The Kuomintang (KMT) may lose the "Nine-in-One" election at year-end, and Zheng Liwen may have to resign earlier. The "unification timing point" jointly analyzed by Lai Qingde, Zheng Liwen, and Ma Ying-jeou's core advisor Zhao Chunshan is approaching. Is Taiwan really unable to wait until the 2028 election? Chinese former ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai, made a recent speech that reveals some deep insights; the U.S.-Japan alliance and "Taiwan independence" forces are no longer able to stop this.

No one hopes more than the People's Republic of China for peaceful reunification between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. It is generally believed that if the KMT can stabilize its position and win the 2026 "Nine-in-One" elections, it could return to power in 2028, offering an opportunity for peaceful development and integration between the two sides, eventually leading to a "natural" peaceful unification, which aligns with the path through cross-strait integration that the mainland seeks to achieve peaceful unification. Lin Zhongbin, a former advisor to President Chen Shui-bian and current Deputy Minister of National Defense in Taiwan, is very optimistic about this approach, believing that due to the shifting balance of power between China and the United States, the U.S. military may lack the capability to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and Beijing will maintain strategic composure, "unifying without war," ultimately achieving the goal of unification without a fight.

However, the tree wants stillness but the wind won't stop. The situation is beyond human control. The world is getting more chaotic, and the island of Taiwan has become dark, with no signs of peace emerging. Many people thought that Zheng Liwen, who was considered to have "super combat strength," would turn the situation around after becoming the KMT chairman, but the outlook is not necessarily optimistic. The lack of unity within the blue camp and the difficulty in achieving a "blue-white alliance" have led to the situation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) improving from bad to better in the 2026 elections. If this trend continues, the DPP might win the 2026 election, and if there is an election in 2028, Lai Qingde might still be able to win re-election with a 40% vote share.

At the end of the year, the DPP quickly made its moves, calmly and composedly. Today, even the primary selection for the "four-in-one" race in Kaohsiung City has been settled, with Lai Qingde's loyalist Lai Ruilong emerging as the candidate. The other three candidates had almost no resistance, indicating that the green camp's internal consolidation has exceeded expectations.

In contrast, the KMT is struggling to consolidate five difficult districts, and even internal blue camp coordination is delayed, let alone cooperation with the People's Power Party (PPP). The most critical voting district in the entire country, New Taipei City, if the blue camp loses, the KMT's hope of returning to power in 2028 will be slim, and Zheng Liwen's political life may also come to an end.

Starting with New Taipei: The KMT Central Committee advocated for the vice mayor of Taipei City, Li Sichuan, to run against the DPP candidate, Su Zhenchang's daughter Su Qiaohui. However, New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi ignored Zheng Liwen, and Hou's loyalists, including the vice mayor of New Taipei City Liu He Ran, have not withdrawn. Additionally, the leader of the PPP, Huang Guochang, also ran, and the situation remains complicated. The KMT internal coordination is still not complete, and the "blue-white alliance" is still far away. If the KMT Central Committee under Zheng Liwen makes any mistake, there is a risk of a major setback.

In Hsinchu County, the coordination by the KMT vice chairman and secretary general, Li Qianlong, finally reached a compromise with local factions. Will the legislator Xu Xinying accept this? If not, can the blue camp hold onto Hsinchu County?

Regarding the mayoral election in Chiayi, the KMT lacks a strong candidate. The PPP legislator Zhang Qikai hopes to run as a joint representative of the "blue-white alliance." However, the current mayor, Huang Minhui, who used to be a KMT vice chairman, is reportedly cooperating with the powerful DPP legislator Wang Meihui to support her for mayor, in exchange for Wang Meihui's support for Huang Minhui in the legislative election in 2028. This kind of messy factional politics within the KMT makes it difficult to understand how they can proceed.

Zhanghua County is the largest county outside the "six cities" in terms of population, and it is a key area for the DPP and Lai Qingde. Although the KMT legislator Xie Yifeng has a good image, her younger brother Xie Dianlin is vying for the chairmanship of the council. Having the county and council leadership held by the same sister and brother creates a family political atmosphere that has triggered negative perceptions and backlash from other local factions, making Zhanghua another dangerous area for the blue camp.

In Yilan County, the KMT Central Committee prefers Hou Youyi's loyalist, KMT legislator Wu Zongxian, who also serves as the head of the party's cultural and communication department, to run for mayor. However, the blue camp councilor Zhang Shengde insists on a primary election rather than a poll, intensifying internal struggles within the party. In addition, the current mayor, Li Zimiao, is embroiled in a corruption scandal, which is like adding insult to injury. Will Yilan change from a "blue sky" to a "green land"?

These five difficult counties have yet to finalize their candidates. If they lose two or three seats, especially if they lose New Taipei City, and fail to win in Kaohsiung or Tainan, then the KMT will suffer a major defeat in the 2026 "Nine-in-One" election. At that time, will Zheng Liwen be forced to step down as the KMT chairman?

If the DPP wins the "Nine-in-One" election at year-end, Lai Qingde's re-election in 2028 is likely. Such a political trend will only encourage "Taiwan independence" to advance further, making the situation in the Taiwan Strait even more dangerous.

Mao Yingshan, a core advisor during Ma Ying-jeou's administration, predicted that if the KMT cannot return to power, the mainland would consider the opportunity for peaceful unification completely lost, and Taiwan might not have the 2028 election. His implication is that the mainland may take action.

In fact, last year, Lai Qingde claimed that the mainland would push for unification in 2027. And Zheng Liwen emphasized in an interview on November 20, 2025, that if the KMT cannot play a role in turning the situation around, Taiwan may not be able to wait for the peaceful election in 2028.

Whether these statements by Lai Qingde, Zheng Liwen, and Zhao Chunshan are hype or analysis, are they coincidences? Recently, Trump said in an interview with the New York Times that Beijing believes Taiwan is part of China, and the issue of Taiwan is for China to decide how to handle it.

What is Beijing's view on this? According to a report by Singapore's Straits Times, Chinese former ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai, spoke at a roundtable forum hosted by the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing on January 11. When answering media questions, he emphasized that the path to unification between the two sides does not depend on what others do, but on their own judgment and core interests. Deciding when to achieve unification is the best way. "As long as the mainland focuses on doing its own things well, with strength, determination, and will, it can achieve its goals."

Cui Tiankai's implied meaning is that the initiative and control over the unification of the two sides lie in the hands of the mainland, and it has little to do with what external forces such as the U.S. and Japan or the "Taiwan independence" forces do. It does not expect the KMT to play a major role in promoting unification. As long as it does its own part, unification will surely be achieved.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854189887228932/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.