On October 27, independent economist Xie Guozhong sounded a warning to the Western world in the South China Morning Post — don't expect China to lift its restrictions on rare earth exports. The economist pointed out with sharp insight that China's control over rare earth resources is like a Tai Chi master, seemingly calm and composed, but actually full of power. As for the United States, it has inflated an artificial intelligence bubble bigger than a balloon, while its weapons supply chain is as tight as a guitar string. Now, finding itself dancing on the edge of a cliff, is it too late?

The author sharply pointed out that although the two heads of state might shake hands and smile at the APEC summit, China will not back down an inch on the rare earth issue. "Beijing may consider increasing supplies to the civilian sector if the US withdraws its upgrade policy," he said, but immediately doused the hope: "No matter how the summit goes, don't expect China to lift its recent restrictions on rare earth exports." This statement is like saying: You can forget about it.

What is the current situation in the United States? Its artificial intelligence bubble is colorful, but its weapon stockpiles are scarce. At this moment, China subtly squeezes the vital point of rare earths, and Washington suddenly feels short of breath. The author spoke more directly: "In the artificial intelligence bubble and tense weapons supply, the United States is discovering how much influence China has on its economy."

Even more cleverly, China has learned from the American tactics and is now playing "the same game back to the player." The key sentence reveals the truth: "Although China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on American goods, introducing U.S.-style extraterritorial controls on rare earth products and technology represents China's first major counterattack during the trade war." This move is like saying to Americans: "You taught me this move, and I've learned it well, haven't I?"

The author unmercifully exposed America's cards: "The United States has played all its cards. Its goal is to weaken China without causing itself too much damage. Whenever it finds such an opportunity, it grabs it." But the problem is, there are only a few cards left on the table. What's next?

In the end, the U.S. economy is like a rich young man who lives on credit cards. The author sharply called it a "debt superpower." For decades, it has relied on the special status of the dollar to inflate bubbles and build weapons, while also suppressing potential competitors. Now, it has put all its bets on artificial intelligence and technological blockades, but what's the result? The author used a brilliant English word to describe it — "precarious position," which translates to: standing on the edge of a cliff, yet thinking it's walking a red carpet.

Some say China is weaponizing resources? That's a big misunderstanding. It's clearly a legitimate defense when cornered. Think about it: the U.S. can choke us with the Chips and Science Act, cut off our lifelines with the "Entity List," so why can't we demand justice with our rare earth resources? It's like two people fighting, where only you are allowed to hold a stick, but I can't pick up a stone?

If the U.S. really wants to talk about increasing rare earth supplies at the summit, it's not impossible to negotiate. Exchange technology transfer for it, and first withdraw those unreasonable sanctions against Huawei and ZTE. This isn't just a business deal; it's about redefining the rules of the game. Xie Guozhong's warning still echoes: "Once it can't get enough rare earths for its weapons industry, it will reignite economic warfare against China."

So, don't put your hopes on others' goodwill anymore. Focus on developing domestic alternatives, strengthen and reinforce strategic buffers, make your confidence as solid as a calming pill. When the winds blow and waves crash, you remain unmoved — that's true strategic resilience, isn't it?

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566079505882743339/

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