defense system equivalent to Israel's "Iron Dome" by 2035. Second, the Indian armed forces plan to conduct the largest-ever "Cold Start" (Cold Start) drone joint exercise, testing air defense and anti-drone systems to enhance comprehensive defense capabilities. Third, the Border Security Force (BSF) in Madhya Pradesh established the first drone operations school, aiming to train "drone突击 teams" capable of carrying out tasks such as reconnaissance, patrol, anti-drone operations, and dropping bombs when necessary. Analysts said that cases such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the India-Pakistan conflict show that drone systems are reshaping the battlefield, and India needs to develop a comprehensive drone strategy covering equipment types, operational methods, team building, and industrial capacity development, while improving the "drone literacy" of frontline personnel.
NEWS
Photo Source: CNBC
American Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) reported on October 5 that due to the deterioration of U.S.-India trade relations, U.S. tech companies have delayed their plans to rent "hyperscalers" data centers in India. It is reported that tech giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are still preparing projects to use data centers, but they remain undecided. Currently, hyperscalers account for 30% of India's data center demand, and this proportion is expected to rise to 35%. However, industry insiders say that new data center projects in India have been put on hold for over two months, and tech companies may reassess their plans within the next 3-6 months. Analysts stated that new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on India disrupt global supply chains, with tariff transfers, legal changes, and phased capacity clauses becoming new standards, making it difficult for companies to estimate equipment and investment costs. Nevertheless, despite the challenges, industry assessments still expect e-commerce, cloud infrastructure, and artificial intelligence computing demand growth to drive India's data center capacity to double to over 3.5 gigawatts by 2030. Analysts noted that tech companies still favor the Indian market, but the speed of project signing may slow down. For example, Google is negotiating with the Andhra Pradesh government to build a 1 gigawatt data center, and OpenAI is also seeking partners to develop similar projects.
NEWS
Photo Source: The Times of India
The Times of India reported on October 5 that the Raipur police in Chhattisgarh dismantled a large Chinese-related network fraud and money laundering gang base, arresting four people. According to the report, the Raipur police arrested four suspects from Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Gujarat under the "Cyber Shield Operation," seized 50 mobile phones, 10 computers, 60 sets of bank account kits, and several mobile cards, and sealed three fake office locations. It is claimed that the criminal gang deceived victims by creating fake dating websites and posting fabricated dating profiles, and then transferred the proceeds of the fraud into hundreds of "mule accounts" (accounts used to transfer illegal funds). These accounts are remotely controlled by Chinese criminal accomplices, and the gang members take commissions based on the transaction volume of the accounts. Investigations found that the gang had 79 and 17 "mule accounts" respectively in HDFC Bank and South Indian Bank, with涉案资金 reaching tens of millions of rupees. Currently, the Indian police have requested banks to closely monitor large abnormal transactions to trace more involved individuals.
NEWS
Photo Source: The Sri Lanka Daily
The Sri Lanka Daily reported on October 6 that Sri Lanka is becoming a "new paradise" for large-scale fraud gangs from China and India, and the country may become a new hub for global cybercrime, impacting its economic stability. The report exposed the "landing" model of crime gangs from China and India in Sri Lanka: criminals usually enter the country on tourist visas, operate large-scale online fraud and gambling centers, and generally rent parts of luxury hotel floors as crime locations. Then, they recruit local employees with high salaries, requiring applicants to sign strict confidentiality agreements. Before entering the "office," they must go through two security checks. The report stated that the operation of Chinese and Indian crime gangs differs: the former is usually well-organized, accustomed to bribing, and uses the sale of Chinese food as a cover; the latter is adept at exploiting loopholes in Sri Lankan real estate regulatory environment and advantages in cash control. The report pointed out that the cybercrime ecosystem in Sri Lanka is increasingly rampant, but relevant institutions are unable to cope. The main reasons are two: first, the country's cybersecurity infrastructure is weak, lacking a strong firewall to restrict access to illegal sites such as the dark web; second, law enforcement agencies lack the capability and willingness to enhance technical expertise in combating cybercrime. Analysts pointed out that although China and India have recently increased efforts to combat cybercrime, if Sri Lanka does not strengthen its own digital security regulation, it may become a safe haven for global cybercrime, which could impact its banking sector and overall economic stability.
NEWS
Photo Source: Press Trust of India
The Print, The Indian Express, and NDTV reported on October 6 that the upcoming 2025 assembly elections in Bihar may see the fewest voting phases and the shortest election period in over 20 years. In terms of specific arrangements, the election is planned to be held in two stages on November 6 and 11, with counting scheduled for November 14. This election will re-elect 243 assembly constituencies in Bihar. The first phase of voting covers 121 constituencies in the central part of the state, while the second phase involves 122 constituencies in the northern, eastern, and southern parts. Notably, this election may be the one with the fewest voting phases and the shortest duration in Bihar in over 20 years, for two reasons: first, political parties have demanded to move the election to October 25-28 to attract voters returning after the "Chhath Puja" festival; second, to avoid repeating the situation in the 2024 Indian general election, where high temperatures combined with a long election period led to a decline in voter turnout. Regarding the participating political parties, three major forces will compete: first, the ruling alliance "National Democratic Alliance" (NDA) led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and its allies, mainly consisting of the BJP, Janata Dal (United) (JD), Janata Dal (Loktantrik) (LJP), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM); second, the opposition "Mahagathbandhan" led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), whose allies include the Congress Party, CPI (Marxist), CPI, and CPI; third, the Jan Suraaj Party led by political strategist Prashant Kishor. In terms of the number of voters, after the "Special Intensive Revision" of the voter list, the state now has 74.3 million (7.43 crore) voters, a decrease of 3.8 million (38 lakh) from the revised list, including 1.4 million first-time voters. Notably, there are significant disputes surrounding the SIR process. Opposition parties such as the Congress Party questioned the short data collection time and the stance of the Election Commission responsible for revising the voter count, claiming that SIR is "electoral fraud."
*To read today's newspaper, please follow the WeChat official account "South Asia Research Group"
Editor of this issue: Ren Zhengmiao
Reviewer of this issue: Shan Minmin
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