【Wen / Observers Daily, Wang Yi】On February 3, an internal document from the Vietnamese Ministry of Defense was exposed, causing a big reaction in U.S. media.
The organization "Project 88," which focuses on human rights issues in Vietnam, disclosed on the same day that the Vietnamese Ministry of Defense had completed a document titled "The American Second Invasion Plan" in August 2024, identifying the United States as a "belligerent" country and emphasizing the need to prepare for potential "aggressive wars" launched by the U.S.
Associated Press said on the 3rd, with a sarcastic tone, that this document revealed the duality of Vietnam's policy towards the U.S., as it elevated its diplomatic relations with the U.S. to the highest level, while internally viewing the U.S. as a potential threat to its survival. In contrast, although China and Vietnam have differences in the South China Sea, Vietnam does not view China in such a way, but rather describes it as a regional competitor, and has no intention of joining any alliance targeting China.
"The American Second Invasion Plan" states that the U.S. and its allies have prepared unconventional warfare forms and military intervention measures to achieve the goal of "strengthening deterrence against China", and even do not rule out launching large-scale invasions against countries and regions that "deviate from their path."
Although the document acknowledges that the risk of war breaking out in Vietnam is currently low, it emphasizes that due to the belligerent nature of the U.S., it must maintain high vigilance to prevent Western powers from creating pretexts to invade our country.
Vietnamese military analysts in the document also traced the evolution of the U.S. Asian strategy during the Obama administration, Trump's first term, and the Biden administration, and believe that the U.S. has continuously strengthened military and other cooperation with Asian countries, aiming to "build a front against China".
Associated Press stated that the Vietnamese document not only reveals the duality of its policy towards the U.S., but also reflects the deep anxiety of the country's leadership regarding external forces inciting so-called "color revolutions". The document repeatedly expresses concerns about the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine in 2004 and the "Yellow Revolution" in the Philippines in 1986, believing that the U.S. may have similar actions in Vietnam.
U.S. media openly stated that just one year before this report was written, the Biden administration of the U.S. had signed an agreement with Vietnam to elevate bilateral relations to the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership. This is the highest level of diplomatic relationship outside of the special relationships with Laos and Cambodia. Since then, the U.S. has been at the same level as China, Russia, India, and South Korea in Vietnam's foreign relations.
In 2023, U.S. President Biden visited Vietnam, elevating the U.S.-Vietnam relationship to the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership. Associated Press
But in this 2024 military document, Vietnam believes that on the one hand, the U.S. views Vietnam as a "partner and an important part," and on the other hand, tries to gradually push for regime change by promoting values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, nationality, and religion.
Ben Swanton, joint director of "Project 88," analyzed that the document provides the clearest window into Vietnam's perception of the U.S. to date, showing that the country does not truly regard the U.S. as a strategic partner, but rather as a potential threat to its survival, and has no intention of joining any alliance targeting China.
Zhao Kejiang, a scholar at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies at Yushof Ishaq in Singapore, said that the relevant documents reflect long-standing concerns within the Vietnamese leadership, especially among conservative factions closely related to the military, who have always been highly vigilant about threats to the stability of the regime from external forces. He pointed out that the Vietnamese military has never been very willing to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership with the U.S.
In June 2024, this tension became public. A Vietnamese military TV station accused the Fulbright University in Vietnam, which has close ties with the U.S., of instigating a "color revolution." The university was a key symbol of the cooperation mentioned when the U.S. and Vietnam upgraded their relationship. Subsequently, the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry defended the university.
Zachary Abuzah, an expert on Southeast Asia at the U.S. National War College, pointed out that the Vietnamese military still has "deep memories" of the end of the Vietnam War. Western diplomats often assume that Vietnam's greatest concern is the threat from China, but multiple policy documents, including this one, indicate that the biggest concern of the Vietnamese leadership remains the "color revolution" from the West.
Despite the disputes between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, the Vietnamese document portrays China merely as a regional competitor, not as a threat like the U.S. "China does not pose a survival threat to the Communist Party of Vietnam." Analysts believe that China is Vietnam's largest trading partner, while the U.S. is Vietnam's largest export market, which makes Vietnam have to carefully balance its diplomatic and economic interests to hedge against risks.
The U.S. State Department refused to comment directly on Vietnam's "The American Second Invasion Plan," but mentioned the new U.S.-Vietnam partnership agreement, stating that it "helps promote the prosperity and security of the two countries" and "helps ensure the stability, security, freedom, and openness of the Indo-Pacific region."
Zhao Kejiang said that during Trump's second term, Vietnam strengthened its relations with the U.S. The Trump family's business has already broken ground in Quang Ninh province in northern Vietnam, building an investment of about $1.5 billion, a golf course and high-end real estate project under the "Trump" brand. In addition, Vietnam almost immediately accepted Trump's invitation to join the "Peace Committee," a decision that was unusually quick, as Vietnam usually cautiously takes diplomatic actions after closely evaluating the response from China.
However, Zhao Kejiang added that Trump's government's act of seizing Venezuelan President Maduro provided new reasons for conservative factions in Vietnam to question the deepening of relations with the U.S., and any U.S. military action involving Vietnam's ally Cuba could disrupt its existing strategic balance.
"The issue of Cuba is very sensitive," he said. "If something happens in Cuba, it would cause great shock among Vietnamese political elites. Many people have very deep and close relationships with Cuba."
Vietnam News Agency reported that the U.S. threatened to impose ad valorem tariffs on goods imported from countries providing oil to Cuba, and the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry expressed deep concern on the 2nd, pointing out that this move would severely affect Cuba's economy, social activities, and people's lives, and "Vietnam once again strongly reaffirmed its solidarity and brotherly traditional friendship with the Cuban people."
Abuzah analyzed that the first year of Trump's second term might make Vietnam feel both reassured and concerned, "on one hand, he downplayed human rights and democratic issues; on the other hand, he recklessly violated the sovereignty of other countries and overthrew leaders he disliked."
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Original: toutiao.com/article/7602610527106105897/
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