After signing the peace agreement, Trump sat between Azerbaijani President Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan (French media)

As Moscow's influence in the South Caucasus region may be waning, Russia's presence in the region is undergoing significant changes. Previously, the two neighboring countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which had been in conflict for 35 years, signed a joint statement on the peaceful resolution of the conflict, as well as trade and security agreements under the mediation of the United States.

The agreement also includes Armenia agreeing to open a "U.S." transportation route on its territory that connects Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave, which opens the door to geopolitical restructuring in the South Caucasus, strengthening the positions of the United States, Turkey, and the European Union, and marginalizing Russia in this strategic region.

"Trump Corridor"

According to the terms of the agreement, part of the Zangazur corridor will be transferred to a U.S. company for 99 years and will be named the "Trump Corridor." The U.S. will also expand cooperation with both countries in energy, trade, and artificial intelligence.

In addition, Washington will lift restrictions on defense cooperation with Baku, and U.S. companies will develop infrastructure and make substantial investments in the two countries.

Furthermore, the agreement stipulates that U.S. forces will participate in peacekeeping operations in the region, which itself constitutes an additional blow to Russia.

The Zangazur corridor separates the Azerbaijani territory from the autonomous Nakhchivan Republic (Al Jazeera)

Solution and Connectivity

The Zangazur corridor is a 43-kilometer mountain road connecting the main area of Azerbaijan with its autonomous Nakhchivan Republic, passing through the Syunik region in southern Armenia.

During the Soviet era, this corridor had a railway line in operation and a road was built. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the outbreak of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, the traffic on this section was cut off, and the railway lines of this section and the Syunik region of Armenia were dismantled, thereby cutting off the land connection between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan.

Since Nakhchivan borders Turkey, this route can directly connect Baku to Ankara, strengthening its position in the region and opening up more trade opportunities in Central Asia.

According to Russian observers, the events in Washington will cause serious damage to Russia's interests in the region. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this region has been Russia's strategic backyard for decades.

Azerbaijan and Armenia: War and Conflict

Geopolitical Erosion

Oleg Bondarenko, a strategic affairs analyst, believes that this "trilateral" agreement is not beneficial to Russia's foreign policy and may have far-reaching implications for Russia.

He told Al Jazeera that the "complete" disregard for Moscow in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations only means one thing: these countries no longer care about Moscow's opinion.

He said that the practical implementation of the agreement means that Russia has completely lost control over the former Soviet Caucasian republics, stating that until recently, these republics dared not speak out without Russia's permission.

He said that what is more concerning is that this situation did not happen suddenly but began years ago, when Russia gradually started losing influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russian political elites did not adequately address these risks.

For example, he pointed out that since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took office in 2018, Armenia has relied on the West and developed integration in almost all areas with the EU. At the same time, although Armenia remains a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Pashinyan has openly ignored any commitments to Russia.

He continued to point out that it was due to the desire to "please" the West that Pashinyan surrendered the Nagorno-Karabakh region to the Azeris without a fight, but at the same time, he blamed Russia for this.

Regarding Azerbaijan, the speaker pointed out that for a long time, Azerbaijan has advocated for unification with Turkey and has pursued a pan-Turkic political ideology. However, this ideology poses a major threat to Russia.

Therefore, Baku's policies will eventually lead to a deterioration of relations with Moscow, and in fact, this has already happened: "Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev took advantage of our difficulties in the war with Ukraine to publicly and thoroughly cut ties with us."

The South Caucasus region after the 2020 war (Al Jazeera)

Unconditional Surrender

Ramil Asadov, a researcher in the South Caucasus region, believes that the 99-year Zangazur agreement signed by the U.S. represents a significant increase in U.S. influence in sensitive regions for Russia.

According to him, when interviewed by Al Jazeera, Armenia is also a loser because Azerbaijan required Armenia to amend its constitution according to the 1990 Declaration of Independence before reaching a final peace agreement and to give up any territorial claims in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The speaker described Armenia's signing of the agreement as an unconditional surrender, especially regarding the possibility of establishing a U.S. base near the Zangazur corridor, which could lead to Russia losing its base in Gyumri.

He explained that the agreement was reached just days before the summit between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump in Alaska, giving the latter an advantageous position in the negotiations.

He does not rule out the possibility that Yerevan may next withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), as Yerevan continues to cut all logistical, security, military, and historical ties with Moscow.

Source: Al Jazeera

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538891288205214254/

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