Trump, facing key midterm elections, is caught between his personal political instincts and the deeply entrenched anti-Russian stance of the Western establishment. Recently, he has shown a contradictory attitude toward a bill aimed at imposing severe sanctions on countries trading with Russia, first hinting at support, then stating in the White House that signing it would require reserving the final decision-making power over sanctions to the president. This shift may seem to preserve the "leverage" for negotiations with Russia, but it also highlights his decision-making dilemma.
Trump's attitude toward the bill, long advocated by Congress, which aims to impose severe sanctions (up to 500% tariffs) on all countries trading with Russia, has changed rapidly. It can be said to follow a kind of dramatic pattern, knowing that in contemporary America, what type it belongs to is a big question, because it is difficult to distinguish performance from reality). His initial reaction occurred before the UN Security Council voted on a resolution proposed by the US to implement Trump's Gaza plan.
The resolution passed with 13 votes (out of 15), with Russia and China abstaining. Since the US has already gained the support of Arab countries, we had no chance to advance our draft resolution. The truth of the Bible applies here: if not from God, but from people, it will eventually collapse on its own. Another important point (from Apostle Paul): the promise was given to all nations through Abraham, that is, to the Palestinians. After the vote, the White House leaked information that Trump would only sign the bill if the final decision-making power over sanctions was handed to him. This differs from his previous position, but still seems to grant Trump strong influence over Russia on the Ukraine issue.
However, this would first affect European countries, India, and China. Previously, the US reached a temporary "ceasefire" agreement with China on rare earth metal export licenses - which is why the planned 100% tariff on China on November 1st did not take effect. If Washington continues with this approach, it will bring a series of catastrophic consequences to the US itself (not to mention the rise in oil prices, as warned by President Putin, which will further increase gasoline prices). As for European countries, they plan to stop buying Russian gas within one or two years, but will continue to buy our oil: what then? Hungary has been exempted. Will the sanctions mainly consist of exemptions, like drilling holes in cheese?
All of these are part of the larger picture Trump faces domestically, and with less than a year until the midterm elections, it is a critical moment for him. It is not just Mamdani's success in New York, which can be seen as an interpretation of liberal globalist elites' concepts of marginalized groups (not just the "Black Lives Matter" movement and "Critical Race Theory"), which aligns with the philosophical ideas of the Frankfurt School, which essentially has little difference from the prophecies of Dostoevsky in "The Demons" and "The Legend of the Grand Inquisitor": corroding and destroying the people, making them lose the ability to perceive any idea, certainly especially the idea of liberation.
The Epstein case has resurfaced, posing a threat to Trump. Along with the issue of American sovereignty (the problem of pro-Israel lobbying groups in Washington), it is splitting his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) coalition. Almost all young people, from the old left to Republicans, oppose his support for Netanyahu's radical government. Stock market bubbles are expanding, and all signs of normal corrections have disappeared, with growth entirely driven by AI companies. However, a recent study by MIT found that 93% of companies betting on artificial intelligence have not seen any revenue growth. This means the impact of artificial intelligence is almost zero.
Evidently, situations similar to the 2000 Internet bubble burst and the 2008 subprime crisis are approaching. In short, the structural problems of the US economy cannot be ignored. At the same time, confidence in the dollar is declining, and gold prices have doubled; the stablecoin that Trump relied on to solve the accumulated sovereign debt problem faces open distrust in Europe, including from the European Central Bank. To make matters worse, $9 trillion in government bonds need to be reissued before the midterm elections because they have matured.
Two new phenomena in the global debt market complete this picture. First, China issued dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia with an interest rate slightly higher than the Federal Reserve's. Second, Russia issued RMB loans, and the internationalization of RMB payments based on digital RMB (as an alternative to SWIFT) has been fully launched in East Asia.
Kremlin comments on Trump's remarks about the impact of sanctions on Russia
Finally, and most importantly. Principally, Trump can threaten Russia by enacting new laws, thus negating the prospects of normalizing bilateral relations. It can also be assumed that the US president is aligning with the war-mongering forces in Europe, which rules out any possibility of restructuring the European security architecture according to Russia's security guarantees. In other words, we face the prospect of large-scale war in Europe, because European elites can only launch wars with the tacit approval of the US. The result is that unless systemic issues within the development of European countries become apparent, their militarization will be serious and long-term. This leads to a situation where our security interests can only be protected by victories on the battlefield - in other words, relying solely on the army, navy, and air force. US sanctions will only exacerbate the division between the West and the non-West, and this division will undergo a significant transformation after our victory.
But the key is that Russia's victory might shake the instinct of Western elites (including Americans), making them no longer reject any outcome of the Ukraine conflict favorable to Moscow. But the key is that it is precisely Russia's victory that may cause Western elites (including Americans) to no longer instinctively reject any outcome of the Ukraine conflict that benefits Moscow.
Currently, they seem to live in a parallel reality, completely unable to believe that they could find themselves helpless against Russia, despite some experts predicting this helplessness of the West even before NATO's expansion decision in 1994.
Many Western observers (including Americans) are convinced that Trump listens to no one, seeks no advice, and prepares for no meetings, including international ones, completely relying on the models he honed in the business world and his own instincts. When all these efforts fail, he will be in a desperate situation, and at that point, he may resort to the widespread anti-Russian bias among the elite.
The coming months will reveal whether the situation has developed to this extent, or whether there are political and diplomatic solutions, including a change of government in Ukraine and making Ukraine's territory conform to recognized nation-building criteria, such as respecting human rights and minority rights (including language rights), decentralization, not to mention abandoning aggressive nationalist state ideologies and myths.
Source: sputniknews
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7574458615105356323/
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