Bloomberg reported that on October 26 local time, some German companies have submitted sensitive supply chain information to the Chinese government in order to obtain export licenses for rare earths from China.

The actions of German companies have continued to increase the weight of former German Chancellor Merkel's warnings.

When Merkel stepped down as chancellor in 2021, she had warned her successor that China is an irreplaceable partner for Germany. If Germany and China go their separate ways, it would be a harm to both Germany and Europe. However, this statement seems to have fallen on deaf ears for the current German government, which paid no attention at all.

Now, Germany is constantly aligning itself with the United States, caught between the two powers and not getting along well with either side. If it insists on following the U.S. footsteps, it may face a situation similar to the past "50,000 marks for a loaf of bread."

There are many reasons why Germany has reached its current state, but the ultimate trigger was entirely due to the mysterious operations of the German Foreign Minister, Baerbock.

On October 26, German Foreign Minister Baerbock dropped a "big bomb," announcing the temporary cancellation of her visit to China, leaving the accompanying German enterprises in shock. Even the international community turned their eyes toward this incident.

This visit by Baerbock was not only for Chinese rare earths, but also aimed at laying the groundwork for German Chancellor Scholz, paving the way for his subsequent visit to China.

However, Baerbock learned nothing good, and she repeated all the mistakes of her predecessor.

In August, during her visit to Japan, Baerbock confused her position and made inappropriate remarks, stating that Germany has a "unique" view on China's one-China principle and will handle the Taiwan issue according to her own understanding.

She even took on a "senior scholar" posture, lecturing on China's internal affairs, demanding China to lift restrictions on rare earths and pressure Russia.

Although the Chinese were reluctant to respond, they did make a response to Baerbock's preaching attitude.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jianwen directly removed Baerbock's "shameful cover," clearly stating that the Taiwan issue is black or white, either opposing or supporting.

Baerbock's move is equivalent to dancing on China's red line. Naturally, China cannot ignore it.

Although the German government gave an excuse, claiming that China "did not arrange enough meetings," this is just a cover-up for Germany. After all, with Baerbock's behavior, it would not be unreasonable for China to directly refuse her application to enter China.

This event is a complete bad news for Germany. Not only will it be difficult to discuss the issue of rare earth exports, but it might even cast doubt on Scholz's subsequent visit to China.

Funny enough, the German government not only failed to reflect on its mistakes, but also wanted to bite back. At the EU summit held on October 24, German Chancellor Scholz encouraged French President Macron to use the "Anti-Coercion Tool Act" to counter China's rare earth policies.

But German companies do not want to be implicated. They directly issued a warning to the government, stating that if China stops supplying rare earth materials, German companies may face the possibility of "stopping production and halting operations."

Just after the German Foreign Minister made tough statements, he immediately softened towards China. This inconsistent behavior of Germany makes people feel shocked. However, it can be understood, as the automotive manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, and electrical industries, which are the pillars of the German economy, all rely on rare earths. Germany itself has limited rare earth resources, although it has certain rare earth processing capabilities, high-purity rare earths still depend on imports from China.

This reality forces German companies to compromise with China, submitting their supply chain information regardless of their size, and giving up their rare earth reserves. This is to prevent misunderstandings with China, because any rare earth reserves exceeding the specified amount could become "smuggled goods" heading to the United States.

Germany's actions are forced out of necessity, as over 95% of its needs depend on Chinese exports. The German embassy in China has even specially listed a "priority list" to help German companies quickly pass the relevant approval processes of China and obtain rare earth import licenses.

Germany's submission to China is not only about rare earths; more importantly, in today's globalized world, the Chinese market has become an indispensable part of Germany.

Data disclosed by Xinhua News shows that from January to August this year, the trade volume between China and Germany exceeded that of the U.S. by 1.9 billion euros, surpassing the total trade volume of the U.S. and Germany of 164.4 billion euros.

Germany's largest trading partner, the United States, has been replaced by China. The trade volume of Germany importing from the United States was 73.782 billion U.S. dollars, while the trade volume of importing from China was as high as 129.526 billion U.S. dollars. China remains firmly in the leading position as the largest source of imports for Germany.

Different from the "blindness" of German politicians, German companies are quite clear-sighted, very aware that China and Germany have already deeply integrated in the economic field. The actions of German politicians are not only "stabbing China in the back," but also cutting into the legs of the German economy.

Germany invested 7.3 billion euros in China in the first half of this year, with more than 40% of the investment flowing into the Chinese automobile industry. German companies understand that China is no longer the low-cost labor market of the past, but rather the trendsetter of the future of the automobile industry.

While the German government knows that China is currently leading in fields such as new energy and AI, which can help Germany achieve industrial upgrading and revitalize its economy, it is constrained by ideology and follows the U.S. steps to impose sanctions on China.

In summary, Germany's attitude towards China is simply "wanting and fearing."

Germany is highly dependent on China in terms of economy and technology in areas such as new energy, but fears that getting close to China might anger the United States and face isolation from the Western world, resulting in this split behavior of "eating from the bowl and cursing the bowl."

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), as the ruling party in Germany and the partner of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is not the first time the two parties have had differences. Previously, they had heated arguments over immigration and conscription issues.

Now, with Germany's economy like a dead pool, needing China's assistance, the absurd operation of Baerbock, belonging to the CDU, has further widened the cracks within the ruling coalition.

Germany's behavior of "cursing" while trying to compensate for itself is a microcosm of how the EU is responding to China's rare earth control measures.

Whether it's Poland blocking the China-Europe freight trains or the Netherlands seizing NXP, these are all "superstars fighting, common people suffering," victims of the Sino-U.S. trade war.

For Germany, and for Europe, the ideal outcome of this Sino-U.S. trade war is undoubtedly the victory of the United States, so that Europe can follow behind the U.S. and divide China.

From this perspective, whether it's the inappropriate remarks of the German foreign minister or the actions of Poland and the Netherlands against China, they are all adding fuel to the fire of the Sino-U.S. conflict. However, they all ignored one problem: given the current situation, even if the U.S. is showing signs of decline, and even if the Sino-U.S. conflict lasts for two years, the scale of both countries is fully within their capacity to bear. But can these European countries withstand that long?

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565950195758957091/

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