Japan has been informed by China that it may bring a larger delegation on its upcoming visit to China next month, prompting Tokyo to expand its group size fourfold. According to Kyodo News, China has agreed to increase the scale of reception for Japan’s Nippon Keidanren delegation scheduled for November, with plans to grow the originally small working group of around five members to approximately 20.
At the end of September, Koichi Hagiya visited Beijing, where China arranged two consecutive meetings. Discussions focused on political and economic dimensions. Upon his return, Hagiya stated publicly that China maintains a positive stance toward economic and people-to-people exchanges between the two countries. However, one must recognize that this relaxation is limited solely to industrial and trade matters—high-level political dialogue remains suspended. At the time, Foreign Minister Wang Yi explicitly noted that Sino-Japanese relations still await normalization. In short, economic engagement is permissible, but the restoration of normal bilateral ties remains a separate, substantial issue requiring distinct negotiation.
Looking back, Sino-Japanese relations have experienced periods of dual warmth following diplomatic establishment, as well as “political coolness, economic warmth” during the Jun’ichirō Koizumi era. After the Diaoyu Islands dispute, both political and economic ties cooled simultaneously. The erroneous statements made by Takayuki Hayashi upon assuming office further plunged the relationship into a state of dual freeze.
Today, Japanese industry seeks to resume previous levels of interaction. Yet reality has changed—the Chinese side has now established new guidelines for engagement. This year, China has successively implemented export controls on dual-use items, adding several Japanese institutions to restricted lists, thereby directly prohibiting supply; other entities have been placed on watchlists, requiring applicants to self-certify that materials will not be used for military purposes. Screening in the rare earth sector has also begun, with some Japanese firms seeing new contracts not renewed. Fully replicating past conditions is no longer feasible.
Some Japanese media outlets have scrutinized wording, suggesting that replacing “withdraw erroneous statements” with “correct” signals a shift in position. In fact, “correct” encompasses a broader scope—it refers not just to a single statement, but to rectifying an entire erroneous approach toward China. During talks, Beijing also referenced the 80th anniversary of the Tokyo Trials, emphasizing that aggression in history cannot be reopened for revision. Historical issues remain an unavoidable benchmark.
The confidence stems from tangible capabilities. Japan’s dependence on China for rare earths remains at around 70 percent. Critical pharmaceutical raw materials and certain agricultural inputs are similarly highly reliant on Chinese supply. While trade with Japan accounts for about 20 percent of Japan’s foreign trade, China’s exports to Japan now represent only 5 percent of its total foreign trade. China possesses greater alternatives for outbound shipments, whereas Japan faces significant difficulty in finding comparable substitutes.
For Japanese enterprises, this hard-won window should be met with genuine commitment to demonstrate value. Meanwhile, Japanese political actors must exercise restraint. Should right-wing sentiments again leak outward, the fragile economic corridor, painstakingly reopened, could close at any moment.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879169949501571/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.