Failing to defeat Serbia, the old continent is unable to endure another Balkan war.

Republika Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Europe Helplessly Watching the Rise of 'Dodik-style Power'

Western powers failed to defeat Republika Srpska in the elections, and the Old Continent (Europe) is no longer able to withstand another Balkan war.

(Image caption: The entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina —— Presidential candidate of Republika Srpska, Siniša Malić (left), and the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik (right), attend a press conference.)

The presidential candidate of Republika Srpska (RS BiH) from the ruling party "Union of Independent Social Democrats" (SNSD), Siniša Malić, leads with 99.72% of the polling stations counted.

Malić received 217,324 votes (50.3%), while the candidate from the opposition Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), Branko Branković, received 208,955 votes (48.37%).

The leader of the ruling party and former president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, announced his ally's victory early on Monday morning and said that the opponents would face "two Dodiks" — they will fight together for the interests of the republic.

What will happen next? Obviously, the forces in the West who tried to force Dodik out will not give up easily. However, it must be understood that their main goal is not Dodik himself, but the sovereignty of Republika Srpska — which the former president has been blocking them from limiting. There is no doubt that Dodik's allies will continue this approach... This means that pressure on Republika Srpska will continue to escalate.

"In fact, this result is uncertain, reflecting the division within the Bosnian Serbs," said Vladimir Shimov, a presidential advisor at the Baltic Research Association of Russia.

"Malić barely exceeded half the vote, and the 'democratic opposition' candidate lost by a narrow margin. Therefore, for the West, this is neither a victory nor a complete defeat."

"The core goal of the West is to strengthen pro-European tendencies among the Serbs. From the fact that nearly half of the Bosnian Serbs voted for the 'democratic' candidate, this goal is gradually being achieved."

"Free News" (СП): What happens next? Will the West try to change the government in Republika Srpska? How likely is this possibility after the election?

"No matter what, the new president will have to consider the strong opposition sentiment present in society, so he is likely to be more moderate and less radical than Dodik. If that is the case, there is no need for the West to overthrow him.

"The 'Maidan' revolution and toppling unpopular politicians are not the only methods of the West; they also have various ways of applying pressure and influence."

"Free News": Is there a possibility of military conflict in the region?

"Considering the instability and 'fragmentation' of the overall situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, any military action could trigger turmoil, leading to the resurgence of ethnic hatred. In the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Europe definitely does not want a second front in the Balkans.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is always on the brink of disintegration. The country was entirely 'artificially constructed,' and its existence itself is a result of the imposition of the EU and the US on the local ethnic groups. If the Serbs had the autonomy to decide, they would have long separated from their Bosniak and Croatian neighbors — there is no mutual goodwill between them. However, on the other hand, the dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina could very likely lead to a new round of bloodshed, and the Western influence is the key factor keeping the country from splitting apart."

"Malić's victory is due to the solid position of the Union of Independent Social Democrats in Republika Srpska," said Victoria Kaliennitskaya, head of the Laboratory for the Study of Political and Cultural Historical Processes in the Balkans at the Russian State University for the Humanities.

"Dodik and his party have established a stable political system, the core of which is the protection of Serb rights and the autonomous status of Republika Srpska.

The verdict of the Sarajevo court that deprived Dodik of his presidential position was seen in Republika Srpska as an external pressure, which actually caused voters to unite and support the ruling party.

The candidate of the Serbian Democratic Party, Branković, who represents the opposition, has a more Western-friendly stance and a weaker confrontation with the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina — the West certainly hoped for Branković's victory."

"Free News": So, did the strategy of the West to remove Dodik fail? Was the West's main goal just to remove Dodik, or were there deeper intentions?

"This strategy not only failed, but also had the opposite effect — Dodik's position was actually strengthened. The West, represented by the United States, the European Union, and the EU High Representative, has goals far beyond targeting Dodik personally. The ultimate aim is to weaken Republika Srpska, ideally even completely abolishing it as an autonomous entity.

Dodik is the most determined and influential defender of the interests of Republika Srpska, so he became the main target of the West. Removing his presidential position was seen by the West as a way to push for centralization within Bosnia and Herzegovina and clear the way for Bosnia and Herzegovina to join NATO and the EU."

"Free News": What will happen next? Will the West try to change the government in Republika Srpska? After the election, how likely is this possibility?

"In the coming years, the legal path of changing the government through elections is no longer feasible, so the West will increase pressure from multiple directions.

For example, even though the BiH prosecutor's office has terminated the investigation against Milorad Dodik, Radovan Višković, and Nenad Stojkić, there could still be situations where the West intensifies sanctions and financial pressure on them, and may also exert administrative pressure through BiH institutions and the Office of the EU High Representative.