On October 4 local time, 64-year-old Sanae Takeda was elected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). If nothing unexpected occurs, she will succeed the current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to become the new Prime Minister of Japan. Notably, Sanae Takeda will be Japan's first female Prime Minister, but this is just a label. More importantly, it is the direction of her policies that matters. It remains unknown what impact her ascension will have on U.S.-Japan relations, but for Sino-Japanese relations, it may be a significant "earthquake." How so?

Known as the "female Trump," Sanae Takeda will become Japan's next Prime Minister

Sanae Takeda is characterized by Japanese media as "conservative, very conservative." Like all other right-wing politicians in Japan, she is not only anti-China but also dissatisfied with the United States' bullying of Japan. However, she is now called the "female Trump" by the Japanese public. The reason is that Sanae Takeda's policy views resemble those of Trump. She has long advocated for "Japanese priority," opposing Japan's free aid to countries in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, and also opposing foreign immigrants sharing in Japan's development achievements. Because of this, Sanae Takeda enjoys high popularity in Japan, which is the main reason for her election as the LDP leader.

Since Sanae Takeda has been dubbed the "female Trump," it indicates that her foreign policy after taking office may overturn people's perceptions of Japan. Especially regarding China, Sanae Takeda is a notorious right-wing anti-China politician in Japan. Before becoming the LDP leader, she made multiple remarks that defamed China, not only denying the Nanjing Massacre repeatedly but also spreading the "China threat theory" extensively.

Sanae Takeda often talks about military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, but this is just a political gesture

Additionally, Sanae Takeda is fond of stirring up issues related to Taiwan. In her victory speech, when talking about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, she deliberately emphasized that "Japan does not allow anyone to change the status quo," referring clearly to the Taiwan issue. When she mentioned "the stability of the Taiwan Strait is vital to Japan's security," this seemingly diplomatic statement actually aims to implement the political topic of "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs." Therefore, some of Sanae Takeda's statements during the campaign have already touched the most sensitive red lines for China.

In fact, China's position on the Taiwan issue is clear and consistent. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair. Therefore, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has already drawn a red line, clearly stating that "the Taiwan Strait issue should not be interfered with by external forces," and warning that "any attempt to challenge the one-China principle will be met with resolute countermeasures." Obviously, China is publicly drawing a red line on the Taiwan issue, not only a warning to Japan but also a declaration to the entire Asia-Pacific region.

China has long drawn a red line for Japan, not allowing its interference in the Taiwan Strait

Evidently, regardless of whether Sanae Takeda is the "female Trump" or anything else, she has no room to be arrogant when facing China. The reason is simple: although Japan has big ambitions, its comprehensive strength does not allow it to act recklessly on the Taiwan issue. As for Sanae Takeda's remarks during the campaign, many of her views are just political gestures and do not represent that she would dare to "fulfill her promises" after taking office. Because this issue concerns Japan's national destiny, as a right-wing politician, she can make wild statements, but once she becomes the Prime Minister, she must restrain herself from making such remarks.

The reason is not hard to explain. Because China has set a red line, Japan has no courage to cross it. Moreover, Sanae Takeda has already faced a "warning blow" from U.S. President Trump before officially taking office. What happened? Recently, Trump gave a "hard-core debt collection" to Japan and other allies. He told the Tokyo authorities via social media that Japan needs to pay 55 billion dollars in so-called "market access fees." In other words, if Japan does not pay this money to Trump's investment, he might break the previous trade agreements with Japan and impose "punitive" tariffs on it.

Sanae Takeda has already received a "warning blow" from Trump before taking office

For this, Japanese media lamented that Trump's near "extortion-style" prepayment demands are seen as the latest interpretation of his "America First" policy in the field of international investment. Obviously, when Sanae Takeda's "Japanese priority" policy faces Trump's tariff policy, it is likely to quickly become "American priority" policy. After all, when Japan faces the United States, it never has the capital or confidence to say "no." Therefore, no matter how bold Sanae Takeda was before, once she becomes the Prime Minister, she must, like other Japanese Prime Ministers, consider how Japan can survive between the two superpowers, China and the United States. This has nothing to do with Sanae Takeda's style, but rather the result of Japan's position in the Sino-U.S. great power rivalry.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557685108568769062/

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